If Nintendo can match the holiday sales of the GameCube from fall 2002 (its second holiday season), I think more or less that'll be a win in Nintendo's eyes, because so far for the year it's been trending below the GCN.

In America, maybe. In Japan they are going to destroy the GameCube.

The Japanese lineup isn't that great to be honest.

Sonic, Rayman are non-factors. So are the Western titles that Nintendo does have.

Mario 3D World is ok, but Japan tends to prefer 2D Mario pretty decidely, so I don't see that helping Wii U more than NSMBU did.

Wii Fit U and Wii Party U need to still have a market there, but I'm somewhat doubtful on that. DKC is a decent seller, but again DKC generally sells less than 2D Mario, it's basically a "diet" version of 2D Mario as far as sales go there.

The Japanese third party support is *horrible*. For people crapping on Western third parties, the Japanese support is far worse. Nothing major from Konami, Square-Enix, Capcom, Bandai-Namco, etc.

The PS4 version of Watch Dogs isn't going to be that much prettier or more impressive than the Wii U version. They're not going to expend valueable time and resources just to make the PS4 version "super next gen", it's going to be the same thing the Wii U version is: a somewhat sharper, shinier version of the PS3 game. Without, of course, the Wii U's GamePad mechanics. I have no doubt the PS4 version will be even sharper and shinier than the Wii U, but I don't seriously think that it will be the massive difference you're inferring.

Perhaps you need to look again, friend. Last I cheked, that probably-not-even-beta footage we all saw of "X", already looked beyond just about anything I've seen on 360 or PS3. Mind you, I realize that something like The Last of Us graphically looks very very good. But then again, you're comparing late generation PS3 software, to basically first generation Wii U software. Regardless, the FINAL, finished, polished version of "X", or whatever it winds up actually being called, is going to look far better than the very early footage we've already seen. Guaranteed.

There is no chance, whatsoever, that it "looks no better than a AAA PS3 exclusive", by the time it's fully done and released.

I can never tell whether or not you're being sarcastic. 

Clearly the Japanese line-up hardly matters, because in about 9 months, with pretty much no noteworthy releases since launch, the console has already sold 1/4 the GameCube's lifetime sales in Japan.

You also aren't giving Mario 3D World enough credit. It's the follow-up to the massively popular 3D Land, so it has that going for it. Bear in mind that 3D Land will probably be Japan's best-selling 3D Mario game by the end of this year, even surpassing Mario 64, probably breaking 2 mil sales in the region. You may argue that 3D Land owes its success in Japan to being a handheld title, but that's only half of the picture, and no guarantee of superiority; New Super Mario Bros. 2, for instance, is tracking well below New Super Mario Bros. Wii sales in Japan, despite the 3DS already being on the verge of surpassing Wii hardware sales. Mario Kart 7 is also tracking below its Wii predecessor in Japan. Under these circumstances, you should not be surprised to learn that Super Mario 3D Land is not selling as quickly as Super Mario Galaxy sold -- but that's not the case. It has already surpassed both Galaxy titles in lifetime sales.

3D Land was more than just a 3D Mario game on a handheld. It represents a rebranding of 3D Mario to more closely resemble 2D Mario. It owes a significant amount of its relative success to this rebranding. 3D World is a continuation of this new 3D Mario style, and is poised to reap the benefits of its predecessor's popularity, especially in Japan.

You neglect to consider The Wind Waker -- unlike in America, in Japan this is the best-selling console Zelda title since Ocarina of Time. It is outsold in the past 15 years only by its direct sequel on DS, Phantom Hourglass.

As far as I'm aware, Konami, Square-Enix, and Capcom don't even have any major titles coming out for the rest of this year. Most of them are scheduled for next year -- or not at all.

Really, the Wii U may not have much in Japan, but it won't take much to beat the GameCube's pitiful performance there.

I could be wrong but I believe as of now, the Wii U is behind the GCN even in Japan. But yes you're right it probably will eventually overtake it, though I don't think it will be by all that much. I suspect Wii U will finish in Japan similar to the N64 (about 5 million-ish).

NSMB2 has outsold 3D Land already in Japan, so I think that shows that 2D Mario (even on the low scale) is still more popular than the best selling 3D Mario (on track to be anyway).

I don't see the Wii U as being a huge success in Japan, but that's just my take. I think consoles in general are going to decline again this cycle in Japan, the Wii U is going to sell much less than the Wii and the PS4 IMO will sell less than the PS3.

I'm thinking more along the lines of 6-7mil. Smash and Mario Kart will do well for it next year.

Maybe. I'm going a little lower than that though.

I think the Wii U will have a large drop from the Wii in every market, and Japan will be no exception, especially with home consoles losing favor there.

I don't see the PS4 selling as much as the PS3 either.