And what's to say the Wii U won't have a large price drop? Even if it doesn't, comparing it to something which happened over a decade ago is probably pushing it a tad. It's a completely different market. If that was the case, then the PS4 will easily, easily double the other systems combined next gen, but we all know that wont be happening.

In addition, very few are tying numbers to these predictions. It's highly likely that the PS4 and Xbone will fight for the same market and hurt each other, whilst fighting against the current gen and the likes of GTA and GT. Also, the first year is pretty much universally bad, and all the other 3 systems have had a bad first year. Add in the fact that neither systems have a true "killer app" for launch, and most of the games have current gen or Wii U counterparts. So why should it be different for the new consoles, when they have even more going against them than other systems?

Conversely, the Wii U has had it's first year, and has some truly huge games coming. I don't believe anyone is really thinking it'll sell GC levels now, either. So, even with the terrible start for the Wii U, there's enough going for it and enough going against the other systems for the Wii U to edge it, or at least be close (which doesn't seem to be the case in your thinking). 

Ofcourse, Id welcome your reply and your thinking, so long as we don't talk about press reactions (Vita, Wii) or preorders (Wii U) as the baSE of your argument. And attaching numbers to your prediction would be useful as well, so we can see what kind of gaps we're talking about.

I don't know about marketing issues, because it is too early to tell if Sony and Microsoft's marketing will be effective or not, but I'm sure that both will have content issues. Both have no huge system sellers coming out until at least holiday 2014.

Witcher 3 will be a next gen system seller, that may come as early as Q2. 

Individually both xbox and PS4 have some decent titles around for Q1/Q2

Xbox One- Kinect Sports Rivals, Titan Fall, Project Spark

PS4: Infamous:Second Son, possibly The Order 1886 and yet to be anounced titles.

Also it should be noted that a game doesn't need to be next gen exclusive to be a system seller. Just look at what Toukiden done for the Vita in Japan. 

To be fair Microsoft has had marketing issues pre launch.....with its own fanbase no less.

It will. They will sell slowly the first year for them, but slow for them is still better than Nintendos first year. There will be more games and more variety than Nintendo could've offered first year on both consoles exclusively. I am calling ten million first year. It was media issues, most people dont know or care about a tablet. Either that or Nintendo has gone into hiding because their messaging has been wrong. If they were going to use a tablet they ned to sell its value to people. The reason being is Sony and Microsoft much like Nintendo in their heyday were selling straight forward consoles with a large amount of third party exclusives as well as their primary exclusives. These Wiimotes and tablets are huge risks. Either it catches on or it doesnt like every gimmick. MS will trail Sony until Halo 5 launches and then it will get super competitive.

And food for thought with gamecube to wii u comparison. The gamecube came out a year after ps2 established itself firmly in the market. And it's still manage to move units with Smash and Kart. It was later on in it's life cycle that it lost momentum completely.

Witcher 3 won't sell many copies, just like the first 2, and the game will sell better on PC than any console. Kinect Sports Rivals is not a system seller. Titanfall is not exclusive, and people won't pay $500 to get it with better graphics. Project Spark is also on PC, and not a system seller. Infamous games don't sell more than a couple million copies, and fans may not buy it because it is not called Infamous 3,and will think it is just an unnecessary prequel, similar to what happened to God of War: Acension. The Order 1886 probably won't release till holiday 2014. Toukiden gave the Vita a small hardware boost, and now it is back to normal post price cut levels.

I'm sure witcher 3 will be one of the best selling games of the year. Look at the media hype surrounding it, its not even comparable to any previous installments. Not to mention that the previous games were both initially PC exclusive. It will sell consoles, no doubt. 
the 2 weeks following Toukidens release saw more Vita's sold han the previous 4 weeks  prior combined, if thats not a strong hardware push I don't know what is. That in itself is proof that cross gen titles can still help next gen hardware if the software is strong enough, and there are plenty of great cross gen titles coming to the PS4/XB1. I have no doubt that Titan fall will strongly push Xbox One hardware and same for Infamous. Its not so much a case of either platform having an individual title as strong as mario kart, but about them having a very strong overall line up. That is what you need for strong, consistent hardware titles. Inly nintendo can sell hardware with one game.

Anyways that is just my opinion on the matter, I do not expect either the xbox 1 or Ps4 to struggle after launch, not with such a robust line up of AAA titles both at launch and through 2014. Its the complete opposite of the Wii U's 1st year.

Surely if Wii U got most 3rd party games that are released on Xbox One and PS4 too, it should bet both at least for a time. I mean it's the cheapest of the 3. 

One other thing is that GC changed up all of there franchises, Mario Sunshine seemed like a spin off, Zelda was too cartoony for most people, Donkey Kong only had music/rhythm games, Star Fox was no longer a shooter, and Kirby was a racing game. Smash Bros and Mario Kart were pretty much the only big franchises to stay the same and Metroid was the only one that beneffited from changing.

So far from Wii U we have a traditional Donkey Kong, a multiplayer accessible 3D Mario, Smash Bros and Mario Kart again use the same formula qnd im sure Zelda/Metroid/Kirby/Star Fox will be traditional installments once they release.