@ Davygee...

 I don't agree about the Wii... Considering this is it first 'real' year... It isn't gonna peak... Do you really think that a system which has limited production and is sold out throughout the first half year can peak?!... C'mon, u do realise that you're just kiddin yourself, are you?! ARE YOU?!...

2008 probably, or maybe even 09... (I think a combination of both years will be very strong for Wii..., don't know which one will sell most but it will come in both at almost the same level)...

Considering the strong line-up and considering a sell-out till August, to get rid of limited supply because of high demand till late October... When it will sell so much that it is supply limited again... It JUST CAN NOT HAVE ITS BEST YEAR!...

And when The wii is at around 15-19 mil at end 07... It will have HUGE or need i say MASSIVE 3th party support so Christmas 08 will be even better...! And with some really big inside developed titles like Animal crossing for casual and wide appeal and something like Mario kart or Kid Icarus it won't suprise me if it will sell a grand total of 20 mil for only 2008...!... And that, my boys will be the biggest year for the Wii... With 09 close behind at 16 mil or something...

And by 2011 or something... Wii will have sold 70 mil+ Worldwide, making it a succesful next entry to NGC... And the BEST Console from Nintendo EVER!...

That, my dear friends, is a considerably plausible opinion!... (And when the mass-market appeal gets through really good it might even sell a grand total of 100+... But its to far away to make some normal prediction on that, i'll only get biased or called a flammer, troll etc... )

Srry... Double-post!

I have 360 sales like this..

6-8 million in sales during it's good years.

2006-2012 for the above years (not in that order)..

Then the other 10 million comes from 2005,2013-2014.  I think in 2013-2014 360 could have big US sales as a value proposition.  If Microsoft really does want to make money in gaming, then I can see them supporting 360 much longer than Xbox to offset the cost of the next Xbox.  To me it depends on how quickly 360 reaches 20 million sold in the USA, if it does so before Christmas 09', it is going to get at least software support for at least another 30 months because of the userbase.  If not, I can see it stopping at around 45-50 million sold worldwide.  But I really think it can get to 30 million in the USA if it hits 20 million by X-mas 09', because that would leave at least 2 and upto 4 more decent/big holiday seasons in the USA.

Side by side I have it like:

If all three consoles just stopped selling in 2012, the market would be at 190 million.  I think another 20 million consoles will be sold after that, with most going to 360 and PS3 which are - by then - mass market.  It is certaintly possible that if one console is dominant, the other two will stop manufacturing, so only 10 million or so will be sold from 2012-2014.  Basically, I have Wii peaking in marketshare in 2008-2010, 360's peak in 2005-2007, and PS3's peak marketshare 2011-2014.  The numbers imply PS3 moving into 2nd place in mid 2009 when PS3 outselling 360 in Europe & Japan offsets the 360 sales in the USA.  Wii passes 360 in early November of this year.  The above is what I see as the most likely scenario, but I have one alternative as well, in which Wii brings in 20 million+ new gamers.  This assumes 205 million sold by 2012, and then cheapskates, the people buying PS2 now upgrade...

TheSource for the most part (up until the end of 2008) I think we agree:

At that point in time I see a much different path moving forward ...

In 2009 and 2010 the Wii will have (by far) the strongest third party development that a Nintendo home console has seen since the SNES; the combination of lower development costs and a much larger userbase will mean (at least) twice as many third party titles will be released for the Wii as for the PS3 and XBox 360. The Wii's design will mean that these games are all (pretty much) exclusive.

Something which no one mentions will become a major factor at this point, the Nintendo DS ... Being that the DS will have sold (more than) 75 Million units and a high number of Wii owners will have Nintendo DS' Nintendo and many third party developers will become interested in creating Wii/DS games or including DS features in Wii software. This was mainly unsuccessful with the Gamecube/GBA because the Gamecube was not very popular and you needed additional hardware to connect the two systems (two things that will not be the case with the Wii). Because of how expensive both systems are at this point ($79 DS, $129 Wii) and both systems popularity these games will be somewhat popular and drive furthur sales of both systems.

The XBox 360 will continue to chug along in North America and Europe but has limited sales apeal from the lack of certain Japaneese developers. The PS3 will struggle in all regions because it will lose key exclusvies in Japan to the Wii, and will have (mostly) the same games as the 360 in North America and Europe at a higher price. The 360 will release it's follow up system in 2011 (after 6 years) and the sales will soon drop off, the Wii will release a new system in 2011 (after 5years) and sales will continue as developers continue to support the Wii, and the PS3 will release a new system in 2012 (after 6 years) but in its final year it will sell poorly because of lack of games.