Eh, I dunno if you can really say that ~22 Million units is the floor. When we look at how things are going for Wii U its drastically behind the Gamecube launches aligned, despite the Gamecube facing huge competition from a then record breaking PS2 hitting its stride along with as you said, the Wii U being in a far stronger position launching after Wii opposed to launching after N64.

Typically, Nintendo releases a new home console every 5-6 Years as we all know, though the Gamecube doing as bad as it did pushed Nintendo to get the Wii out sooner than expected.

NES - 1986
SNES - 1992
N64 - 1997
NGC - 2002
Wii - 2006
Wii U - 2012

We can quite safely say that we will have a new Nintendo console within 5 Years. 2018 at the latest, with 2017 looking the more likely Year and 2016 not out of the question.

With 1 Year out of the way and only 3.85 Million units shifted, without real next-gen competition on the market and a distinct lack of 3rd party support in comparison to anything else on the market things arent exactly looking peachy. Its worth noting too, that the 3.85 Million in a Year sounds better than what it is when you consider that 2.25 Million of that total came in the consoles opening 6 Weeks and the other 1.6 Million came in 44 Weeks.

While Mario Kart, DK and SSB will help out somewhat through 2014 you have to look beyond and between them. What else is releasing to fill in the gaps? DK hits in February, MK hits sometime during or after April and SSB doesnt have a release window other than "2014". Its all fine and dandy releasing a fairly big game every few Months, but if there is nothing inbetween the console will once again look unappealing in the public eye, especially when the competition have games releasing thick and fast.

The Wii U will die an early death simply because support isnt there. Nintendo cant pump out games quick enough to keep the public interested in the machine because they have to support the 3DS at the same time. Things were different with the Wii and DS, as the DS had a healthy string of Western 3rd party support (even if most of it was shovelware) to go along with the JP support (and a distinct lack of smartphone/tablet competition). Right now, the 3DS isnt getting that Western support that the DS thrived upon and its being hit hard by smartphones and tablets.

Nintendo cant support 2 consoles, healthily, at the same time. The 3DS is doing really well because of the Japanese support for the system. The Wii U doesnt have and wont have this luxury. They need the 3rd party support and they simply arent getting it on Wii U. This is what will ensure the Wii U will struggle to surpass the Gamecube. Its not an impossible task and its not a great number to reach, but man is it gonna be a long and painful journey for Nintendo.

I would say the floor, unless the damage to consoles is across-the-board this gen. They have broader appeal now with competition that's going to be less all-conquering. The robust lineup for 2014 does hinge on there being a substantive middle, but Smash Bros could indeed carry that weight (maybe with help from Bayonetta 2 which would be a good summer game), then roll into an end with Zelda and X and a few other second-string games. If the rumors of Nintendo beefing up development capacity are true, Wii U could buck the trend that haunted the GC and Wii of strong starts and painfully slow endings for their consoles and see more of its power towards the end, similar to the SNES.

There are a lot of variables there, but Nintendo's base appeal isn't really one of them.

This guy embraces the stupidness with such force it's almost unbelievable.

I would bet against his prediction. I would say 20m lifetime is a minimum, not a maximum. IF things don't pick up for the Wii U, sure 30m. However, I have hopes that the Wii U will pick up to 40m minimum at some point.

The damage to consoles shouldnt be across the board, it should be primarily with Nintendo. They expanded the market with Wii then totally abandoned them with Wii U, they arent coming back anytime soon simply because we dont have a Wii-like system this generation. Things are gonna shrink back to normality and the expanded audience will continue the shift to mobile devices and social media games with nothing new and exciting for them popping up to replace the Wii. I think we will see a similar userbase over PS4/Xbox One as were gonna see with PS360 - 175 to 190 Million units.

The Smash Bros effect is gonna be a lot lower than it would normally be, simply because the game is also launching on the 3DS. Providing they launch day and date with eachother I honestly wouldnt be surprised to see the 3DS version as the best selling version. Hell, we might not even see the game in 2014 at the rate Nintendo seem to be delaying things on Wii U. Bayonetta isnt going to do anyting for hardware neither, its gonna be another W101 or Sonic Lost World. The Bayonetta IP simply isnt that strong.

As for Zelda, I highly doubt we will see it releasing in 2014. Theyre averaging a new Zelda game every 2 Years, and were getting two Zelda games this Year.

Phantom Hourglass - 2007
Spirit Tracks - 2009
Skyward Sword - 2011
Wind Waker HD - 2013
Link Between Worlds - 2013

I remember Aonuma saying he had already started development of Zelda Wii U  around the middle of 2011. The game will be detailed in e3 2014, so 2014 holiday release is possible, 2015 is the latest

Guh! I'm really hoping the Wii U can prove Pachter wrong.

I think this guy need to fine something eles to do.  Who agree with me?

Holy crap, 40 mil minimum. Who is going to buy it?

I think he's right in that Nintendo fans need to buy Wii Us, but Nintendo needs to give them the games they want. 2014 should at least get the core Nintendo fans buying Wii Us.