DFC Intelligence had some ridiculous projections back at the start of the last gen so I don't give their estimates any credance.

Originally (last spring) I projected WiiU with 30m lifetime sales (and everyone said I was crazy and way too low). Now, that guess is looking way over-optimistic. While I'm sure sales will pick up over the current tripid level, but great games will simply come too late and WiiU started at too high a price point (for what it's offering) for it to ever become in demand. Add an overall shrinking market and greater competition in the field and even hitting 20m seems highly optimistic to me now.

I think Nintendo realizes it's made some fundimentally bad mistakes with WiiU. I think they've known it pre-launch but were too committed to change course. However, the question remains how long do they stay with WiiU? My guess is if sales don't turn around - dramatically - by Mario Kart 8 dropping, WiiU will have the shortest lifespan of any Nintendo console. Fact is the market is changing radically and if Nintendo is to ever have another hit home console or home/portable console it needs to be released sooner rather than later. So if WiiU/3DS continue to underperform I project a new Nintendo system in 2016 to compete more directly with PS4/XB1 and to also more significantly differeniate from them than WiiU does from PS3/360.

Consequently WiiU's lifetime sales will be cut even shorter. Probably

Ha, as if anyone who actually plays games went ps3 or x360 only that gen to begin with.  Everyone had a wii or powerful PC to play everything the rest of the industry was playing, as will be the case once again with the Wii U.

If you think my sentence was offensive then you're a big hypocrite. I went wii only this past gen and am very sactisfied with it. surely there were games on ps360 I wanted to play on wii but had I gone ps360 only there would have been far more games i could only play on wii.

You can like your ps360 as much as you want but don't go offending people just because they didn't see a need to buy the same toy as you.

These are fair points. My point stands that price is important, much like it was for all cases except the PS0ne and PS2 (which we both agree are exceptions because they added values like media-playback).

The U has one difference with other low-end devices, in that the padlet creates overhead cost. So even though the system is low-end, the console is still pricy. Another thing to keep in mind.

So for those reasons I believe the U needs to lower its price in order to ensure success. It also helps that the market Nintendo is aiming at generally buys into price-sensitive proposals.

I can think of one.  When Gamecube released, PS2 had already been on the market for well over a year.  It had already sold over 10 million units by that point, and had sold over 18 million units before Gamecube was 6 months old.  PS2 was well on its way to becoming an unstoppable juggernaut before Gamecube even made it to the shelf.  There isn't now (and isn't going to be) a PS2 type system to guarrantee Wii U of no hope of picking up steam once Nintendo comes through with it's first party games.  While Nintendo hasn't created any momentum for themselves by releasing early, what they have done is gotten that first year of growing pains out of the way early before the other consoles release.  I think to make a statement that Wii U has no reason to have better lifetime sales than the Gamecube before we see how it does this coming holiday season with all it's first party releases is premature (if ignorant is too harsh a word).

It's not too harsh.

Word of mouth & good reviews > Surface value. I have a feeling Zelda U will be more dark though.

< 20 Million? I don't believe that is possible. Nintendo is bigger now than during the GC and Wii U still has a lot more potential. 

Yes.
Casual market would came to wii U, since they love mario kart.

because the situation of both systems and the market for each period has changed, unless you think nothing changed  in the past 12 years.

and hey, what did ps2 get that ps3 didn't? nothing, then why did ps3 only sold half of what ps2 did so far?

let's see some differences: ps2 had a head start and big selling point as a dvd player ang gaming console that was cheaper than dvd players, leading to an almost monopoly in that gen gardware sales. now wii u is the one with a head start even if it wasn't used to the fullest. nintendo franchises have grown in popularity and it's audience has grown in number. third parties don't have the option to simply "skip" a platform anymore since they can no longer profit in one platform, like they did on ps2. heck, even two platforms make them struggle to profit now.

got the message?

I dunno, a lot of gamers can be very superficial. Wind Waker may be liked now, but at the time it alienated many gamers, and a Wii U toon Zelda would do the same I fear.

Yeah exactly. The Wii U has managed to undersell the Gamecube every month despite the other next-gen consoles not even being out yet.

And if the third parties don't have the option to skip a platform someone should tell them that. Right now they seem very comfortable with it.