About latency, I agree, video streaming can afford far higher ones, interactive distributed computing cannot, even less with soft real-time applications like gaming.

About fibre: I live in one of the 10 biggest towns in Italy, but my house is in a small, relatively low population density alley: 20 years ago public fibre infrastructure project ran out of funds when fibre had arrived 100m North and 100m South of my garden's gate, some years later the old unfinished infrastructure was took over by a company, but they never extend it in low density area like mine, I'm still with a quite rotten half-mile that can go up to 10-12Mbps (depending on weather, when it's wet, and Genoa is almost always wet, even when sunny, the old rotten copper suffers from more dispersion and speed is lower). In no way we'd ever make the works to extend that line by ourselves, municipal taxes for private citizens for public soil occupation are already high to occupy and dig up to 1m^2 for one day, beyond that area and that time they skyrocket.

retail ain't going away. Even highly digital mediums like music still have a music section in stores

Most games, even casual ones, are awkward on purely touchscreen. I have only TWO games installed on my smartphone (I downloaded a total of three since I bought it, but I uninstalled the first, it was totally unplayable), one is Drag Racing, and I stopped playing it because I got fed up of it, but it was the only one with a control scheme simple enough to work without any problems, the other I'm currently playing is Real Racing 3, and I can swear that while motion detection is great for steering, you can't use the other axes of rotation to control accelerator and brake, as that would ruin display's visibility, and touch control for braking alone is already awkward and worsen steering precision when turning, putting on manual also the accelerator isn't worth by any mean the additional effort, as it's only ON-OFF and on small screens it would make an even larger part of the screen unviewable, and what's worse, most of the time instead of only when braking. To sum it up, an arcade racer with great potential has its potential strongly limited by the controls available on smartphones, despite being a very arcade and casual game (with a car collection and tuning part that despite not as wide and detailed as in Drag Racing, is nevertheless good and addictive). Can't even imagine games needing even slightly more complex controls.

Nex Gen only in 2020.

Sony said that they will support PS4 for 10 years... lets look again in 2024.

10 years is the complete lifecycle, but it includes support after the next gen is launched. 9th gen consoles could be launched anywhere between 5 and 7 years from 8th gen, so between 2017 (Wii U launch + 5 years) and 2020 (PS4 and XBOne launch + 7 years).
I won't bet on it, but if I were forced to bet, I'd say 2018-2019 or, better, 2019-2020, as I can see again one rushing its launch and the others not wanting to launch immediately, but neither wanting to concede more than 11 months head start to the first.
And even in 2020 fibre wont' be widespread enough, digital only would mean giving up any hope to get a share of new markets. It's just that Blu-Ray, maybe with more layers, will simply be THE LAST optical disc standard, after it development of portable storage, besides HDDs, if they'll still be viable, will continue on flash memories, like now, and holographic memories and Heaven knows what else, but not discs due to their inherent latency, that won't improve very much, due to spin speed limits, and that hence will become more and more a hindrance compared to growing transfer speeds of the discs themselves and even worse compared to latency of other techs.

There is s till a chance HVD will make it, at least for storage options. http://www.techtwick.com/holographic-versatile-disc-hvd/ 3.9tb writeable discs will still be cheaper then flash memory cards by the time the tech is ready. 1gbps transfer rate is not bad either. SDXC 128gb is $400 atm, I found a 256gb one for 460 pounds, 5gb of writeable BD-RE discs costs $10. Quite a ways to go.

4k 4/6/8 layer blu-ray will come first, but if super hi-vision or 8K gains traction in 20 years, pressing discs is probably still cheaper for collectors then flash cards.

It doesn't matter to me if it's on a card or on a disc, as long as I can still collect it. Even if we finally get fibre here, and the streaming experience is like for like with all extras and sound/language options included, I would still like to browse my own shelves, read the extras of the back or the booklet inside, instead of browing menus on a screen.

doubtful. the industry, nore fans will be ready.

I agree about the collecting value, whatever the tech, owning an original support will give all those emotions and satisfactions
we already had since vinyl.

About HVD, interesting tech, and it will surely be a strong competitor for USB HDDs and flash drives and pen drives, but most probably it won't be as widespread as DVD and BD if it won't reach the mass production and low-cost stage of its lifecycle early enough.
BTW, being a disc (and not a sealed and very well balanced one as in a HDD), it will suffer too from tens to hundreds millisecond-range latency, that will look, compared to its even faster transfer rate, even worse than previous disc techs, so, yes for storage, but exactly the same limits as current optical discs, very good to store and stream huge amounts of data, very bad for random access, so very bad for interactive and real-time. Anyway, the same pros and cons of BD, but with a capacity more than 100 times a single layer BD should be attractive enough for the same uses.

Sony said that they will support PS3 for 10 years. (2006 - 2013 = 10 I mean, 7 years)

Supporting a console has nothing to do with when it successor arrives and your math was wrong anyways... it would be holiday 2023.