TheSource for the most part (up until the end of 2008) I think we agree:
| Year | Xbox360 | Wii | PS3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | 8.50 | 3.19 | 1.25 |
| 2007 | 16.00 | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| 2008 | 22.00 | 36.00 | 16.00 |
At that point in time I see a much different path moving forward ...
In 2009 and 2010 the Wii will have (by far) the strongest third party development that a Nintendo home console has seen since the SNES; the combination of lower development costs and a much larger userbase will mean (at least) twice as many third party titles will be released for the Wii as for the PS3 and XBox 360. The Wii's design will mean that these games are all (pretty much) exclusive.
Something which no one mentions will become a major factor at this point, the Nintendo DS ... Being that the DS will have sold (more than) 75 Million units and a high number of Wii owners will have Nintendo DS' Nintendo and many third party developers will become interested in creating Wii/DS games or including DS features in Wii software. This was mainly unsuccessful with the Gamecube/GBA because the Gamecube was not very popular and you needed additional hardware to connect the two systems (two things that will not be the case with the Wii). Because of how expensive both systems are at this point ($79 DS, $129 Wii) and both systems popularity these games will be somewhat popular and drive furthur sales of both systems.
The XBox 360 will continue to chug along in North America and Europe but has limited sales apeal from the lack of certain Japaneese developers. The PS3 will struggle in all regions because it will lose key exclusvies in Japan to the Wii, and will have (mostly) the same games as the 360 in North America and Europe at a higher price. The 360 will release it's follow up system in 2011 (after 6 years) and the sales will soon drop off, the Wii will release a new system in 2011 (after 5years) and sales will continue as developers continue to support the Wii, and the PS3 will release a new system in 2012 (after 6 years) but in its final year it will sell poorly because of lack of games.
