By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: PS4 to sell a minimum of around 70% of its lifetime sells in the first 2 to 3 years in the market.

Tagged games:

JoeTheBro on 08 January 2014
kitler53 said:
only 8 days into the year and we already have our first contender for fail thread of the year...

It's not going to win. The competition is too strong.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=175523



Links

Around the Network
Kaizar on 08 January 2014
greenmedic88 said:
No.

To the prediction based upon nothing; not so much as an explanation as to why PS4 sales would be so heavily front loaded such as the case was with the Wii, the short answer is no.

I'd say this prediction should be pinned in your signature, but my guess is that you'll be long gone before 2-3 years is up.




And what do you say about people who say the exact samething about the 3DS?



Fusioncode on 08 January 2014
Kaizar said:
Ponyless said:
Kaizar said:
JoeTheBro said:
Kaizar said:

It was "Fusioncode" & "Seece" who said 150 million in the first 30 days:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5933493

 

JoeTheBro must be too lazy, I guess.


They were mocking you.


Okay.

Seece also said to someone, that in the first 15 days, the PS2 was in 1 out of every 2.5 homes in Europe, or some crap like that.

 

Anyways thanks.

Seece also mock some other users besides me. I think one of them was Jizz who was made fun of.

They were mocking you twice, you said most Playstation gamers buy everything in the first 30 days, therefore implying  PS2 sold 150 million in 30 days. The 1 out of every 2.5 homes was because after that you stated that the PS2 sold 150 million in 30 days as a fact, then that would mean that 1 out of every 2.5 homes in the UK owned a PS2 in 15 days. You were just too dense to get it.

No, I just thought they were human beings who wouldn't do anything to get banned. My bad, for assuming humanity in them.

How is it my fault that you don't get obvious sarcasm? How the hell could you believe the PS2 sold 150m units in 30 days? That's beyond fail. If I tell you that vampires exist are you going to believe me? 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

DerNebel on 08 January 2014
Kaizar said:
greenmedic88 said:
No.

To the prediction based upon nothing; not so much as an explanation as to why PS4 sales would be so heavily front loaded such as the case was with the Wii, the short answer is no.

I'd say this prediction should be pinned in your signature, but my guess is that you'll be long gone before 2-3 years is up.




And what do you say about people who say the exact samething about the 3DS?

I've only seen people predict that 3DS sales will be down from this year onwards and looking at the numbers this is a reasonable thing to believe.

Also I refuse to believe that a 27 year old man that has been on this site for a year now, seriously thought that the PS2 sold 150mil in 30 days, that is just ridiculous.



theprof00 on 08 January 2014

Either way, well, you're not far off from the truth. It's just that your numbers are wrong.
Consoles sell more in a bell curve over a 5-7 year period. It's games that sell the most in 30 days.
I think it's said that 50-70% of a game's total average volume occurs within the first couple weeks.
Consoles on the other hand are more like 50% in 2.5-3.5 years, with a good percentage of sales happening both at launch and at the mid-way point.
ie; sales will continue to slow, until japan launch, then christmas, then slow some more, then pick up at christmas, then there will be a price cut, sales will improve and imrpove until the midway point.



Around the Network
zorg1000 on 08 January 2014
Kaizar said:
greenmedic88 said:
No.

To the prediction based upon nothing; not so much as an explanation as to why PS4 sales would be so heavily front loaded such as the case was with the Wii, the short answer is no.

I'd say this prediction should be pinned in your signature, but my guess is that you'll be long gone before 2-3 years is up.




And what do you say about people who say the exact samething about the 3DS?

People who say that are actually basing there prediction off of reality. 3DS was down in Japan in 2013 compared to 2012 despite have many huge games like Pokemon X/Y, Monster Hunter 4, Puzzles & Dragons, Dragon Quest VII, Friend Collection: New Life which all sold over 1 million. 2014 will likely be down even more since as of now its line up isnt nearly as strong as 2013. Kirby, Yoshi, and Smash will all do great but highly doubtful they will boost hardware more than 2013 games.

As for America/Europe they were up slightly in 2013 but not nearly as much as one would expect with Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, Donkey Kong Country, Animal Crossing, Mario & Luigi, Legend of Zelda, Mario Party, Pokemon X/Y and a new sku that reduces the price by $40 and was even on sale for $99 over the holidays. A line up like that should have caused to be up YoY by alot more than they actually were. Sales will likely be down next year.

3DS and PS4 are in no way comparable since many Nintendo platforms throughout the years have been very frontloaded (N64/GC/GBC/GBA/Wii) while PS1/PS2/PS3/PSP have all had extremely long legs so there is no reason to believe that PS4 will break that trend and sell the majority of its lifetime sales in the first 2-3 years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Pavolink on 08 January 2014

No. I actually expect PS4 to fell apart and with short legs like the PS3. It won't be like the Wii because there's nothing outstanding on that console like the motion controls to make people buy it as an impulse.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


greenmedic88 on 08 January 2014
Kaizar said:
greenmedic88 said:
No.

To the prediction based upon nothing; not so much as an explanation as to why PS4 sales would be so heavily front loaded such as the case was with the Wii, the short answer is no.

I'd say this prediction should be pinned in your signature, but my guess is that you'll be long gone before 2-3 years is up.


And what do you say about people who say the exact samething about the 3DS?

I haven't heard anyone saying the exact same thing about the 3DS. 

Go ahead and post links so I can poke a bunch of holes in their wish fulfillment theories as well. 

The 3DS is essentially keeping Nintendo afloat currently and I don't see that changing even over the next 2-3 years. 



Kaizar on 09 January 2014
theprof00 said:
Either way, well, you're not far off from the truth. It's just that your numbers are wrong.
Consoles sell more in a bell curve over a 5-7 year period. It's games that sell the most in 30 days.
I think it's said that 50-70% of a game's total average volume occurs within the first couple weeks.
Consoles on the other hand are more like 50% in 2.5-3.5 years, with a good percentage of sales happening both at launch and at the mid-way point.
ie; sales will continue to slow, until japan launch, then christmas, then slow some more, then pick up at christmas, then there will be a price cut, sales will improve and imrpove until the midway point.


Great post. And very good points.

Thanks.



theprof00 on 09 January 2014
Kaizar said:
theprof00 said:
Either way, well, you're not far off from the truth. It's just that your numbers are wrong.
Consoles sell more in a bell curve over a 5-7 year period. It's games that sell the most in 30 days.
I think it's said that 50-70% of a game's total average volume occurs within the first couple weeks.
Consoles on the other hand are more like 50% in 2.5-3.5 years, with a good percentage of sales happening both at launch and at the mid-way point.
ie; sales will continue to slow, until japan launch, then christmas, then slow some more, then pick up at christmas, then there will be a price cut, sales will improve and imrpove until the midway point.


Great post. And very good points.

Thanks.

Hey no problem man. I know the numbers can take some getting used to. Hell, it's been 4 years for me and I still don't understand it all as much as I'd like