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kirby007 on 11 December 2013
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S.Peelman said:

Alright here you go.

I don't expect any of the 8th Gen consoles to match their predecessors. I expect a decline all across the board, because a big portion of the so-called 'casuals' have have left the market in favor of other devices. As much as people would like to pretend otherwise, this will impact all companies, though Nintendo in the biggest way.

I'll include the handhelds, because they're also 8th Gen, but I won't include this hypothetical 9th Gen Nintendo console of yours which somehow counts as some sort of 8th Gen hybrid. I don't think it's going to happen anyway.

Overall, I think the PS4 will be the clear and undisputed winner of the 8th Gen in the home-console arena, and it's basically the only one I'd give a chance of matching it's predecessor, though it won't in the end. The XBox One and the WiiU will fight for second place, with a statistical tie as the result. The 3DS will be the overall winner, but also the first one to be replaced by a successor. By the looks of things, PSVita has already peaked, but it will be a slow burner.

The 3DS successor will arrive in 2017, the home-console successors all in 2018. They will peak about two years prior, with 3DS four years prior in 2014. I think Sony will keep the PSVita alive for a long time regardless but there won't be a successor.


 XBox One PlayStation 4 WiiU PSVita 3DS
2011 - - - 0.4m 13.2m
2012 - - 2.2m 3.7m 14.5m
2013 2.8m 3.2m 3.5m 3.0m 17.1m
2014 5.6m 9.4m 5.6m  3.0m 17.3m
2015 10.2m 14.1m 9.8m  2.8m 14.5m
2016 11.0m 17.8m 10.9m  2.6m 13.8m
2017 9.8m 14.5m 9.6m  2.3m 9.8m
2018 5.9m 9.6m 5.7m  2.1m 8.2m
2019 3.8m 6.3m 2.8m 1.5m 6.3m
2020 2.0m 3.8m 1.5m  0.7m 3.0m
TOTALS ~51m ~79m ~52m
 ~22m ~118m
(LIFETIME) (53m) (85m) (53m) (22m) (119m)

Note that all this comes straight from my *ss, with little to no thought behind it. I'm sure a lot of you could tear it apart, therefore I cannot be held reliable for the information in this table.


you expect quite some long tails that the consoles will have after their prime



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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