RolStoppable said:
The economic conditions have changed drastically, so anytime you extrapolate from previous generations to the eighth one without taking the current world economy into account, you will end up being horribly wrong. You have seen the Vita which was supposed to do well. It was priced similarly to the PSP, but launched with a much better lineup. About 1.5 years back (right around the Vita's launch in America and Europe) we had a discussion where you were insisting that all the PSV needed was a reasonable amount of games, because everything else was right. That was in response to my claims that the handheld would struggle badly. I then told you that the PSV will definitely need a price cut, because by May 2012 it will have fallen below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales. What happened is that the PSV got there in April, a month before my estimate. Now you can come up with any excuses you like (smartphones etc.), but there is always Japan where the PSP was popular throughout its entire life. The PSV already got its price cut to 20,000 yen and last week it didn't even get past the 20k mark on the back of a new software release that pushed 80k units. The PSP didn't break a sweat to have a baseline of 30k units. The PSV goes for the same audience as the PSP, but that audience isn't really getting on board just yet. One deciding factor in this is that the PSP was still supplied with plenty of games well into the eighth generation and that is exactly what we can expect for the PS3 and 360 as well. Why go for an expensive upgrade to play the same exact games (or rather fewer games, because not all third parties will be present on the new consoles immediately)? The intial PS4 and X1 exclusives don't scream "killer app", so there will be a widespread lack of incentives for consumers to buy into the eighth generation at first, resulting in disappointing sales for next gen hardware. As for price specifically, $500 was insane in 2006, so it's even more bonkers in 2013. The X1 is destined to struggle based on price alone. $400 for the PS4 is also a hefty amount, but right now many are under the illusion that it is a great price for two reasons: The PS3 was $600 and the X1 is $500. But just because there is something worse doesn't make something else good. And when you hear news like "40% of the youth in Spain is unemployed" (the age demographic that the PS4 is supposed to sell to intially), then even traditional strongholds of Sony won't help them much. It is possible that a $400 PS4 will do worse than the $600 PS3 because of the current economic conditions. Lastly, to put some numbers out there, I say that both the X1 and PS4 will go below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales in 2014. For the X1 I am more daring and say that it will go below 50k, because the system has too much going against it, based on the currently available information. Now tell me at which point you would consider sales to be terrible. |
You do know that economic pendulum does swing. I guess you have not been keeping up with US stock market levels, US unemployment, weekly job claims, monthly car sales, different regions manufacturing, they all are pointing to signs of continuing stabilization/strength in the US economy. Even if you believe the numbers are fed induced, you can see clear improvement from the depths of 2009. Different regions in Europe and Asia are also starting to see pickup in economic activity also. As long as the wealth effect comes in to play, discretionary spending will rise.
And Wii U current sales to me as saying that the core gamer, the only who are willing to plop down 400 for a new game systems are doing just that, preording the systems and waiting. The expensive part only comes for the previous Wii owner, who are faced with higher console price, higher accessories price, price of DLC, higher priced software (most wii games retailed for $39.99 (19.99 for most of the shovelware) now with most jumping to 60) and no resemblance to the console they had before (patches, system updates, online yet unfulfilling).
The 20,000 Yen price for the Vita is still expensive to its main competitor and to its own predecessor (which the Vita is still competing with). Even so the console is still experiencing y/y growth, as it should with a price cut. You are really tallying weekly vita sales based on C-level games; get that shit out of here. It’s more proof that if the Vita can land B level and A level type games, the system will respond accordingly, even with the above caveats hindering its sales…and the market leader is only had week /week sales decline on a game that opened on 250k sales in the same time period.
The 400 dollar price point for the PS4 and soon to be 400 dollar price point for the Xbox are comparable to many big ticket discretionary items that have since come out from 2006, namely tablets, high end smart phones and gaming graphics cards. With many retailers and the manufactures themselves saying that demand for these systems is high, it looks like they have ready buyers for launch. And with both systems having already better 3rd party support than the current Wii U, both systems are going to experience better stabilization.
And lastly you are going to be wrong once again on your stance of current gen games ability to hinder the xbox and ps4 sales. I’m sure if BenV was still here, he would tell you that is nonsense.
