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Forums - Sales Discussion - ALL Next Gen systems are going to fail!

farlaff on 14 December 2013
thekin said:

I kind of agree with what the op said, I really don't see the systems selling up last gen this time around, my reason is this
1. The market is getting smaller - people don't like to talk about it but look that what is happening, remove the wii from the calculation seeing that we are only talking about "hardcore gamer" ps2, Xbox and GameCube sold a combined amount of roughly 200mil, ps3 and 360 only sold so far 160mil and remember this systems have been on the market far pas the ps2 and Xbox 

I have said this before: Wii brought consoles to the houses in a way it would have never been possible without it, since most people were happy with their PS2s. Then it (the Wii) started to get a drought and/or people got tired of its technical limitations and bought other consoles. At least it got people's attention to home consoles again, that being good for the whole of the market.

Plus, I think there is still a lot of room for PS360 to keep selling (the 8 year old fact is not putting buyers away: look at the charts), unless they cut the strings, wihch I sincerely doubt someone will with those install bases. For the regular Joe, they are still quite advanced. If another Wii phenomena doesn't come out or something really special happes, the console business is not gonna repeat what it did past gen.



My 1000th post: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9368779

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small44 on 14 December 2013
drake4 said:
Landguy said:
Netyaroze said:
Landguy said:
Lawlight said:
PS4 will sell more than 100M.


What makes you think that?


I guess the fact that Xbox one and PS4 track way over their predecessors at the same point in time makes your prediction kind of logically flawed. You basically just said: "Xbox and PS4 will sell less than their predecessors because I say so"

There is no reason to believe your prediction will come true.

Logic??

Let's apply what you just said to reasoning.

Both systems just launched after 7-8 years between generations.  Demand has been built up over that time and in today's society, people who are big fans of anything Line up and pay whatever to get it right away.  That was true to some degree at last gen launchs, but it wasn't as common back then as it is today(look at any iphone launch).  Also, look at ebay.  A large number of people have learned that there is a lot of money to be made in the purchasing and reselling of the systems.  This too creates a crapload of demand from middle men.  The biggest factor is the proliferation of the HDTV.  Even though the last gen was supposed to be the HD revolution, it didn't really happen that way because there were so many people without HDTVs.  Now, the market is sturated with inexpensive HDTVs.  This allows people to go next gen with the lateest tech fora lot less.

THe Because is say so portion is the part where we have to factor in the Smartphone/Tablet/internet segments.  Those areas basically did not exist until the last 3rd of the last gen.  The tablet/smartphone market is exploding in both quantity of paroducts/sales and quality/power.  You can go buy a tablet today that is more powerful than the PS4 or XB1.  It isn't price comparable, but it will be in a few years.

considering a laptop with the power of ps4 will run you about a 1000$ today, it would probably take 5 years for a tablet to have ps4 specs and be around the same price.

Even if tablet have ps4 spec it will not have better looking games then ps4 games.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Mummelmann on 14 December 2013
michael_stutzer said:
ListerOfSmeg said:
I gotta come back to this one later. its laughable what people are saying.
PS4 will sell more than PS3 in less time cause tablets and cellphones have taken a huge chunk of the market??? What? That doesn't even make sense at all. Less sales would yes but not higher sales.
People actually think first week sales are going to stay that way beyond the first month? wow.....


I doubt PS4 will ever push the same numbers as PS3 simply because of the pay to play scheme Sony has going. Yes the die hards wont have issues but those people couldn't give the Vita decent numbers so how can they impact PS4 that much when they couldn't Vita and these people buy anything Sony. Just not going to happen

My guess is Nintendo in first with 100m. they have the games and the price
X1 in close 2nd because its more than just a graphical upgrade console and people are use to how MS does business plus they have the games atm too
Sony last with 40-60m sold. Charging scheme and lack of innovation/lack of games will hurt sales. Sony's primary group is 13-24 and that group depends on their parents for most of their purchases.

I think you are underestimating the power of Mario to be honest. Nintendo proved before that they can sell more than Xbox 360 and PS3, combined. If MS can sell 90-100 million consoles and Sony 50 million, what would stop Nintendo from selling 150-200 million consoles? Also, imagine a pokemon game, for Wii U. Pokemon U. Casuals and hardcore crowd would go crazy. Everything considered, I think Sony will sell about 30 million because their console is the best game machine. MS can sell 120 million or so because of good marketing and snap feature you know the things that actually shift consoles, also you can burn extra electricity while watching the same TV you know and love. Wii U from anywhere from 150 to 250 million. A price cut to 5$ with bundles will ensure that.


And I think you're underestimating the impact of lack of appeal. I started talking about the Gamepad and Wii U concept in early 2011 and expressed concern for the aim, or lack thereof, with this machine and that this could cause trouble for Nintendo. I had no idea it would be this bad though, if you told me six months ago that the Wii U would probably end up somewhere between 5 and 5.5 million at year's end, I would have stared blankly and then turned off the computer and gone to bed.

The thing is; if the core product lacks basic appeal, no amount of advertising, games, price cuts or bundles will help it sell great. At this point, it probably won't climb all the way up decent either. It's simply becoming more and more clear that this (lack of basic appeal) is the Wii U's main problem.



DJEVOLVE on 14 December 2013
Netyaroze said:
Landguy said:
Lawlight said:
PS4 will sell more than 100M.


What makes you think that?


I guess the fact that Xbox one and PS4 track way over their predecessors at the same point in time makes your prediction kind of logically flawed. You basically just said: "Xbox and PS4 will sell less than their predecessors because I say so"

There is no reason to believe your prediction will come true.


What he said^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^



fatslob-:O on 14 December 2013
Landguy said:
fatslob-:O said:
This thread is essentially premature.

I don't think this thread is premature.  Like many threads here on vgchartz, it has a certain level of crystal ball to it. 

 

But, by you saying it is premature, are you agreeing with it's content but just think it's too early to be sure?

No I'm just saying this thread is too early to be calling every next gen system is gonna fail. It does not mean that I necessarily agree with it's content. This thread is just too early, period. 



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Arius Dion on 14 December 2013

I think we should wait until the holiday hype is over, then we can get an idea of where each console stands.

I will say this holiday season seems pretty week across the board. Wii U is selling like a turd, software sales are atrocious. Vita is being outsold by the Wii. 3DS is doing decently, but we are a long way away from the Wii era. Even Pachter isn't impressed by the software sales of the now current gen consoles. Its easy to get wrapped up in it all now, but I'm not as optimistic.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

hiimnew on 14 December 2013
fatslob-:O said:
Landguy said:
fatslob-:O said:
This thread is essentially premature.

I don't think this thread is premature.  Like many threads here on vgchartz, it has a certain level of crystal ball to it. 

 

But, by you saying it is premature, are you agreeing with it's content but just think it's too early to be sure?

No I'm just saying this thread is too early to be calling every next gen system is gonna fail. It does not mean that I necessarily agree with it's content. This thread is just too early, period. 

That's the point.

 

So the op can rub it into peoples' faces if correct.



drake4 on 14 December 2013
hiimnew said:
fatslob-:O said:
Landguy said:
fatslob-:O said:
This thread is essentially premature.

I don't think this thread is premature.  Like many threads here on vgchartz, it has a certain level of crystal ball to it. 

 

But, by you saying it is premature, are you agreeing with it's content but just think it's too early to be sure?

No I'm just saying this thread is too early to be calling every next gen system is gonna fail. It does not mean that I necessarily agree with it's content. This thread is just too early, period. 

That's the point.

 

So the op can rub it into peoples' faces if correct.

which he won't be.



Pillow on 14 December 2013

One thing which can be agreed by using logic: All 3 consoles won't be able to outsell their predecessor.

Don't get fooled by the initial console hype rush, it won't last as long as you think. So many blind fans here.

Look at:

-What do the new console offer over their predecessor? So far, more graphics.
-Lack of software is really scary, for all big 3. Without software you can't keep your momentum, we will mostly see that with the PS4 and XB1
-Cost: PS3 is half the cost of PS4. Xbox1 is 5 times the price of 360 (when on sale)
-Lack of BC, really it's just another lost opportunity here... BC would have allowed more next-gen console to sell, instead people buy a 360 and PS3 to be able to play GAMES.
-PS4 has no must-have feature. The PS2 had the DVD drive and PS3 had the Blue-Ray which helped a lot to sell.
The X1 has, well, Kinect 2? What's the difference between the 1.0 and 2.0? MS has failed to show the difference and probably going to have underwhelming software support like the original.
-Wii U is just too complicated for the market... and not enough Nintendo software yet. The reason it's not selling as good even if it has more software is because of the lack of hardcore fans, something that is less of a problem for Playstation.

Ready to take bets that no next-gen will outsell their predecessor.



drake4 on 14 December 2013
Pillow said:
One thing which can be agreed by using logic: All 3 consoles won't be able to outsell their predecessor.

Don't get fooled by the initial console hype rush, it won't last as long as you think. So many blind fans here.

Look at:

-What do the new console offer over their predecessor? So far, more graphics.
-Lack of software is really scary, for all big 3. Without software you can't keep your momentum, we will mostly see that with the PS4 and XB1
-Cost: PS3 is half the cost of PS4. Xbox1 is 5 times the price of 360 (when on sale)
-Lack of BC, really it's just another lost opportunity here... BC would have allowed more next-gen console to sell, instead people buy a 360 and PS3 to be able to play GAMES.
-PS4 has no must-have feature. The PS2 had the DVD drive and PS3 had the Blue-Ray which helped a lot to sell.
The X1 has, well, Kinect 2? What's the difference between the 1.0 and 2.0? MS has failed to show the difference and probably going to have underwhelming software support like the original.
-Wii U is just too complicated for the market... and not enough Nintendo software yet. The reason it's not selling as good even if it has more software is because of the lack of hardcore fans, something that is less of a problem for Playstation.

Ready to take bets that no next-gen will outsell their predecessor.

playstation 4  will easily, consider this, ps3 after6-7 years on the market is still selling for 299$. xbone, is to hight at the moment they will need to drop the price by next year.