Prediction: PS4 to sell a minimum of around 70% of its lifetime sells in the first 2 to 3 years in the market.

[zorg1000]

Kaizar said:

greenmedic88 said:
No.

To the prediction based upon nothing; not so much as an explanation as to why PS4 sales would be so heavily front loaded such as the case was with the Wii, the short answer is no.

I'd say this prediction should be pinned in your signature, but my guess is that you'll be long gone before 2-3 years is up.

And what do you say about people who say the exact samething about the 3DS?

People who say that are actually basing there prediction off of reality. 3DS was down in Japan in 2013 compared to 2012 despite have many huge games like Pokemon X/Y, Monster Hunter 4, Puzzles & Dragons, Dragon Quest VII, Friend Collection: New Life which all sold over 1 million. 2014 will likely be down even more since as of now its line up isnt nearly as strong as 2013. Kirby, Yoshi, and Smash will all do great but highly doubtful they will boost hardware more than 2013 games.

As for America/Europe they were up slightly in 2013 but not nearly as much as one would expect with Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, Donkey Kong Country, Animal Crossing, Mario & Luigi, Legend of Zelda, Mario Party, Pokemon X/Y and a new sku that reduces the price by $40 and was even on sale for $99 over the holidays. A line up like that should have caused to be up YoY by alot more than they actually were. Sales will likely be down next year.

3DS and PS4 are in no way comparable since many Nintendo platforms throughout the years have been very frontloaded (N64/GC/GBC/GBA/Wii) while PS1/PS2/PS3/PSP have all had extremely long legs so there is no reason to believe that PS4 will break that trend and sell the majority of its lifetime sales in the first 2-3 years.