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Forums - Sales Discussion - Generation 8 Prediction Time Worldwide

the2real4mafol on 29 November 2013

2020
PS4. 130 million
X1. 78 million
Wii U. 65 million



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

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Welfare on 29 November 2013
    Gen Prediction Time  
- Xbox One Playstation 4 Wii U
2013 2,510,000* 3,490,000* 2,400,000*
2014 10,680,000** 11,800,000** 7,100,000**
2015 11,300,000** 12,500,000** 5,600,000**
2016 12,700,000** 14,000,000** 5,000,000**
2017 13,400,000** 14,400,000** 3,200,000**
2018 14,200,000** 13,700,000** 0**
2019 13,970,000** 12,400,000** 0**
2020 10,000,000** 10,400,000** 0**
TOTALS 88,760,000*** 92,690,000*** 23,300,000***
* = thoughts on numbers now that real numbers are out.
** = thoughts on future numbers now that real numbers are out.
*** = thoughts on final numbers now that real numbers are out.

XONE - *Somewhat surprised that I was 490k below the actual number. I thought the $100 price difference to the PS4 and backlash would cause numbers to be lower. Not sub 1000k, mined you, but 2000k.
              **I still feel that these numbers will either come true, or above the actual numbers. 
              *** It's still very early to predicte, but i guess if XONE countinues to outpace the 360, 88mil will come true at the end, or even breacking 90mil.

PS4 - *To be honest, I was pessimistic when coming up with this. :P
          **If Sony countinues the hype train, they will difenatly blow my predictions out of the water.
          ***160mil lifetime? Not likely. breacking 100mil? Very possible. 90mill? If it doesn't happen, the universe will implode.

WiiU - *We all low-balled the Wii U.
             **I still feel that my numbers are acurate.
             ***It will still beat GC LTD, but nowhere near N64 LTD.


Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

kirby007 on 02 December 2013

whoop interesting prediction chef!



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 09 December 2013

MOAR



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 11 December 2013



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

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bosslug on 11 December 2013

Wii U: 60 mil
Xbone: 67 mil
PS4: 83 mil
random guesses lel



S.Peelman on 11 December 2013

Alright here you go.

I don't expect any of the 8th Gen consoles to match their predecessors. I expect a decline all across the board, because a big portion of the so-called 'casuals' have have left the market in favor of other devices. As much as people would like to pretend otherwise, this will impact all companies, though Nintendo in the biggest way.

I'll include the handhelds, because they're also 8th Gen, but I won't include this hypothetical 9th Gen Nintendo console of yours which somehow counts as some sort of 8th Gen hybrid. I don't think it's going to happen anyway.

Overall, I think the PS4 will be the clear and undisputed winner of the 8th Gen in the home-console arena, and it's basically the only one I'd give a chance of matching it's predecessor, though it won't in the end. The XBox One and the WiiU will fight for second place, with a statistical tie as the result. The 3DS will be the overall winner, but also the first one to be replaced by a successor. By the looks of things, PSVita has already peaked, but it will be a slow burner.

The 3DS successor will arrive in 2017, the home-console successors all in 2018. They will peak about two years prior, with 3DS four years prior in 2014. I think Sony will keep the PSVita alive for a long time regardless but there won't be a successor.


 XBox One PlayStation 4 WiiU PSVita 3DS
2011 - - - 0.4m 13.2m
2012 - - 2.2m 3.7m 14.5m
2013 2.8m 3.2m 3.5m 3.0m 17.1m
2014 5.6m 9.4m 5.6m  3.0m 17.3m
2015 10.2m 14.1m 9.8m  2.8m 14.5m
2016 11.0m 17.8m 10.9m  2.6m 13.8m
2017 9.8m 14.5m 9.6m  2.3m 9.8m
2018 5.9m 9.6m 5.7m  2.1m 8.2m
2019 3.8m 6.3m 2.8m 1.5m 6.3m
2020 2.0m 3.8m 1.5m  0.7m 3.0m
TOTALS ~51m ~79m ~52m
 ~22m ~118m
(LIFETIME) (53m) (85m) (53m) (22m) (119m)

Note that all this comes straight from my *ss, with little to no thought behind it. I'm sure a lot of you could tear it apart, therefore I cannot be held reliable for the information in this table.



Somini on 11 December 2013

PS4 130*
Xbone 60
WiiU 30

Millions of units.



kirby007 on 11 December 2013
S.Peelman said:

Alright here you go.

I don't expect any of the 8th Gen consoles to match their predecessors. I expect a decline all across the board, because a big portion of the so-called 'casuals' have have left the market in favor of other devices. As much as people would like to pretend otherwise, this will impact all companies, though Nintendo in the biggest way.

I'll include the handhelds, because they're also 8th Gen, but I won't include this hypothetical 9th Gen Nintendo console of yours which somehow counts as some sort of 8th Gen hybrid. I don't think it's going to happen anyway.

Overall, I think the PS4 will be the clear and undisputed winner of the 8th Gen in the home-console arena, and it's basically the only one I'd give a chance of matching it's predecessor, though it won't in the end. The XBox One and the WiiU will fight for second place, with a statistical tie as the result. The 3DS will be the overall winner, but also the first one to be replaced by a successor. By the looks of things, PSVita has already peaked, but it will be a slow burner.

The 3DS successor will arrive in 2017, the home-console successors all in 2018. They will peak about two years prior, with 3DS four years prior in 2014. I think Sony will keep the PSVita alive for a long time regardless but there won't be a successor.


 XBox One PlayStation 4 WiiU PSVita 3DS
2011 - - - 0.4m 13.2m
2012 - - 2.2m 3.7m 14.5m
2013 2.8m 3.2m 3.5m 3.0m 17.1m
2014 5.6m 9.4m 5.6m  3.0m 17.3m
2015 10.2m 14.1m 9.8m  2.8m 14.5m
2016 11.0m 17.8m 10.9m  2.6m 13.8m
2017 9.8m 14.5m 9.6m  2.3m 9.8m
2018 5.9m 9.6m 5.7m  2.1m 8.2m
2019 3.8m 6.3m 2.8m 1.5m 6.3m
2020 2.0m 3.8m 1.5m  0.7m 3.0m
TOTALS ~51m ~79m ~52m
 ~22m ~118m
(LIFETIME) (53m) (85m) (53m) (22m) (119m)

Note that all this comes straight from my *ss, with little to no thought behind it. I'm sure a lot of you could tear it apart, therefore I cannot be held reliable for the information in this table.


you expect quite some long tails that the consoles will have after their prime



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 29 December 2013

shameless reboot



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.