AAA300 said:
E3 may kill some hype too if one console out shines the rest! |
i agree. and we know nintendo will probably not show up again (especially since we already know most of their projects)
It's a problem with the XBONE, and potentially a problem with the PS4. Check this image:
Except for the first week, the Wii U was selling better world wide than the XBONE. The last week of Dec. however was when sales plumeted. It was a mix of the hype dying and the end of the holidays. This drop off happens to every non supply constrained console. It'll happen to XBONE and it'll probably happen to PS4.
With XBONE it's in a very similar situation to the Wii U. Lots of stock and low demand but still selling pretty good. The problem is the XBONE is doing best in America. What caused the 360 to dominate during the holidays most years will also cause the XBONE to have a huge drop. Americans love buying consoles during Christmas even more than Europe and Japan. Last year in America the 360 dropped from 470k to 197k during this time. That's down 58% week on week. In Europe it went from 194k to 150k, or only a drop of 23%. Comparing this to the Wii U's sales during this time last year, it dropped from 113k to 60k in America and from 70k to 48k in Europe. 47% and 31% respectively. Slightly different percents, but still showing the same trend of having a much larger drop in America.
Luckily for us, this year is only one day off when comparing the weeks. Week ending Dec. 29th, 2012 matches almost perfectly with the week ending Dec. 28th, 2013. Last week XBONE did 236k in America and 79k in Europe. Using the same drop off ratio's as Wii U instead of 360 (since it still has some launch hype) gives us a prediction of 125k USA and 55k Europe. XBONE did 357k WW the week before so factoring in the other markets with the same ratio we get 204k WW for the week ending Dec. 28th. I'll make the prediction 210k WW to factor in the weeks being off by a day. The drops continue into the next few weeks of Jan. The hype is all but gone by then.
With PS4 it has supply issues which make such an analysis impossible to perform. We can say the demand should drop off by a very large percent, but at the moment we really don't know what the demand is. In addition although only slightly, being a hard to find item can increase demand. US be US though so I just feel like US supply problems will be over in Jan. Hype in US should end around then. Globally though it could be a very long time.
| JoeTheBro said: It's a problem with the XBONE, and potentially a problem with the PS4. Check this image:
Except for the first week, the Wii U was selling better world wide than the XBONE. The last week of Dec. however was when sales plumeted. It was a mix of the hype dying and the end of the holidays. This drop off happens to every non supply constrained console. It'll happen to XBONE and it'll probably happen to PS4.
With XBONE it's in a very similar situation to the Wii U. Lots of stock and low demand but still selling pretty good. The problem is the XBONE is doing best in America. What caused the 360 to dominate during the holidays most years will also cause the XBONE to have a huge drop. Americans love buying consoles during Christmas even more than Europe and Japan. Last year in America the 360 dropped from 470k to 197k during this time. That's down 58% week on week. In Europe it went from 194k to 150k, or only a drop of 23%. Comparing this to the Wii U's sales during this time last year, it dropped from 113k to 60k in America and from 70k to 48k in Europe. 47% and 31% respectively. Slightly different percents, but still showing the same trend of having a much larger drop in America. Luckily for us, this year is only one day off when comparing the weeks. Week ending Dec. 29th, 2012 matches almost perfectly with the week ending Dec. 28th, 2013. Last week XBONE did 236k in America and 79k in Europe. Using the same drop off ratio's as Wii U instead of 360 (since it still has some launch hype) gives us a prediction of 125k USA and 55k Europe. XBONE did 357k WW the week before so factoring in the other markets with the same ratio we get 204k WW for the week ending Dec. 28th. I'll make the prediction 210k WW to factor in the weeks being off by a day. The drops continue into the next few weeks of Jan. The hype is all but gone by then.
With PS4 it has supply issues which make such an analysis impossible to perform. We can say the demand should drop off by a very large percent, but at the moment we really don't know what the demand is. In addition although only slightly, being a hard to find item can increase demand. US be US though so I just feel like US supply problems will be over in Jan. Hype in US should end around then. Globally though it could be a very long time. |
Good job!Nice chart but I dont think ps4 supply is as bad of as some think theres some in my local walmart now. 
AAA300 said:
Good job!Nice chart but I dont think ps4 supply is as bad of as some think theres some in my local walmart now. |
Thanks.
Do you live in the US and is it Jan? 
Max King of the Wild said:
|
If they do a nintendo direct with a mature and realistic zelda u hype would go through the roof! Just flash back to twilight princess and that trailer at e3 with conan the barbarian music people went crazy and that game helped launch wii to big numbers.
I think the hype will stop at around the second week in january. Like AAA300 says, the hardcore crowd is way smaller than in the PS360 days. And the small library of mediocre games and no backwards compatibility make neither console a legit buy for anyone who is not a hardcore gamer.
XB1 and PS4 will not be a flop like Wii u without the hype. Besides the line up for 2014 is enough good: Thief, Halo 5, Titanfall, Infamous: Second Son, The Elder Scrolls, Daylight, Destiny, MGSV, Watch Dogs, Dying Light, Driveclub, The Witcher 3, The Order: 1886, FFXV...
| JoeTheBro said: It's a problem with the XBONE, and potentially a problem with the PS4. Check this image:
Except for the first week, the Wii U was selling better world wide than the XBONE. The last week of Dec. however was when sales plumeted. It was a mix of the hype dying and the end of the holidays. This drop off happens to every non supply constrained console. It'll happen to XBONE and it'll probably happen to PS4.
With XBONE it's in a very similar situation to the Wii U. Lots of stock and low demand but still selling pretty good. The problem is the XBONE is doing best in America. What caused the 360 to dominate during the holidays most years will also cause the XBONE to have a huge drop. Americans love buying consoles during Christmas even more than Europe and Japan. Last year in America the 360 dropped from 470k to 197k during this time. That's down 58% week on week. In Europe it went from 194k to 150k, or only a drop of 23%. Comparing this to the Wii U's sales during this time last year, it dropped from 113k to 60k in America and from 70k to 48k in Europe. 47% and 31% respectively. Slightly different percents, but still showing the same trend of having a much larger drop in America. Luckily for us, this year is only one day off when comparing the weeks. Week ending Dec. 29th, 2012 matches almost perfectly with the week ending Dec. 28th, 2013. Last week XBONE did 236k in America and 79k in Europe. Using the same drop off ratio's as Wii U instead of 360 (since it still has some launch hype) gives us a prediction of 125k USA and 55k Europe. XBONE did 357k WW the week before so factoring in the other markets with the same ratio we get 204k WW for the week ending Dec. 28th. I'll make the prediction 210k WW to factor in the weeks being off by a day. The drops continue into the next few weeks of Jan. The hype is all but gone by then.
With PS4 it has supply issues which make such an analysis impossible to perform. We can say the demand should drop off by a very large percent, but at the moment we really don't know what the demand is. In addition although only slightly, being a hard to find item can increase demand. US be US though so I just feel like US supply problems will be over in Jan. Hype in US should end around then. Globally though it could be a very long time. |
pretty good analysis.
xbone has pretty major (over) supply issues by me. it's amazing how stocked the shelves are. i really think MS is going to have pretty bad shipment numbers in this upcoming quarter.
ps4 is still hard to find but i did see a couple just after christmas. honestly, 1-2 more shipments and i think supply will pass demand pretty quickly.
| Touma said: XB1 and PS4 will not be a flop like Wii u without the hype. Besides the line up for 2014 is enough good: Thief, Halo 5, Titanfall, Infamous: Second Son, The Elder Scrolls, Daylight, Destiny, MGSV, Watch Dogs, Dying Light, Driveclub, The Witcher 3, The Order: 1886, FFXV... |
I seriously doubt Halo 5 is coming out in 2014. That would be the shortest time between numbered entries in series history. And do you really think FF15 is coming out anytime soon?
Meanwhile, games like MGS5, The Witcher 3, and Watch Dogs are also appearing on other platforms. Hell, Watch Dogs is also on the Wii U!
As for what's left, you have untested IP's, an MMO, and a couple of sequels to games that weren't that popular in the first place. Infamous 2 only sold 1.6 million on a userbase of 80 million.
Besides, I could just have easily made a similar list for the Wii U back this time a year ago. "Oh, the Wii U is going to have a great 2013! You have Pikmin 3, Rayman Legends, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate, Lego City, Aliens: Colonial Marines, The Wonderful 101, and Bayonetta 2! Of course it will sell great!" And we all know how that turned out.
Face it, if the PS4 and One do well in 2014, it probably won't be because of games not possible on their predecessors. It will be because of brand recognition and people not knowing how to build PC's.
| chapset said: week of january first the ps4/X1 will start selling 20k weekly, is that the answer you were looking for OP? |
That's not gonna happen...
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