Really depends on Nintendo. Sony has showed no indication that they can reach beyond the current PS3 market in terms of casual gamers. However, they can acquire some market share from Microsoft if MS can't right the ship.
The question is whether Nintendo can appeal to the casual market the way they did in the past. As of late, Nintendo's been making some smart decisions with the way they're moving with Wii Sports, Wii Party, and Wii Fit, and attractive new bundles. If this software, particularly Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club, can take off in terms of their online features, it could really propel the Wii U, especially with the rest of the lineup.
It's all down to the marketing right now, and if Nintendo can match their strong lineup with strong marketing, I think the Wii U can take a lead that will hold for at least 3 years. IF Microsoft can maintain a 40-60% market share between them and Sony, the Wii U can stay ahead forever.
There are a whole lot of variables here. There is only one thing we know for sure; If you're one of the 35 people who think the Wii U will be outsold by Christmas then......... I can't think of a way to finish that sentence in an unbanworthy way.
















