Nintendo is still far from broke, but if anyday Nintendo becomes irrelevant to the videogame market, then we must be really worried about the videogame market itself.

I still think that both PS4 and XboxOne hype will fade fast, and all three home consoles will struggle in the coming years.

@OP:

After launch and Xmas boost, it's possible that both PS4 and XBOne outsell Wii U LTD, but we're mainly talking about early adopters, then sales will lower togrow again when the game libraries widen and prices get the first cut, in the meantime Ninty has time to straighten things up and make Wii U grow. In the end this gen could end up being very balanced, with a leader that outsells the others but not in an overwhelming way (except at launch, as we are seeing).

Let's also consider other things: new markets in growing economies and two competitors having a very strong launch and one having had a good launch but botched its first year: last gen had one with a very strong launch and first year and two with decent launches but a botched first year, and on top of that the market leader killed its creature far too early: this means that unless MS, Sony and Ninty all do big mistakes, 8th gen has very good chances to become bigger than 7th gen (obviously for home consoles only, as in portables PSV is still niche while 3DS, despite very strong, can't still match DS over long periods, despite being able to outsell it for short ones).

Considering the N64's biggest spike came in Q4 '97 as seen from Soundwave's chart, I think it's fair to say Mario 64 didn't have much to do with it.

And I think (at least, fundamentally) Gears didn't have much to do with the 360's spike either. The Wii U doesn't have a blundering $599 public enemy #1 similar competitor to be helped out by.

What I think of this "dupoly".

You mean that the biggest spike for the N64 was in its second christmas? Wow, I'm shocked. I guess next you'll tell me that the only reason the Wii sold really well was Mario Galaxy, since the spike in 2007 was much bigger than the spike in 2006.

Mario 64 was the system-seller. The N64 would have sold more at launch if there was more supply - like most consoles, it was supply-constrained at launch. Mario 64 sold over 11 million copies - that's roughly one copy for every two N64s sold.

And if you look at sales numbers of Gears of War vs Xbox 360 over November and December 2006, you'll see that Gears of War was effectively selling to something like 70% of 360 purchasers in December (it was probably more like 40-50%, since some people who already owned the console would have waited a few weeks to buy it), and more than 100% in November from launch (again, I'm ignoring earlier owners buying the system).

Like the Wii U, the Xbox 360 wasn't supply constrained through its first year at all. Watch as supply starts to be an issue once the big system-sellers start releasing.

And remember, I'm not claiming that Gears of War was *the* system seller for the entire life of the 360. Just that it was the first one. Mario 64 was the first system seller for the N64 (others include OoT, DKR, MK64, Goldeneye, and Smash Bros).

Dv8th, stop being a fanboy.

You're putting words into my mouth, like I said, I was referencing Soundwave's chart, not each system's LTD in their entirety.

All I'm saying is, it seems you're putting way too much emphasis on single titles being killer-app system sellers without evaluating other factors. Again, the 360 had millions of PS2 fanboys pissed off at the PS3, with a ground-up next gen exclusive ready to welcome them with open arms in November 2006. Had Gears been released before Sony's colossal balls-up at E3 2006, there's a good chance it would've slipped under the radar and we may have been looking at a drastically different breakout hit. Despite how people feel about the PS4 and XB1 at launch, they will not be looking at the Wii U as a viable alternative.

I'm not putting any words in your mouth. You explicitly said that, because the N64's biggest peak was in December 1997, Mario 64 couldn't explain the N64 doing well in its first year. And you said it in response to me saying that Mario 64 was the N64's biggest killer app - which is supported by the fact that it sold 11 million copies.

And the whole discussion, here, is about THE FIRST YEAR. Because that's all we have for the Wii U, to compare with other consoles. When we compare it with the N64, the key differences are the presence of a system-seller and release relative to other consoles of the generation. If we compare it with the 360, the only differences are that the 360 wasn't the computationally weakest of the consoles for its generation, and MS went on an advertising blitz - both differences that also apply when comparing the Wii U to the N64.

What I always find funny about certain elements within the gaming community is that they always dismiss Nintendo's chances, talk up Sony and/or Microsoft when they struggle, and reject any sort of reasoning that contradicts their pre-created narrative. You have completely ignored every point I've made, and sought out any little detail to justify your own misguided belief, like pointing to second-Christmas sales to argue against Mario 64 being the biggest system seller on the N64 - a fact that I've never actually heard anybody claim before - it has to be the most ignorant argument I've *ever* heard in the history of the console war absurdity, and that's saying quite a bit.

Thread is bait.

if the wii U wasnt doing too well against the ps360, how is it going to do well with ps360 AND ps4/xbox one?

Nintendo have got themselves into an awkward situation. they cant ditch the wii U and they cant match the ps4/xbox one. They should focus on 3ds and just make sure they survive until they can launch a console alongside the ps5 which is just as powerful.
If they launch early, it will be the same story all over again.