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Forums - Sales Discussion - "PS4 preorders trending about 4:1 ahead of One in NA" - famousmortimer (rumour)

Well If nobody believes the preorder charts then why is everyone singing the praises of how well Killzone:Shadows Fall and some other PS4 games are doing? I'm just saying if the preorder charts are completely wrong and I mean COMPLETELY then 4 : 1 is possible but if the the charts are even remotely accurate then 2 : 1 at most.



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Playstation Saudi arabia posted this today, google translates the name of it to "ready for october?"

the video features basically the ps4 and its games

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQPCYaafTBA&feature=youtu.be



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http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=163875&page=14#10

Let me just put this here.



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Icy-Zone said:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=163875&page=14#10

Let me just put this here.

Good prediction but WW will be bigger



tuscaniman99 said:
Well If nobody believes the preorder charts then why is everyone singing the praises of how well Killzone:Shadows Fall and some other PS4 games are doing? I'm just saying if the preorder charts are completely wrong and I mean COMPLETELY then 4 : 1 is possible but if the the charts are even remotely accurate then 2 : 1 at most.

Official trackers said about Killzone preorders... not the preorder here



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What is the preorder ratio of Pokemon to PS4?



tuscaniman99 said:
Well If nobody believes the preorder charts then why is everyone singing the praises of how well Killzone:Shadows Fall and some other PS4 games are doing? I'm just saying if the preorder charts are completely wrong and I mean COMPLETELY then 4 : 1 is possible but if the the charts are even remotely accurate then 2 : 1 at most.


Even if the pre-order charts were 100% accurate it wouldn't make 4 to 1 impossible. Let's consider a few things. First, Call of Duty and Battlefield are the only two XOne titles in the Top 40. For the PS4 there are five with Watch Dogs, Killzone, Call of Duty, Battlefield, and Assassin's Creed. Adding up all of those current pre-orders puts the total PS4 games in the top 40 at over 600,000 while the XOne games are only over 190,000. That's a 3 to 1 difference in pre-order totals of next gen titles in the Top 40. It could be even more than that if we got to see all pre-orders.

The number of people buying Call of Duty for the XOne could be a significant percentage. After all, the Xbox One reveal event showcased the game for 10 minutes out of a 1 hour presentation and it's quite easy to see how multiplatform games would get higher numbers on the platforms they were promoted on at big events. Watch Dogs is a pretty good example of that. Not to mention that Xbox is generally recognized, accurate or not, as the Call of Duty platform. It is the only XOne title that appears to be close at all to its PS4 counterpart.

It's not as simple as comparing the highest pre-order titles for each platform or comparing where the versions of the same game stand against each other. We also don't know how many people bought multiple titles to start. If PS4 owners are typically only picking up one or two games per console whereas XOne owners grab three or more, or vice versa, that would certainly throw off the predictions. There are too many variables for game pre-order charts to give us any accurate idea of the gap between the platforms no matter how accurate the charts are. All that can be said is how the individual titles stack up to one another and how many more game pre-orders one console is getting compared to another. It is still very much possible we're looking at such a gap in platform sales but I'm going to guess it will have more to do with the fact that the PS4 has been keeping its stock up while XOne seems to be struggling.

EDIT: Should also probably take into account the people who have pre-ordered a console but not any games. Three of my friends have done this. They paid off their pre-orders but aren't pre-ordering any games because they either expect plenty of games to be available on launch day or because they're undecided which games they're getting.



DD_Bwest said:

Playstation Saudi arabia posted this today, google translates the name of it to "ready for october?"

the video features basically the ps4 and its games

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQPCYaafTBA&feature=youtu.be

If Sony launches in october, the XBO is dead.



tuscaniman99 said:
Well either the preorder numbers are so far off that they might as well not exist or this guy is way off base. I'll go with the latter. All we have to do is look at COD:Ghosts preorder numbers and we can see that 4:1 is impossible.

I just did the math and the attach ratio for BLOPS2 on PS3 is around 16% while on the Xbox 360 it is around 19%. Now we can go ahead and ignore those figures and say that the attach ratio for COD:Ghosts is twice as much on the Xbox One in NA than the PS4. Then we can go ahead and make an even more ridiculous statement and say the attach ratio is 50% preorders on Xbox One so therefore the PS4 attach ratio is only 25%.

So lets use these numbers that skew PS4 preorder totals towards its favor over the Xbox One and see what we get.

PS4 - COD:Ghosts preorder (129,048) x attach ratio (25% which = 4 consoles per preorder) = 129,048 x 4 = 516,192.

Xbox One - COD:Ghosts preorder (114,778) x attach ratio (50% which = 2 consoles per preorder) = 114,778 x 2 = 229,556.

We can conclude that ratio is the PS4 preorders outpacing 2.2 : 1. You can't argue with these numbers. If attach ratio of COD:Ghosts is similar for these next gen consoles as the PS3 and Xbox One then we are looking at a 1.2 : 1 ratio in PS4's favor.

If you still want to argue that the PS4 must be 3 : 1 or even a ridiculous 4 : 1 in preorder numbers over Xbox One then COD:Ghosts must have an astonishing 75% or more attach ratio which means the COD crowd has already picked its console winner. MS will have the COD crowd in their pocket once again and will win America.

Which scenario is most plausible to you? I believe the numbers are PS4 > Xbox One 1.5 : 1 at most.

Or maybe you don't know what you are talking about?

Also the 4 to 1 ratio is an internal Sony projection. That's going to be pretty accurate. Much more than numbers given online for free.



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