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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 will outsell Xbox one 1.5:1 in December NPD

 

Will i be right?

Yes 135 45.30%
 
No 87 29.19%
 
BasilZero is a woman 41 13.76%
 
See results 34 11.41%
 
Total:297

Traditionally, you'd expect December to be flat or up by as much as three fold on November, so it will definitely be something if PS4 / X1 decline from November.

There is a part of me that still thinks there is something of a COD / Comic Book movie type launch to the Xbox 1 and PS4 launches - everyone who wants the product rushes out. The question is really just the decay - I don't think the lineups / prices / competition support another 2m month for X1 and PS4 - you can buy a PS3 / X360 with a selection of over 1,000  games at a cheaper price than PS4 / X1. We're probably looking at 1.5m to 2.0m in total for Nov-Dec for both PS4 / X1 - with November simply getting the bulk of the share instead of December as it usually is.

Long term, we'll probably see PS4 ramp up to 10-15m in 2014, with X1 doing more like 7-11m for the year. 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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JoeTheBro said:
Not looking good Mr. King.

PS4 is still 60k behind so far according to the chartz. It does look like the PS4 has a chance of beating it for NPD, but best case scenario I can imagine is 850k to 650k. or 1.3:1. You best be hoping VGCHARTZ had a bad tracking month lol. Still I'm really impressed how in the final hours the chances of your prediction being right completely turned around.

Idk, Dec always seems to be a tough month for VGC to track.  Holidays just screw with their methods, I guess.  Dec is definitely a month I try to wait for NPD.  We'll just have to see.  Though, I do think 1.3 is a little more realistic.



I think 5:1 is pushing it. If Sony does really well with it's upcoming India release, possibly, but I think it's far more likely to settle somewhere between a 3:1 and 4:1 ratio.



You need to calm down.

The ratio cant be higher than 2:1

Xbone will surely sell at least 70M, and PS4 can reach 140M



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Aerys said:
You need to calm down.

The ratio cant be higher than 2:1

Xbone will surely sell at least 70M, and PS4 can reach 140M

I disagree, the ration could easily go higher.

With only the North American market proping up the Xbone, I don't see it topping 50m lifetime sales. Seriously. Look at the Xbox 360, in North America it sold 42.4m units so far, since launch. Considering that Europe has practically abandoned the Xbone at this point, and you can't give Microsoft consoles away in Japan, I don't see how the Xbone will outperform it's predecessor; especially with PS4 outselling it uniformly (remember PS3 only sold 25.8m in North America). If these figures are representative of the North American market buying power, and they flip this generation (which is entirely likely). The Xbone may genuinely struggle to top more than 30m sales in North America, and I don't see it selling more than a couple of million across other nations.

Regardless, we can already see that PS4 is doing well, and assuming a continue in trend it's entirely reasonable to predict the PS4 will top 150m sales worldwide over it's lifetime. I won't be shocked if it breaks the record for best selling console of all time. Europe is likely to become a monopoly for the PS4 (excepting handheld sales obviously), Japan and North America will both support it greatly. It's sold well across 10 other countries already including Malasia, Taiwan, Saudi-Arabia, Australia, South Africa and more... AND it's opening up entirely new markets with India, Philippines, and Thailand all being tackled with nation-wide releases for the first time from a games console developer. If Sony can secure more exclusives in 2015-2016 following a poor Xbox One performance, it's entirely within the realms of possibility that this console could break the 200 million units milestone.

While this is good news for Sony, it's actually bad news in some respects. Having Sony in such a powerful position, and with the Wii U and Xbox One both likely to struggle to surpass 50m sales, it will shift the balance of power far too much. No one company should have too much influence, or shady practices, and anti-consumer efforts start to rise up. Competition is a good thing, we want to keep Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo fighting each other as it ensures a strong industry with good innovation. The day one console wins outright, is the day we see true stagnation in gaming.



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Won't happen, sony isn't supplying enough



think-man said:
My prediction is that Consoles will sell in December npd, I could be wrong though.

Hmm, bold prediction.



You are a failure.

In addition your prediction was wrong.



Sad that more than half of your poll peeps thought you'd be right.

I would of said no, granted it would have been based on the thought that they simply couldn't produce enough... PS4 could easily sell that amount if stock was unlimited.



superchunk said:
Sad that more than half of your poll peeps thought you'd be right.


at least i said i would most probably be wrong. either way, i got soome crow to eat!