10 years is the complete lifecycle, but it includes support after the next gen is launched. 9th gen consoles could be launched anywhere between 5 and 7 years from 8th gen, so between 2017 (Wii U launch + 5 years) and 2020 (PS4 and XBOne launch + 7 years).
I won't bet on it, but if I were forced to bet, I'd say 2018-2019 or, better, 2019-2020, as I can see again one rushing its launch and the others not wanting to launch immediately, but neither wanting to concede more than 11 months head start to the first.
And even in 2020 fibre wont' be widespread enough, digital only would mean giving up any hope to get a share of new markets. It's just that Blu-Ray, maybe with more layers, will simply be THE LAST optical disc standard, after it development of portable storage, besides HDDs, if they'll still be viable, will continue on flash memories, like now, and holographic memories and Heaven knows what else, but not discs due to their inherent latency, that won't improve very much, due to spin speed limits, and that hence will become more and more a hindrance compared to growing transfer speeds of the discs themselves and even worse compared to latency of other techs.
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