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Forums - Sales Discussion - Generation 8 Prediction Time Worldwide

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This thread is fascinating, if for no other reason than it predicts that Nintendo will release a successor at roughly the right time, but can't seem to figure out that the successor is generation 9.  

Also it's fascinating that most people seemed to think that generation 8 would turn out a lot like generation 7.  That is why most people overestimate the XB1 and underestimate the PS4.  In truth, each generation is a huge reset in the marketplace.  When people realize a) Switch is generation 9, and b) each generation is a huge reset, then they'll begin to see why the PS5 is actually in big trouble.

 

Somini said:
PS4 130*
Xbone 60
WiiU 30

Millions of units.

I like this guy.  He made a really good prediction.  Congrats to Somini!

Just one question.

What, in your opinion makes the NS a generation 9 console? 

Period of release? Game library of the platform? Or simply that it released after the PS4/XB1?



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Intrinsic said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

This thread is fascinating, if for no other reason than it predicts that Nintendo will release a successor at roughly the right time, but can't seem to figure out that the successor is generation 9.  

Also it's fascinating that most people seemed to think that generation 8 would turn out a lot like generation 7.  That is why most people overestimate the XB1 and underestimate the PS4.  In truth, each generation is a huge reset in the marketplace.  When people realize a) Switch is generation 9, and b) each generation is a huge reset, then they'll begin to see why the PS5 is actually in big trouble.

 

I like this guy.  He made a really good prediction.  Congrats to Somini!

Just one question.

What, in your opinion makes the NS a generation 9 console? 

Period of release? Game library of the platform? Or simply that it released after the PS4/XB1?

All of the above?  Consoles in the same generation are released fairly close to one another.  On the other hand when a console goes 4-7 years and then releases a successor, you have a next generation console.  Next generation consoles play games that the previous generation could not.  

Switch is a next generation console in every sense.  It was NOT released anywhere near the PS4, XB1 or Vita.  The Wii U and 3DS WERE released near the PS4, XB1 and Vita.  They are all in the same generation, but Switch is not.  Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS releasing 4.5 and 6 years later respectively.  This is the normal time frame for releasing a next gen console.  And also Switch plays new games that the Wii U or 3DS could not: Mario Odyssey, Ulitmate Smash, Pokemon Let's Go, etc... these games are only available on Switch.

Now also think about it this way.  What if Sony released a Vita 2 this year?  What generation would it be?  Clearly it would be competing with Switch since they are both handheld devices.  If a Vita 2 launched this year, then what generation would it be?



Wow, Kirby. Kudos to you for predicting almost to the month the release of the Switch. Much respect. And if Nintendo internally had gotten their folks on the same page, the Switch would have released in late 2016 like you predicted. I think they made a better decision to delay until March 2017 if for no other reason than it shortened the window between Zelda and Mario Odyssey, especially considering that we'd need to wait over a year later for their next super major release in SSBUltimate.



kirby007 said:

Noone dared yet?

well here it goes, Kirby007's scenario#1 :  WW LTD 8th generation!

 

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

Nintendo

2012

0

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

14.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

18.000.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

19.000.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

19.500.000

       

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

92.200.000

 

 

 

Note one:

I expect that Nintendo will follow up the wii u with a different console end 2016 ( wii 2 a.k.a. nintendo tab )

Note two:

Sony currently looks like to be #1 during the 8th gen

Note three:

Microsoft will once again build a solid userbase, but will lose the "war" with around 9 million unit difference

 

Now, show me your visions!!!

 

Now that was prophetic from you about Nintendo, only off by a couple months and a name. Even the sales curve is pretty close to real



The_Liquid_Laser said:

All of the above?  Consoles in the same generation are released fairly close to one another.  On the other hand when a console goes 4-7 years and then releases a successor, you have a next generation console.  Next generation consoles play games that the previous generation could not.  

Switch is a next generation console in every sense.  It was NOT released anywhere near the PS4, XB1 or Vita.  The Wii U and 3DS WERE released near the PS4, XB1 and Vita.  They are all in the same generation, but Switch is not.  Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS releasing 4.5 and 6 years later respectively.  This is the normal time frame for releasing a next gen console.  And also Switch plays new games that the Wii U or 3DS could not: Mario Odyssey, Ulitmate Smash, Pokemon Let's Go, etc... these games are only available on Switch.

Now also think about it this way.  What if Sony released a Vita 2 this year?  What generation would it be?  Clearly it would be competing with Switch since they are both handheld devices.  If a Vita 2 launched this year, then what generation would it be?

If its all of the above then I fear you are very wrong.

By definition of generations

Video game generations are defined by the dominant game console in their marketplace. Anytime there is a significant shift in the marketplace leader to a new hardware model' that signals the start of a new generation.

The WiiU was the start of a new generation because nintendo was the market leader of the previous one. The PS4 is the market leader in this current generation and the hardware nintendo has brought forward will in no way drive game design technology forward because its based on on 5 yr old tech.  

Secondly you have to look at the software, the NS shares its game library with 8th gen platforms. And chances are when those platforms release 9th gen hardware NS will probably not et a single game from them. Until the NS2 that is. But lets see.. the NS can play games like oblivion and doom and fortnite. All games that arent available on the WiiU. S what happens when it cant play the iterations of those games on other "9th gen" hardware when they come? Does that make them 10th gen hardware instead?

If a Vita 2 launched this year and was getting the same games that the Switch and PS4/XB1 are getting then its an 8th gen machine too. 

But if you want to really be anal abut all this? This is how its really supposed to look like.


- NS is nintendo's first generation hybrid console or their 7th generation home console or their 5th generation handheld console. Depending on how yu see the switch.

- PS4 is sony's 4th generation console and XB1 is microsofts 3rd gen console.

But if you are gonna group them' then the only sensible thing to do is group them by what they all share in common (which is and always is games) and not something as arbitrary as when its released. Cause that were the case we really shuld be in the 12th gen by if you look at what happened with the atari 2600. Its successor was released around 4yrs after it but didnt catch on so they just grouped it into the same generation. Kinda what happened with the WiiU and Switch.......

Sorry to break it t you, but nintendo released two consoles in the 8th gen. Their 9th gen console will show up sometime in 2023 or so.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 21 December 2018

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Intrinsic said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

All of the above?  Consoles in the same generation are released fairly close to one another.  On the other hand when a console goes 4-7 years and then releases a successor, you have a next generation console.  Next generation consoles play games that the previous generation could not.  

Switch is a next generation console in every sense.  It was NOT released anywhere near the PS4, XB1 or Vita.  The Wii U and 3DS WERE released near the PS4, XB1 and Vita.  They are all in the same generation, but Switch is not.  Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS releasing 4.5 and 6 years later respectively.  This is the normal time frame for releasing a next gen console.  And also Switch plays new games that the Wii U or 3DS could not: Mario Odyssey, Ulitmate Smash, Pokemon Let's Go, etc... these games are only available on Switch.

Now also think about it this way.  What if Sony released a Vita 2 this year?  What generation would it be?  Clearly it would be competing with Switch since they are both handheld devices.  If a Vita 2 launched this year, then what generation would it be?

If its all of the above then I fear you are very wrong.

By definition of generations

Video game generations are defined by the dominant game console in their marketplace. Anytime there is a significant shift in the marketplace leader to a new hardware model' that signals the start of a new generation.

The WiiU was the start of a new generation because nintendo was the market leader of the previous one. The PS4 is the market leader in this current generation and the hardware nintendo has brought forward will in no way drive game design technology forward because its based on on 5 yr old tech.  

Secondly you have to look at the software, the NS shares its game library with 8th gen platforms. And chances are when those platforms release 9th gen hardware NS will probably not et a single game from them. Until the NS2 that is. But lets see.. the NS can play games like oblivion and doom and fortnite. All games that arent available on the WiiU. S what happens when it cant play the iterations of those games on other "9th gen" hardware when they come? Does that make them 10th gen hardware instead?

If a Vita 2 launched this year and was getting the same games that the Switch and PS4/XB1 are getting then its an 8th gen machine too. 

But if you want to really be anal abut all this? This is how its really supposed to look like.


- NS is nintendo's first generation hybrid console or their 7th generation home console or their 5th generation handheld console. Depending on how yu see the switch.

- PS4 is sony's 4th generation console and XB1 is microsofts 3rd gen console.

But if you are gonna group them' then the only sensible thing to do is group them by what they all share in common (which is and always is games) and not something as arbitrary as when its released. Cause that were the case we really shuld be in the 12th gen by if you look at what happened with the atari 2600. Its successor was released around 4yrs after it but didnt catch on so they just grouped it into the same generation. Kinda what happened with the WiiU and Switch.......

Sorry to break it t you, but nintendo released two consoles in the 8th gen. Their 9th gen console will show up sometime in 2023 or so.

I think the Switch's generation will depend on how early Nintendo drops it and makes a new console. When the ps5 comes out in 2020 if by 2022-2023, Nintendo comes out with the Switch 2(not a "Switch Pro" but a whole new console) then that console would be Gen 9 and Switch gen 8. But if Nintendo waits until 2024-2025 then we will be in the same circumstance as the current switch which is debatable.



Switch : 65 millions in 2021
XB1 : 58 millions in 2021
PS4 : 125 millions in 2021



I'll only predict end life brackets with a lot of leniency towards myself.
PS4 120-150M
X1 50-60M
Switch 80-100M



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

All of the above?  Consoles in the same generation are released fairly close to one another.  On the other hand when a console goes 4-7 years and then releases a successor, you have a next generation console.  Next generation consoles play games that the previous generation could not.  

Switch is a next generation console in every sense.  It was NOT released anywhere near the PS4, XB1 or Vita.  The Wii U and 3DS WERE released near the PS4, XB1 and Vita.  They are all in the same generation, but Switch is not.  Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS releasing 4.5 and 6 years later respectively.  This is the normal time frame for releasing a next gen console.  And also Switch plays new games that the Wii U or 3DS could not: Mario Odyssey, Ulitmate Smash, Pokemon Let's Go, etc... these games are only available on Switch.

Now also think about it this way.  What if Sony released a Vita 2 this year?  What generation would it be?  Clearly it would be competing with Switch since they are both handheld devices.  If a Vita 2 launched this year, then what generation would it be?

If its all of the above then I fear you are very wrong.

By definition of generations

Video game generations are defined by the dominant game console in their marketplace. Anytime there is a significant shift in the marketplace leader to a new hardware model' that signals the start of a new generation.

The WiiU was the start of a new generation because nintendo was the market leader of the previous one. The PS4 is the market leader in this current generation and the hardware nintendo has brought forward will in no way drive game design technology forward because its based on on 5 yr old tech.  

Secondly you have to look at the software, the NS shares its game library with 8th gen platforms. And chances are when those platforms release 9th gen hardware NS will probably not et a single game from them. Until the NS2 that is. But lets see.. the NS can play games like oblivion and doom and fortnite. All games that arent available on the WiiU. S what happens when it cant play the iterations of those games on other "9th gen" hardware when they come? Does that make them 10th gen hardware instead?

If a Vita 2 launched this year and was getting the same games that the Switch and PS4/XB1 are getting then its an 8th gen machine too. 

But if you want to really be anal abut all this? This is how its really supposed to look like.


- NS is nintendo's first generation hybrid console or their 7th generation home console or their 5th generation handheld console. Depending on how yu see the switch.

- PS4 is sony's 4th generation console and XB1 is microsofts 3rd gen console.

But if you are gonna group them' then the only sensible thing to do is group them by what they all share in common (which is and always is games) and not something as arbitrary as when its released. Cause that were the case we really shuld be in the 12th gen by if you look at what happened with the atari 2600. Its successor was released around 4yrs after it but didnt catch on so they just grouped it into the same generation. Kinda what happened with the WiiU and Switch.......

Sorry to break it t you, but nintendo released two consoles in the 8th gen. Their 9th gen console will show up sometime in 2023 or so.

Uhm, let's just forget most of this discussion, and focus on your concept of generations and game library.  You know that the PS4 runs lots of generation 7 games like GTA5 and the Last of Us right?  That doesn't make it generation 7.  It also has plenty of games unique to it like God of War 4 and Spider-Man and Horizon Zero Dawn.  That is what makes it a different generation.  Some of the games have to be unique, but not all.



Lets be honest here. The term "generation" is useful because for 30 years, the three or four dominant gaming companies competed head to head in relatively tight little buckets of release window and hardware specs. This generally began with the third generation.

First gen (retrospective): Pong clones
Second gen (retrospective): First cartridge systems.  Ultimately, a long period of random things
Third gen: 8-bit systems: NES, Master System, Atari 7200
Fourth gen: 16-bit systems: SNES, Genesis
Fifth gen: Early polygon era: N64, PS1, Saturn
Sixth gen: 3D modelling begins to mature: PS2, Xbox, Gamecube, Dreamcast
Seventh gen: another leap forward: PS3, Xbox360, Wii
Eighth gen: Frankly, marginal improvements: PS4, XB1, WiiU , Switch*
More relevantly to how people define things right now. "Current gen": PS4, XB1, Switch

The problem with placing the Switch right now is how far out of order it is, coupled with the lack of new systems for other manufacturers. Also, people don't like how this breaks the nice, orderly delineation we've enjoyed since the early 1980s. However, if you go back to those early generations, there are precedents. The Atari 2600 and Atari 5200 are both second gen consoles. And they were not backwards compatible. Likewise, the Sega SG-1000 and the Master System are both third gen consoles - though this gets a little muddy since one could debate how distinct Sega's iterative releases were.

What I think happens to the Switch is that it remains a de facto eighth gen system until the PS5 and XB2 come out. At that point, the trend of using "current gen" nomenclature will result in a reassessment that shifts the Switch into the ninth gen bucket. Again, because it's neat. However, at this point in time, I think pedantic arguments about how the Switch shouldn't count since it might be classed as ninth gen in the future are unhelpful given the context these discussions are held.