"That's exactly why you keep creating new experiences to grab their attention instead pf chasing it. That's what expression ahead of the curve is talking about. This is also the one of the things the industry has had a lack of for the last few years in regards to those who maintain a lions' share of it's resources."

Yeah, good luck with that. The casual gaming market is completely oversaturated since the boom of mobile touchscreen games. You can play some fun games wherever you are, if you can spare a few minutes.

These new experiences will have to be quite unique and heavily advertised to grab the attention of most casual gamers, so they buy another device for games they can't get get on their already owned devices.

So 1 month into the next generation, you've already concluded tha Sony will never have any software on their system to appeal to anyone beyond "core gamers"?

I guess this is based on your knowledge that games such as Buzz and SingStar were obviously launch titles on the PS2...

I also think you're way off saying all the systems will fail. It's simply too early to predict what will happen with any of the systems right now. Even the Wii U can be turned around to sell a decent quantity of hardware.

That said I don't think there will be as many consoles sold this generation in total. But that'll be down to less double dipping on systems.

playstation is going to sell ~10% of youre lifetime sales in 5months... and the first year isnt even systems peak. It should do better in the next few years.

Wii U sold 10% or your total sales in 12months... and will peak at about 10m... How do you expect it to sell another 30m in 3years?

that prediction is utter garbage

Hence why I say the industry is not going to grow. You yourself spoke of hardcore gamers and brand loyalty, that is even more of a waste of an investment toward that audience because their minds are already made. So where can this growth come from?

I disagree. I think this will probably be about right. However we will see because their really is no way to conclusively say it will happen. However, if the ps3 and 3ds were anything to go by, initials sales data is just that and nothing more.

It will. It's selling faster than the PS3 and thats Sonys lowest selling console which is already over 80 million. All Sony has to do is pick up lost numbers in Japan and the US and it will most likely do 110-120M. This is the reason why Microsoft reacts to quickly to what Sony does, because you cannot give them  any sort of advantage. Nintendo forgot what it was like to fight for marketshare...because in truth they've never learned to fight for it. 

Disagree all you want. After year one the Wii sold about 20% of its sales. That would mean Wii U wouldnt reach 30mil. 45 is out of the question. Flat out no. 35 is optimistic but attainable.

Ps3 sold about 10% of its total sales after year one. I dont think it will sell 0 sales for the rest of the year. I may be wrong though... guess we'll just have to bump this thread a year from now.

Okay....thanks for your permission.... -_-

you just gave two examples that are 10 percent different in their first years and have gone on to sell quite similarly so I still stand by my point.

we all know why Ps3 only sold 10% in its first year which Nintendo hasnt faced being half the price. We also know why Wii only sold 20% in its first year... again something Wii U hasnt done which is be supply constrained all to hell. Seriously, Wii U will not sell 45mil

Okay like you said we will have to see in a years time. I still think that wii u can still grab at least 40% of the wii audience due to the 3ds performance and the fact that there is still a slight demand for that software.

Supply constraints considered, anyone who looked at the first year of the wii and ps3 would be hard pressed to claim they saw them so close at this point. Yes there are factors abound with software support and price drops, which will materialize as this generation unfolds so that much we will have to wait on.