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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Wii U, 3DS Lifetime Sales Predictions

 

Will Nintendo 3DS outsell its predecessor?

Yes 121 35.28%
 
No 220 64.14%
 
Total:341
tbone51 on 11 November 2013
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:

Yea but like i said we dont kno wat games come out 2014-2018. Its about overall nt just one boost. Example look at last year sales vs 2011 sales for 3DS. 2011 had SM3DL+MK7+LoZ OoT. Those 3 (especially the first two mentioned) are morrrrrre of a system seller than wat came out last year right? so why lower sales? Ex: What if 2016 thy have MH5+Pokemon(generation 7)+DQXI+Mario Game+Etc+etc...? THOSE Games wont push as much as SM3DL or MH4 but the push of all together can make a difference! Also Nintendo+Sony have hardware revisions out of nowhere, like how 2DS popped up. All im saying is yes it looks like this years 16mil+ 3ds might be at its peak but that still might be overthrown by another years lineup!


So, you're saying that Nintendo can create a new franchise that will be bigger than those from which games have already been released?

And actually, the 3DS sold more in 2011 than 2012.


2011 had just under 14mil and 2012 had  over 14mil. And i never said exactly new franchises, i said overall, some years have 10 major releases and another has 5. It weighs and balances, but we dont kno wat comes out and when!



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tbone51 on 11 November 2013
Soundwave said:

This is the 3DS' peak. Enjoy it.

They've thrown every type of Mario (and Luigi) at it plus Monster Hunter 3G + 4 and Pokemon X/Y and Animal Crossing and even tried to Nintendogs/cats + Brain Training stuff and had some OK third parties take a shot with Kingdom Hearts and Resident Evil. Zelda will be on it by year end too.

On top of three hardware versions (OG, XL, 2DS) and more special editions/color variants than you can throw a stick at. 

Things like Kirby and Diddy Kong Racing I can see popping up on the 3DS, but these aren't going to radically impact hardware sales. Dragon Quest XI I think is coming to 3DS, but probably to mobile also. That should cause a boost in Japan, but not really anywhere else 


Somebody said kirby+diddy kong? Anyways this will most likely be its peak year but its not set in stone yet. All im saying is keep an open mind, we might of got Pokemon XY WW this year but there are other games that can push hardware and if there are many in one year it can combine and do alot. Now if 3DS sells over 18mil this year then it'll be almost impossible to top that in todays market



Lawlight on 11 November 2013
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:

Yea but like i said we dont kno wat games come out 2014-2018. Its about overall nt just one boost. Example look at last year sales vs 2011 sales for 3DS. 2011 had SM3DL+MK7+LoZ OoT. Those 3 (especially the first two mentioned) are morrrrrre of a system seller than wat came out last year right? so why lower sales? Ex: What if 2016 thy have MH5+Pokemon(generation 7)+DQXI+Mario Game+Etc+etc...? THOSE Games wont push as much as SM3DL or MH4 but the push of all together can make a difference! Also Nintendo+Sony have hardware revisions out of nowhere, like how 2DS popped up. All im saying is yes it looks like this years 16mil+ 3ds might be at its peak but that still might be overthrown by another years lineup!


So, you're saying that Nintendo can create a new franchise that will be bigger than those from which games have already been released?

And actually, the 3DS sold more in 2011 than 2012.


2011 had just under 14mil and 2012 had  over 14mil. And i never said exactly new franchises, i said overall, some years have 10 major releases and another has 5. It weighs and balances, but we dont kno wat comes out and when!


2011: 15.04M

2012: 14.81M

The 3DS needs to sell close to 10M from October to December to meet the 2012 numbers.



tbone51 on 11 November 2013
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:

Yea but like i said we dont kno wat games come out 2014-2018. Its about overall nt just one boost. Example look at last year sales vs 2011 sales for 3DS. 2011 had SM3DL+MK7+LoZ OoT. Those 3 (especially the first two mentioned) are morrrrrre of a system seller than wat came out last year right? so why lower sales? Ex: What if 2016 thy have MH5+Pokemon(generation 7)+DQXI+Mario Game+Etc+etc...? THOSE Games wont push as much as SM3DL or MH4 but the push of all together can make a difference! Also Nintendo+Sony have hardware revisions out of nowhere, like how 2DS popped up. All im saying is yes it looks like this years 16mil+ 3ds might be at its peak but that still might be overthrown by another years lineup!


So, you're saying that Nintendo can create a new franchise that will be bigger than those from which games have already been released?

And actually, the 3DS sold more in 2011 than 2012.


2011 had just under 14mil and 2012 had  over 14mil. And i never said exactly new franchises, i said overall, some years have 10 major releases and another has 5. It weighs and balances, but we dont kno wat comes out and when!


2011: 15.04M

2012: 14.81M

The 3DS needs to sell close to 10M from October to December to meet the 2012 numbers.





zorg1000 on 11 November 2013
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
The 3DS hasnt peaked lol.


It has lol.


How do yo even kno that? U can see the future? Just because pokemon XY+MH4 came out in one year doesn't mean its at its peak. We cant say for sure in which year it will be at its peak, 2013 definitely looks most promising but we dont kno if 3DS can have another model for example and sales explode!

 

Also pokemon will have more titles and Capcom is desperate so i could see them do a MH5 game in 2015 or 2016. But Im not 100% sure cuz i dont have a crstal ball, but neither does you or anyone else.


You're forgetting that AC:NL also came out in the west this year. And one Mario and one luigi game. All the top selling DS games have already got a sequel released already. Simple logic - a sequel to Pokemon in 2 years won't push as much hardware as the recently released Pokemon.

By that logic 360 should have peaked by 2009. It already had Halo, Gears, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Fable, Forza, Assassins Creed, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Mass Effect, Left 4 Dead, Bioshock, Borderlands, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Resident Evil, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Devil May Cry, Dead Space, Dragon Age

Same goes for PS3, it should have peaked by 2010. It had Gran Turismo, God of War, Uncharted, Infamous, LittleBig Planet, Ratchet & Clank, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto, Bioshock, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Resident Evil, Dead Space, Devil May Cry, Assassins Creed, Dragon Age

Other than Kinect and price cuts/revisions there hasnt been a whole lot besides sequels to already released games for these consoles in the past few years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Lawlight on 11 November 2013
zorg1000 said:

By that logic 360 should have peaked by 2009. It already had Halo, Gears, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Fable, Forza, Assassins Creed, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Mass Effect, Left 4 Dead, Bioshock, Borderlands, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Resident Evil, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Devil May Cry, Dead Space, Dragon Age

Same goes for PS3, it should have peaked by 2010. It had Gran Turismo, God of War, Uncharted, Infamous, LittleBig Planet, Ratchet & Clank, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto, Bioshock, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Resident Evil, Dead Space, Devil May Cry, Assassins Creed, Dragon Age

Other than Kinect and price cuts/revisions there hasnt been a whole lot besides sequels to already released games for these consoles in the past few years.


You're forgetting 2 massively important things when it comes to the 360 - Kinect and massive price drops during holiday periods.

As for the PS3, yes, it did peak in 2010 but, much like the 360, it has a lot of room to drop prices.



zorg1000 on 11 November 2013

I think that 2014 will be 3DS peak year. It will be the first full year of having a $129 sku, and games like Pokemon/Mario Kart/3D Land/NSMB2/Animal Crossing will continue to push hardware along with new games like Kirby/Yoshis New Island/Smash Bros and whetever else is coming out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 11 November 2013
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

By that logic 360 should have peaked by 2009. It already had Halo, Gears, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Fable, Forza, Assassins Creed, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Mass Effect, Left 4 Dead, Bioshock, Borderlands, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Resident Evil, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Devil May Cry, Dead Space, Dragon Age

Same goes for PS3, it should have peaked by 2010. It had Gran Turismo, God of War, Uncharted, Infamous, LittleBig Planet, Ratchet & Clank, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto, Bioshock, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Resident Evil, Dead Space, Devil May Cry, Assassins Creed, Dragon Age

Other than Kinect and price cuts/revisions there hasnt been a whole lot besides sequels to already released games for these consoles in the past few years.


You're forgetting 2 massively important things when it comes to the 360 - Kinect and massive price drops during holiday periods.

As for the PS3, yes, it did peak in 2010 but, much like the 360, it has a lot of room to drop prices.

Kinect released in 2010 yet 2011 was a stronger year for 360. Also PS3 peaked in 2011 not 2010.

Ur not factoring in that 3DS has room for price cuts as well. Its been over 2 years since the original 3DS had a price cut and the XL has yet to see its first price cut. 2014 will be the first full year of having a $129 sku and 2015 could easily see price cuts for all 3 models to $99/129/149. Also there are games like Smash Bros, Kirby, Yoshis New Island, Mario 3D Land 2, Pokemon Z, Pokemon gen 3 remake, Pokemon gen 7, Dragon Quest 11, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs, Majoras Mask 3D, Advance Wars, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Kid Icarus sequel, Resident Evil sequel, Kingdom Hearts sequel and other games that could potentially release from 2014-2016 that could cause sales to increase.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

tbone51 on 11 November 2013
zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

By that logic 360 should have peaked by 2009. It already had Halo, Gears, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Fable, Forza, Assassins Creed, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Mass Effect, Left 4 Dead, Bioshock, Borderlands, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Resident Evil, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Devil May Cry, Dead Space, Dragon Age

Same goes for PS3, it should have peaked by 2010. It had Gran Turismo, God of War, Uncharted, Infamous, LittleBig Planet, Ratchet & Clank, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Batman Arkham, Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto, Bioshock, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Ghost Recon, Rainbow Six, Resident Evil, Dead Space, Devil May Cry, Assassins Creed, Dragon Age

Other than Kinect and price cuts/revisions there hasnt been a whole lot besides sequels to already released games for these consoles in the past few years.


You're forgetting 2 massively important things when it comes to the 360 - Kinect and massive price drops during holiday periods.

As for the PS3, yes, it did peak in 2010 but, much like the 360, it has a lot of room to drop prices.

Kinect released in 2010 yet 2011 was a stronger year for 360. Also PS3 peaked in 2011 not 2010.

Ur not factoring in that 3DS has room for price cuts as well. Its been over 2 years since the original 3DS had a price cut and the XL has yet to see its first price cut. 2014 will be the first full year of having a $129 sku and 2015 could easily see price cuts for all 3 models to $99/129/149. Also there are games like Smash Bros, Kirby, Yoshis New Island, Mario 3D Land 2, Pokemon Z, Pokemon gen 3 remake, Pokemon gen 7, Dragon Quest 11, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs, Majoras Mask 3D, Advance Wars, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Kid Icarus sequel, Resident Evil sequel, Kingdom Hearts sequel and other games that could potentially release from 2014-2016 that could cause sales to increase.



Great list SSB is a mystery to us all as ts the only huge game not to be on handhelds!!! Also the fact that even though 12mil copies sold over 2-4x as much people played the game and with 3DS you need your own copy!!!



Lawlight on 11 November 2013
zorg1000 said:

Kinect released in 2010 yet 2011 was a stronger year for 360. Also PS3 peaked in 2011 not 2010.

Ur not factoring in that 3DS has room for price cuts as well. Its been over 2 years since the original 3DS had a price cut and the XL has yet to see its first price cut. 2014 will be the first full year of having a $129 sku and 2015 could easily see price cuts for all 3 models to $99/129/149. Also there are games like Smash Bros, Kirby, Yoshis New Island, Mario 3D Land 2, Pokemon Z, Pokemon gen 3 remake, Pokemon gen 7, Dragon Quest 11, Monster Hunter 5, Final Fantasy remakes/spinoffs, Majoras Mask 3D, Advance Wars, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Kid Icarus sequel, Resident Evil sequel, Kingdom Hearts sequel and other games that could potentially release from 2014-2016 that could cause sales to increase.


First, not all of those games will push systems. Secondly, those games won't push as much as their first outing on the system.

Let's look at the facts though - the 3DS needs to sell close to 10M from October to December or sales will down YoY.