Nintendo totally irrelevant? Xbox and PS duopoly?? (Home Consoles)

[STRYKIE]

Aielyn said:

STRYKIE said:

Aielyn said:
At the equivalent point in the Xbox 360's life, it had sold 5.5 million. Wii U is at 4 million.

Xbox 360 sold about 79 million to date.

Why is the Wii U more like the 360 than the N64? Because the 360 launched a year before its rivals, but really didn't take off until a real killer app showed up about a year after launch. The N64 had its biggest killer app on day 1 (Mario 64), and released last within the generation.

The Wii U is almost keeping up with the launch-aligned 360, despite the economic circumstances, lack of major third-party support, and poor advertising by Nintendo, compared with the 360 launching during great economic circumstances, depending primarily on its strong third party support, and being by Microsoft (who are, when it comes down to it, primarily an advertising company - it's where their real skill lies).

Oh, and Wii U weekly sales now are about where 360 weekly sales were in late 2006. And Mario 3D World is about to launch.

Considering the N64's biggest spike came in Q4 '97 as seen from Soundwave's chart, I think it's fair to say Mario 64 didn't have much to do with it.

And I think (at least, fundamentally) Gears didn't have much to do with the 360's spike either. The Wii U doesn't have a blundering $599 public enemy #1 similar competitor to be helped out by.

You mean that the biggest spike for the N64 was in its second christmas? Wow, I'm shocked. I guess next you'll tell me that the only reason the Wii sold really well was Mario Galaxy, since the spike in 2007 was much bigger than the spike in 2006.

Mario 64 was the system-seller. The N64 would have sold more at launch if there was more supply - like most consoles, it was supply-constrained at launch. Mario 64 sold over 11 million copies - that's roughly one copy for every two N64s sold.

And if you look at sales numbers of Gears of War vs Xbox 360 over November and December 2006, you'll see that Gears of War was effectively selling to something like 70% of 360 purchasers in December (it was probably more like 40-50%, since some people who already owned the console would have waited a few weeks to buy it), and more than 100% in November from launch (again, I'm ignoring earlier owners buying the system).

Like the Wii U, the Xbox 360 wasn't supply constrained through its first year at all. Watch as supply starts to be an issue once the big system-sellers start releasing.

And remember, I'm not claiming that Gears of War was *the* system seller for the entire life of the 360. Just that it was the first one. Mario 64 was the first system seller for the N64 (others include OoT, DKR, MK64, Goldeneye, and Smash Bros).

You're putting words into my mouth, like I said, I was referencing Soundwave's chart, not each system's LTD in their entirety.

 

All I'm saying is, it seems you're putting way too much emphasis on single titles being killer-app system sellers without evaluating other factors. Again, the 360 had millions of PS2 fanboys pissed off at the PS3, with a ground-up next gen exclusive ready to welcome them with open arms in November 2006. Had Gears been released before Sony's colossal balls-up at E3 2006, there's a good chance it would've slipped under the radar and we may have been looking at a drastically different breakout hit. Despite how people feel about the PS4 and XB1 at launch, they will not be looking at the Wii U as a viable alternative.