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Forums - Nintendo - W101 is going to be a gargantuan flop

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curl-6 on 26 August 2013
Soundwave said:
I think the truth is there's only a few IP that Nintendo can reliably sell anymore.

Anything with Mario in it sells reasonably well. Zelda/DKC are b-tier. Yoshi/Kirby are c-tier.

Everything else I think is becoming a tough sell on Nintendo home consoles, even for Nintendo themselves. Partly because I think Nintendo really did not build much critical mass with core players the last 7-8 years. They were busy with casual consumers, but now that they're gone, Nintendo is finding they have a loyal group of consumers that buy a very narrow range of games, and they've lost everyone else.

It used to be even on the N64, new IP like Banjo-Kazooie, GoldenEye, 1080 Snowboarding, Turok, etc. could become big hits, and other non-Mario/Zelda IP could do very well for themselves too like F-Zero and Wave Race and Star Fox.

Even on the GameCube things like Viewtiful Joe, Tales of Symphonia, Pikmin, etc. were able to find good sized audiences, although the regression here was definitely visible as the userbase was becoming too small.

Games like Bayonetta 2, X, Wonderful 101 don't have much of a chance on Wii U IMO. Even Pikmin 3 I think is probably going to have to struggle to break even.

On Wii new IPs like Xenoblade, Shaun White Snowboarding, Endless Ocean, Boom Blox, and de Blob were able to carve out solid sales.

Pikmin 3's already at 350k after just 1 week in NA, 3 in Europe, and 5 in Japan. It has a good shot at reaching Pikmin 2 GCN numbers. I very much doubt it has to do huge numbers to break even; this is Nintendo, they don't blow their budget on unsustainably expensive games like much of the rest of the industry.

X and Bayonetta are not in the same position as W101 at all; they don't have its overwhelming problems.



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burninmylight on 26 August 2013
Mnementh said:
Soundwave said:
Mnementh said:
burninmylight said:
This game would really benefit from some air time on children's networks like Disney and Nickelodeon.

It's not targeted at children.


Pretty sure it is there boss. In the Iwata Asks it's stated that Nintendo asked Kamiya to change the art style of the characters so it would appeal more to elementary aged school kids.

If that is the case it was a pretty stupid decision.

 

If you look at it from a standpoint of who it's been advertised toward so far, you're right. It's targeted at the hardest of the hardcore Nintendo fans who watch Nintendo Directs and go out of their way to follow Nintendo news, so Nintendo doesn't even need to get their attention anyway. But we want the game to not be a total sleeper hit, so we want it to get some TV/Hulu spots.

Would you have made it darker and edgier? Moot point, as we know it's a game featuring goofy, colorful superheroes fighting giant robots (hello super sentai/Power Rangers). You can't tell me kids wouldn't eat that up.



oniyide on 26 August 2013
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

its not a M rated game either so...now that i think of it Ninty rarely publishes M rated games themselves, I wonder why?

We were talking about Bayonetta 2. It's almost certain to be M rated.


thats more an exception than a rule and that is kinda copublished with Sega

Sega aren't co-publishing.

http://www.tssznews.com/2012/09/13/sega-acting-as-advisor-to-bayonetta-2-project-not-co-publishing/

fair enough but the iP still belongs to Sega, and my point was that Ninty doesnt publish alot of M rated games, much less than the other two



curl-6 on 26 August 2013
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

thats more an exception than a rule and that is kinda copublished with Sega

Sega aren't co-publishing.

http://www.tssznews.com/2012/09/13/sega-acting-as-advisor-to-bayonetta-2-project-not-co-publishing/

fair enough but the iP still belongs to Sega, and my point was that Ninty doesnt publish alot of M rated games, much less than the other two

They still do publish them though, and when Nintendo gamers deem mature rated games to be desirable enough, (RE4/RE0/REmake, the COD3/W@W/MW1/BO) they will buy them.



Soundwave on 26 August 2013
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
I think the truth is there's only a few IP that Nintendo can reliably sell anymore.

Anything with Mario in it sells reasonably well. Zelda/DKC are b-tier. Yoshi/Kirby are c-tier.

Everything else I think is becoming a tough sell on Nintendo home consoles, even for Nintendo themselves. Partly because I think Nintendo really did not build much critical mass with core players the last 7-8 years. They were busy with casual consumers, but now that they're gone, Nintendo is finding they have a loyal group of consumers that buy a very narrow range of games, and they've lost everyone else.

It used to be even on the N64, new IP like Banjo-Kazooie, GoldenEye, 1080 Snowboarding, Turok, etc. could become big hits, and other non-Mario/Zelda IP could do very well for themselves too like F-Zero and Wave Race and Star Fox.

Even on the GameCube things like Viewtiful Joe, Tales of Symphonia, Pikmin, etc. were able to find good sized audiences, although the regression here was definitely visible as the userbase was becoming too small.

Games like Bayonetta 2, X, Wonderful 101 don't have much of a chance on Wii U IMO. Even Pikmin 3 I think is probably going to have to struggle to break even.

On Wii new IPs like Xenoblade, Shaun White Snowboarding, Endless Ocean, Boom Blox, and de Blob were able to carve out solid sales.

Pikmin 3's already at 350k after just 1 week in NA, 3 in Europe, and 5 in Japan. It has a good shot at reaching Pikmin 2 GCN numbers. I very much doubt it has to do huge numbers to break even; this is Nintendo, they don't blow their budget on unsustainably expensive games like much of the rest of the industry.

X and Bayonetta are not in the same position as W101 at all; they don't have its overwhelming problems.


The Wii benefitted from a 100 million userbase and naturally there's going to be some inflation from a 20-30 million userbase to a 90+ million one. Boom Blox and de Blob and Red Steel and Shaun White are largely IP that have been put on ice, so I'm not sure those are the best examples.

I don't believe Pikmin 3 will sell up to Pikmin 2 and it probably has a much larger budget.

Ditto for X and Bayo 2. Those games are at best going to sell 1 million WW if *everything* goes right for the Wii U from here on out, which is unlikely.

X and Bayo 2 have their own issues ... JRPGs aren't popular anywhere, even in Japan these days anything not named FF/DQ struggles. Bayo 2 is a hardcore action that's pretty weird on absolutely the worst platform for that type of game.



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Max King of the Wild on 26 August 2013
curl-6 said:
 

On Wii new IPs like Xenoblade, Shaun White Snowboarding, Endless Ocean, Boom Blox, and de Blob were able to carve out solid sales.

Pikmin 3's already at 350k after just 1 week in NA, 3 in Europe, and 5 in Japan. It has a good shot at reaching Pikmin 2 GCN numbers. I very much doubt it has to do huge numbers to break even; this is Nintendo, they don't blow their budget on unsustainably expensive games like much of the rest of the industry.

X and Bayonetta are not in the same position as W101 at all; they don't have its overwhelming problems.



http://www.screwattack.com/news/miyamoto-says-nintendo-underestimated-amount-manpower-needed-hd-game-development

I dont think this game is as cheap as you would think it is. Probably a good amount more than anything on the Wii Nintendo did for the sole reason being its HD



curl-6 on 26 August 2013
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
I think the truth is there's only a few IP that Nintendo can reliably sell anymore.

Anything with Mario in it sells reasonably well. Zelda/DKC are b-tier. Yoshi/Kirby are c-tier.

Everything else I think is becoming a tough sell on Nintendo home consoles, even for Nintendo themselves. Partly because I think Nintendo really did not build much critical mass with core players the last 7-8 years. They were busy with casual consumers, but now that they're gone, Nintendo is finding they have a loyal group of consumers that buy a very narrow range of games, and they've lost everyone else.

It used to be even on the N64, new IP like Banjo-Kazooie, GoldenEye, 1080 Snowboarding, Turok, etc. could become big hits, and other non-Mario/Zelda IP could do very well for themselves too like F-Zero and Wave Race and Star Fox.

Even on the GameCube things like Viewtiful Joe, Tales of Symphonia, Pikmin, etc. were able to find good sized audiences, although the regression here was definitely visible as the userbase was becoming too small.

Games like Bayonetta 2, X, Wonderful 101 don't have much of a chance on Wii U IMO. Even Pikmin 3 I think is probably going to have to struggle to break even.

On Wii new IPs like Xenoblade, Shaun White Snowboarding, Endless Ocean, Boom Blox, and de Blob were able to carve out solid sales.

Pikmin 3's already at 350k after just 1 week in NA, 3 in Europe, and 5 in Japan. It has a good shot at reaching Pikmin 2 GCN numbers. I very much doubt it has to do huge numbers to break even; this is Nintendo, they don't blow their budget on unsustainably expensive games like much of the rest of the industry.

X and Bayonetta are not in the same position as W101 at all; they don't have its overwhelming problems.


The Wii benefitted from a 100 million userbase and naturally there's going to be some inflation from a 20-30 million userbase to a 90+ million one. Boom Blox and de Blob and Red Steel and Shaun White are largely IP that have been put on ice, so I'm not sure those are the best examples.

I don't believe Pikmin 3 will sell up to Pikmin 2 and it probably has a much larger budget.

Ditto for X and Bayo 2. Those games are at best going to sell 1 million WW if *everything* goes right for the Wii U from here on out, which is unlikely.

X and Bayo 2 have their own issues ... JRPGs aren't popular anywhere, even in Japan these days anything not named FF/DQ struggles. Bayo 2 is a hardcore action that's pretty weird on absolutely the worst platform for that type of game.

They show that there is still room for new IPs to be successful though.

Pikmin 3 and X are Nintendo games, so they will not have titanic budgets that require 2 million plus sales to make a profit. That's just not something Nintendo does.

Xenoblade was a JRPG too, and a new IP, and it was able to do 840k on a system that was all but abandoned  at the time. X will have the added boost of a highly acclaimed predecessor, as will Bayo 2.



oniyide on 26 August 2013
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

thats more an exception than a rule and that is kinda copublished with Sega

Sega aren't co-publishing.

http://www.tssznews.com/2012/09/13/sega-acting-as-advisor-to-bayonetta-2-project-not-co-publishing/

fair enough but the iP still belongs to Sega, and my point was that Ninty doesnt publish alot of M rated games, much less than the other two

They still do publish them though, and when Nintendo gamers deem mature rated games to be desirable enough, (RE4/RE0/REmake, the COD3/W@W/MW1/BO) they will buy them.

barely and those other series are popular and were established prior to them hitting any ninty platform



curl-6 on 26 August 2013
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

fair enough but the iP still belongs to Sega, and my point was that Ninty doesnt publish alot of M rated games, much less than the other two

They still do publish them though, and when Nintendo gamers deem mature rated games to be desirable enough, (RE4/RE0/REmake, the COD3/W@W/MW1/BO) they will buy them.

barely and those other series are popular and were established prior to them hitting any ninty platform

Still counts.



oniyide on 26 August 2013
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

fair enough but the iP still belongs to Sega, and my point was that Ninty doesnt publish alot of M rated games, much less than the other two

They still do publish them though, and when Nintendo gamers deem mature rated games to be desirable enough, (RE4/RE0/REmake, the COD3/W@W/MW1/BO) they will buy them.

barely and those other series are popular and were established prior to them hitting any ninty platform

Still counts.


??? never said it didnt. just say they dont do it near as much as the other two or anyone else for that matter, probably cause they know their audience