When are expecting each of the current consoles and portables (Wii, DS, PS3, PSP, 360) to have their best year for sales?  Is the console having it's best year in 2007?

First, let me break down how I see the sales of each console ending up. The low end numbers work under the assumption of the market only growing with population, not expanding into new demographics.

Wii - 75-100 million

PS3 - 65-85 million

360 - 50-65 million

DS - 100-120 million

PSP - 45-60 million

The actual lifetime sales I see like this:

DS - 110 million (34 million Americas, 40 million Japan, 36 million Europe & Others)

Wii - 80 million (28 million Americas, 27 million Japan, 25 million Europe & Others)

PS3 - 70 million (24 million Americas, 8 million Japan, 38 million Europe & Others)

360 - 60 million (38 million Americas, 1.5 million Japan, 20.5 million Europe & Others)

PSP - 55 million (22 million Americas, 15 million Japan, 18 million Europe & Others)

Now for best year I think we will see this:

2007 - DS (25 million)

2008 - PSP (13 million), Wii (20 million), 360 (8 million)  PSP will pick up alot of momentum in the USA as Nintendo focuses on Wii.  The DS will likely be at over 60% of what it can sell by the end of 2007, so sales will slow once it passes 20 million sold in Japan in 2007, opening the door for the bit of a PSP revival here as well.  Wii should be in full force as Nintendo expands the market worldwide to non-gamers, and 3rd parties will be on board with strong offerings by mid year because of strong 2007 sales.  Wii will likely be the top selling console in all three regions in 2008.  360 will sell strongly in the USA with a price cut, a big library of software, and PS3 still establishing itself.  With 360 and Wii both hitting the 20 million milestone in 2008, neither system will be abandoned by 3rd parties as Sony's previous holiday only momentum (in 06'-08') finally spills over in 2009 when the console is cheap enough for most people to buy.

2009 - PS3 (15 million).  Blueray adoption, price cuts, and stronger late 2007 sales will garner more 3rd party support as 360 support begins to decline a little bit as Microsoft begins giving out development tools for Xbox 720.  Wii will begin reaching limits on what it can sell in Japan as well, right as PS3 price becomes mass market and 3rd parties give more support.

I dont see the Wii staying that strong. I think it will be the other way around PS3 80m and Wii 70m.

I really don't believe that a console can have dramatically stronger sales later in its life unless it starts out against remarkably weak competition ...

If you look at the PS3 currently it has both started off selling really poorly and also has a very low attach rate (in particular in Japan), suppose for a minute that this trend continues through 2007 and 2008 (while the PS3 is still very expensive compared to the competition). Third party developers are only going to tolerate sales that are below expectations for so long, and these developers are likely going to reduce support as games sell poorly.

In 2009 when a consumer walks into a store, sees a $129 Wii and a $299 PS3, takes a look at the game rack and realizes that the Wii has 5 times as many games available which console are they going to buy? This is the exact same problem the N64 faced against the Playstation; the original Playstation produced games that were far uglier but because the Playstation had far more development (and lower game prices) most people bought it instead of the N64.

I like your numbers but it seems you underestimate the PS3 sales in Japan while overestimating them in Europe and other territories. You really think the PS3 is gonna sell that few consoles in Japan?

yea i can't agree with these. 38 million for 360 in America!?! 38 million for PS3 in Europe!?!?!

Source, you always have a good read. I generally agree with you, however, I would change a few of the numbers around. For one, I don't think the ps3 is going to be > 40m WW in it's life time, i.e. 2012. Also, the DS will probably be closer to 150m. I think 1 in 3 people in Japan will eventually own one, seriously.

Japan never splits anywhere near as evenly as other markets do. I think Wii has just about wrapped up Japan. PS1 outsold Saturn/N64 4:1 in Japan

 PS1 outsold N64 less than 2:1 in America (15 million units more or so) SNES outsold Genesis over 4:1 in Japan.. SNES outsold Genesis by only 5/6 million in the USA

PS2 outsold GC by over 5:1 in Japan PS2 will probably end up outselling Xbox 3:1, and GC 4:1 in the USA While Xbox sold roughly 1.5:1 to GC in the USA

Basically, Japan has never been like the USA market, which can support 2 moderately successful consoles and a dominant one (PS2-Xbox-GC, PS1-N64-DC & Sat combined for the timing) , or three 20-35 million selling consoles. Japan came closest to parity in the 1995-1997 when N64 numbers, PS1 numbers, and Saturn numbers were all decent to strong. But Saturn stunk everywhere else so it died off. Even though it was supported longer N64 never caught the Saturn in Japan. Usually it is between a 60-30-10 split and a 75-15-10 in Japan, with the positioning locked up early on. I have Wii with like 74%, PS3 at 22%, and 360 at 4%, suggesting Nintendo will have the dominant console, but that PS3 will be stronger than usual for a second place system in Japan.

Happy one of the reasons I think PS3 will sell well later is because of the relative late launch in Europe. The console will only have wasted two holidays (07'-08') in Europe at the expensive price, instead of the 3 (06' to 08') wasted in the USA and Japan. So it should be able to attain it's best sales Europe. Another factor is that the Sony brand in Europe is comparably strong to Nintendo's brand in America after SNES I think, especially since Nintendo was never as firmly established in Europe as in the USA and Japan. From SNES to N64 Nintendo hardly lost any American users (3 million), and I expect the PS2-PS3 transition in Europe to be the same way, even as Japan goes to Nintendo, and the USA stays as a 40% plurality/win for the 360.

If Blu-ray wins it still won't help the PS3 in terms of sales, mostly because at that point a Blu-Ray stand alone player will cost around 149 vs a 299 game system. It will be an added feature and may help sway some people from teh 360 but it will be too late at that point to be a major selling point as it will no longer be the cheap Blu-ray player and the Wii and 360 will have significantly larger libraries in 2009 than the PS3. The saving grace for the PS3 are the initial projects that are being worked on and have been worked on since the PS3 was supposed to be undefeatable before last E3. Those games have to take hold before all of the Wii games come out from third party developers(which should take a significantly faster amount of time as they play catch up)with the 360 cutting into the PS3s exclusive list, Sony needs to focus on Europe Japan is pretty much lost to them now as the PS3 is selling slower than the GameCube and N64 for there meaning it is tracking for 6-8 million LTD. Nintendo si purpotedly releasing SMG, Smash Brothers and MP3 in Japan this year that with the Wii Health game means that Japan will be changing their name to Nintendo by March 31st. The 360 is proving to be serious competition in the US and I suspect the 360 will break away even more sowhen Halo 3 comes out and will most likely force MGS to go multiplatform. I see the PS3 in the N64/XBOX situation. 25 million WW LTD.

I'm like Rol. Love the thought that goes into your threads, don't understand where the numbers are coming from. Moving past the lifetime sales numbers, and looking at the thread topic--peak year sales... I agree that 360's biggest year will probably be only about 8 million. PS3 will also only be around 8 million. It'll sell 1 million more units than 360 in Japan, but 1 million less in NA. Its Japanese total will end under 5 million. Oh, I'm crazy, right? But what has PS3 done in Japan so far except bomb worse than anyone could have imagined? I disagree on PSP--I think it has basically already peaked. Its not going to top 10 million/year in the future. Nintendo "focusing on Wii" is not going to benefit PSP. DS's peak sales are going to start with the number "3." 30 million +. Nintendo are trying to expand the gaming audience in NA and PAL like they have in Japan. But even if they only expand it a little bit, and do it before they hit a ceiling in Japan (2007 would be ideal), they can do 9 mil Jap/11 mil NA/10 mil PAL. Oh, I'm crazy, right? But what has DS done so far except exceed everyone's wildest expectations? Wii, its hard to tell... But again, I think 30 million is in play. If Nintendo succeeds in expanding the gaming audience, those are the numbers which are possible. Other systems have done over 20 million, and Nintendo feels this is an unacceptably small niche. And no, it won't come in 2007. Just like DS will peak in either 2007 or 2008, Wii won't peak until 2009 or 2010, probably. And it will do it with more sales in the West, and less sales in Japan, than DS will.

The idea that just because the PS3 sales are sucking right now means that they will always suck, and they will crawl in a hole and die. That logic, in light of other system's sales just isn't true. Take the PS1/N64 sales in the US: At the end of Year 1 (their second Christmas): PS1; 3,020,500 Units Sold N64; 7,138,750 Units sold Year 2: PS1; 9,060,500 Units Sold N64; 11,878,000 Units Sold Year 3: PS1; 17,717,750 Units Sold N64; 15,870,500 Units Sold Do you see where the big momentum shift was? The PS1 was mauled LTD in the first year, and somewhat the second, but after that, the rest was history. The PS3 has "some" of those saving qualities the PS1 had: It was future-proofed against the N64, and while the N64 sales stagnated in year 2 and 3, the PS1 only increased. The PS3 is sucking about as much as it can right now, it's so low, the only way it can go is up :) Do I think it'll pull a PS3 and sell 100m units w/w? Heck no. But I do believe that it'll survive and do well. Now, as for the best years: Wii: 2008 - I believe that after 2008, sales will slowly decline during major shopping holidays, and although will remain decent in 2009, won't reach the same global ability in sales. Xbox 360: 2007 - GTA IV + Halo 3 + Pricedrop - Any PS3 competition = Ownage supreme. Should do well enough with H3/GTAIV to give it significant sales in US and Europe, with Lost Odyssey selling well in Japan. The next possible great selling season will be 2009 or 2010 when H4 ships, and we see similar uber-sales....But for now, I'm sticking with the no-brainer. NDS: 2007. Until the DSA launches, 2007 should be the uber-year for the DS. Although 08 and subsequent years will be great, I feel J-addiction to the DS will reach its fevor pitch this year, and slightly cool off next year. Expect 10m units sold in 8 weeks. Believe! PSP: Never. :) I have no real idea or say in how well the PSP would do. I assume 2006 will be its best year before a PSP revision. Playstation 3: 2010. It'll be a long time before the PS3 gains enough momentum vs. the other systems. By 2010, the Wii sales will be rather weak in Japan (as by then, everyone owns a Wii), and the 360 will start being outdated in some major games. Enough to garner around 14m units sold w/w that year. I see, The Source, that you've updated and increased your overall sales. I might disagree with the high Wii sales, but I do like the numbers. PS3: 70-78m units from 2006 to 2012 Xbox 360: 52.5m~57.5m units from 2005 to 2012 Wii: 47.5~55.0m units from 2006 to 2011 (major revision in 2010, add 25m units onto this number to equal number of systems vs. PS3/360 in 2012) DS: 105m before major revision in 2011 (250m+ for 2 generations of DS systems) PSP: 45m before PSP2 in 2010 or even 2009. (PSP2 sells 55m units)