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Forums - Sales Discussion - Generation 8 Prediction Time Worldwide

I'm just surprised people believe the PS4 will go past 110 million units sold.



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i'm starting to doubt if the ps4 can make 13 million this year its gonna be very very close based on supply only



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

 

    Gen Prediction Time  
Year Xbox One Playstation 4 Nintendo
2013     2,500,000* / 3,000,000
2014     5,300,000
2015     3,900,000
2016     2,900,000 / 2,750,000**
2017     1,000,000 / 5,900,000
2018     450,000 / 8,900,000
2019     110,000 / 6,200,000
2020     0 / 3,600,000
TOTALS 0 0 19,160,000 /  27,350,000***

 

* Wii U 2012 Sales

** Wii U succesor for Holiday 2016

*** Wii U succesor LTD at 2020

 

I'll edit at later numbers for the other two.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


now this is a thread i have been searching for!!
totally overestimated XO, very very low on PS4, change to second console on nintendo front looks pretty comparable
total HW doesnt seem to strange



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

which is generally also the case with the other predictions high on wii u, low on ps4 and high on XO



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

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kirby007 said:
now this is a thread i have been searching for!!
totally overestimated XO, very very low on PS4, change to second console on nintendo front looks pretty comparable
total HW doesnt seem to strange

I think you're underselling your Nintendo prediction... Almost spot on for the Switch release, *and* first year sales (though you were a bit optimistic on the WiiU)



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

It seems that PS4 was severely underestimated and the Xbox was severely overestimated. Nintendo was just too unknown to make a realistic prediction. The Wii I predictions that were made were very much off.

After 2014 though you see a lot more realistic predictions for the PS4.

It be nice to update those predictions.

Switch-80 million by 2022
Xbox-53 million by 2022
PS4-115 million by 2022



Your prediction for Nintendo Switch is pretty interesting. Very similar to what happened. You almost got the release date, and the first year shipping number, and you grouped it together with WiiU sales due to "Nintendo being out of sync with generations".

Last edited by Hiku - on 13 January 2018

This provea switch is gen 8



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

This thread is fascinating, if for no other reason than it predicts that Nintendo will release a successor at roughly the right time, but can't seem to figure out that the successor is generation 9.  

Also it's fascinating that most people seemed to think that generation 8 would turn out a lot like generation 7.  That is why most people overestimate the XB1 and underestimate the PS4.  In truth, each generation is a huge reset in the marketplace.  When people realize a) Switch is generation 9, and b) each generation is a huge reset, then they'll begin to see why the PS5 is actually in big trouble.

 

Somini said:
PS4 130*
Xbone 60
WiiU 30

Millions of units.

I like this guy.  He made a really good prediction.  Congrats to Somini!