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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Analyst predicts new Xbox, Nintendo consoles by 2010

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 February 2008
Mummelmann said:
I don't think a single user in here would make such a stupid prediction. Jesus... people get paid for this kind of thing? I want in!

 A Bachelor's or Master's degree in field's like economics, marketing, statistics, etc. can get your foot in the door



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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jankazimierz on 14 February 2008

Viper makes a good point, just because Sony releases the PS4 in 2012/13 doesnt mean they wont support the PS3 for several more years. (till about 2015, making it 9 years.)



Ail on 14 February 2008

So what's the big deal about everyone wanting a new console in 3 years.

Are there really any kind of games you see that won't run on the current Gen ?



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

bigjon on 14 February 2008

yawn... one of the worst predictions I have ever seen. It would be idiotic for Nintendo and MS to kill off their console at the most profitable point in their lifespan.

I am guessing he is basing this off the short Xbox life... 360 will not be killed, it is selling much better than Xbox1.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

bdbdbd on 14 February 2008
Ail said:

1*You know we're reaching a stage where computing power in consoles is starting to be pretty good and i can see the PS3 lasting longer than what is being predicted in this thread.
I started to notice that for PC like 3 years ago and it will be the same for consoles.

2*It used to be you had to update your PC every 2-3 years if you wanted to play the most recent games and now you can keep it for 4 years and you're still fine except for a few rare crazy games ( Crysis).

It's going to be the same for consoles. The majority of games don't need more powerfull consoles to be able to run well.( only thing you could argue for is the somewhat low RAM in this gen consoles).
So yeah I see the PS3 around until like 2013....
And that's part of Sony's brand image.
You pay more for their stuff, but it's good quality and will last you a while..........
Of course I can see Microsoft wanting to replace their 360 faster cause that DVD-Reader is gonna start being obsolete pretty soon and most ppls don't want to switch 4 discs during game play.....

3*Right now I could be wrong but I really don't see the case for a killer new console in 2011 or so that would make this generation's consoles obsolete by blowing their performances out...( in a way that can actually be noticeable in games). Only exception is the Wii but their price point allow them to get a new console out and not upset their customer base...

PS : Consoles are not Ipod. 4*Microsoft and Sony really don't make any cash out of selling them, the cash is from games, so as long as you can design kick ass games on the current consoles there is no incentive for them to replace them early.....( there was last gen for Microsoft because of the Nvidia issue and their market share). This gen however I don't see any of the big 3 in such a bad market position that they would want to say ' these cards sucks, lets shuffle the deck and start over again'


Actually your arguments can be used also against them. 1. This definately is proved by console sales. The weakest hardware by far is beating the competition combined by weekly basis. 2. This is because of longer development times. The longer the a game takes to develope, the more harder it is to predict what kind of hardware will be available when the game comes out, so the devs need to "play it safe". 3. Who says anything about blowing performance out? You miss the most important part. I said in another thead, that next generation consoles will all propably use single processor CPU, performance around twice what PS3 has. It doesn't matter how powerful for example PS3 is, when it's finally wise to use only 1/3 of it's power because of its complex processor. What the 3 want to do is blow this gen away with lower game development costs (except maybe for Nintendo), since it makes easier profit and less risks. If the game sells a million, why would you spend 20 million to develope it, when you can do it with 10? And besides, new hardware may be cheaper in long term, if it's designed in the right way. In 2011, beating PS360 performance with single RISC isn't going to be a big deal. 4. This was just to fill number 3. They could sell consoles at profit. They could make games cheaper. They could make more money with bigger marketshare. But they don't. Maybe next gen they will?

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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Final-Fan on 14 February 2008
HappySqurriel said:

2009/2010 is a pretty safe estimate for the release of the next Sony and Nintendo handhelds being that they will be 5/6 years old; this will give the Nintendo DS another full year of dominance in both hardware and software sales before the next dominant handheld unseats it.

Maybe -- it seems sensible -- but at the same time I don't see the same kinds of pressures on the handheld market to push out a new system.  Why do you say there will be new handhelds by 2010 other than simply being "due"? 

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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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NeoRatt on 14 February 2008

Not a huge surprise if it happens. 5 years is a good life span for a console. The key this time will be to make it fully backward compatible.



DragonLord on 14 February 2008

My goodness I hope not....2010 seems way too early.  I've already spent a ton on the current (next) generation consoles---I'm not ready to upgrade in 2 years again.



PSN ID: Sorrow880

Gamertag: Sorrow80

Wii #: 8132 1076 3416 7450

ClaudeLv250 on 14 February 2008

How do these people get hired? Neither Microsoft nor Nintendo are putting out their next console in 2010. Microsoft MIGHT do it late 2011 at the earliest, Iwata already said he wanted this gen to last longer than most gen cycles so he's going to keep up to his word by...killing the Wii at the end of Year Three?

Once again, how do these people get hired?



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

wiiforever on 14 February 2008

Wii will last MUCH longer cause Ninty is getting as much money out of the Wii as it can before it leaves it behind. MS...maybe but still a bit early