| Alby_da_Wolf said: 10 years is the complete lifecycle, but it includes support after the next gen is launched. 9th gen consoles could be launched anywhere between 5 and 7 years from 8th gen, so between 2017 (Wii U launch + 5 years) and 2020 (PS4 and XBOne launch + 7 years). I won't bet on it, but if I were forced to bet, I'd say 2018-2019 or, better, 2019-2020, as I can see again one rushing its launch and the others not wanting to launch immediately, but neither wanting to concede more than 11 months head start to the first. And even in 2020 fibre wont' be widespread enough, digital only would mean giving up any hope to get a share of new markets. It's just that Blu-Ray, maybe with more layers, will simply be THE LAST optical disc standard, after it development of portable storage, besides HDDs, if they'll still be viable, will continue on flash memories, like now, and holographic memories and Heaven knows what else, but not discs due to their inherent latency, that won't improve very much, due to spin speed limits, and that hence will become more and more a hindrance compared to growing transfer speeds of the discs themselves and even worse compared to latency of other techs. |
There is s till a chance HVD will make it, at least for storage options. http://www.techtwick.com/holographic-versatile-disc-hvd/ 3.9tb writeable discs will still be cheaper then flash memory cards by the time the tech is ready. 1gbps transfer rate is not bad either. SDXC 128gb is $400 atm, I found a 256gb one for 460 pounds, 5gb of writeable BD-RE discs costs $10. Quite a ways to go.
4k 4/6/8 layer blu-ray will come first, but if super hi-vision or 8K gains traction in 20 years, pressing discs is probably still cheaper for collectors then flash cards.
It doesn't matter to me if it's on a card or on a disc, as long as I can still collect it. Even if we finally get fibre here, and the streaming experience is like for like with all extras and sound/language options included, I would still like to browse my own shelves, read the extras of the back or the booklet inside, instead of browing menus on a screen.
