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Forums - Sony - Sony is about to win 2 generations in 1

HikenNoAce on 18 June 2013
catofellow said:

I think the PS3 passing the Wii is predicated on the PS3 eventually dropping to 150 and lower, which I am not convinced will ever happen. (Also, Nintendo needs to completely abandon Wii, which is very likely to happen.)   Sony and Microsoft seem very intent on keeping their consoles in the 200-300 dollar range, which is too expensive for a last gen console.

Its remarkable that the "cheap" XBOX 360 launched at 299.99, and it has only dropped by 100 in an 8 year span. I get that there were multiple bundles and you get a lot more now, but someone who just wants buy the console and take it home to play Madden may not care about WIFI, HDMI, larger flash storage etc.

Yes, it is predicated on a price drop but what makes you think it will never happen? They're intent on keeping their current systems at the current price point because they are selling well, especially the PS3. There is no competition that is forcing them to drop the price at the moment.



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aikohualda on 18 June 2013

only 22 million? 22 million is a huge number!
even if they sold 80 million in 6 years that is 13.33 million in year... and they will introduce its replacement! it is a loooooooooooooooooong stretch......esp microsoft is sharing almost identical market with sony....



 

aikohualda on 18 June 2013
Miguel_Zorro said:
aikohualda said:
only 22 million? 22 million is a huge number!
even if they sold 80 million in 6 years that is 13.33 million in year... and they will introduce its replacement! it is a loooooooooooooooooong stretch......esp microsoft is sharing almost identical market with sony....



The PS2 had 100 million units sold when the PS3 was released.  It went on to sell another 55 million

Even if you scale that down to PS3 numbers.  The PS3 is at 78 million units sold.  Another 50% on top of that is 39 million units, for a total of 117 million.  22 million on top of current numbers is only 28%.

It will happen. Last year I was the only one saying it.  Next year, by the time the PS3 hits 90 million, it will be the majority opinion.

it is the ps2... and most of those numbers came from uhm "rest of the world" sales.... ps3 didnt capture the "rest of the world" market like the ps2.... i think it will went downhill next year....



 

aikohualda on 18 June 2013
Miguel_Zorro said:
aikohualda said:

it is the ps2... and most of those numbers came from uhm "rest of the world" sales.... ps3 didnt capture the "rest of the world" market like the ps2.... i think it will went downhill next year....

For what it's worth, the PS3 % of sales from rest of world is very similar to that of the PS2. 

There will probably be a drop in PS3 sales, but I think the price will drop to $199 when the PS4 is released.  That's going to move units.

yeah and 360 will cut their price too for xbox (which is more popular in the US) (which is the biggest market) (which again cut their sales)

the thing is... you THINK they will outsold wii...

and i THINK they dont....

so we will just see...

honestly nintendo and sony dont care about these numbers.... all they care is $$$

even if sony sold 150m for ps3... nintendo will just be like "meh" we already generated enough money for wii......



 

Raze on 18 June 2013
HikenNoAce said:
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:

At the current rate of ~13M per fiscal year? I don't think it will take a LONG while.

Also, just because it takes a while does not mean that it will not pass the Wiis.

You're being overly generous with those numbers. The current gap between Wii and PS3 sales is approx 100k/week, or 400k/month. That correlates to 4.8 mil/year at the current pace, which we'll say holds mostly true through slumps and holidays alike. Let's even be generous and say the numbers are 7mil/fiscal year, which is FAR more logical. The current Wii lead is 22m, which would take over 3 years, given these logical numbers, to catch up to the Wii.

Both systems will fade away to dismal numbers within another year or 2. The PS3 will come close, but it won't surpass the Wii, unless they start handing them out for free.


Not at all. 16.5M PS3s + PS2s sold in FY2012. Also, 45% of PS3 sales occur in the last quarter so during the holiday season. In other words, it is foolish to consider the current weekly sales to be the same as the weekly average over a year.

I already took holiday sales into account with my numbers. I am talking about the GAP between Wii and PS3 sales, not the total sales. If the current ratio holds on as is, then the PS3 is expected to sell 100k more units than the Wii per week, roughly about. Just because there's a holiday, it doesn't mean only one console's numbers increase, every console's numbers increase. You aren't taking into account that the Wii is still selling too.The ratio is 5:1 in PS3's favor. So even if the PS3 sells 1m units next holiday, the Wii will be in the range of 200k, leaving the gap of 800k units recovered by the PS3, Tack that on to 4-6m units sold through the rest of the year for PS3 vs 1-2m  Wii's sold in the same timeframe, you're still looking at a yearly gap recovery of 7m units or so.

The gap between the two will be somewhat consistent for the remainder of this year at the very least (as the Wii is dirt cheap now, and few people are even aware the Wii U exists yet). Even without the Wii selling another unit, it'd still take close to 3 years for the PS3 to catch up.

The reality is, it'd take an act of God for the PS3 to outsell the Wii, LtD. The numbers are against the PS3, and numbers don't lie. I know you want to wave your Sony banner all high and mighty, but you're likely going to have to wait till next gen to hoist it again, as the PS4 doesn't really have much competition at all.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com 


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HikenNoAce on 19 June 2013
aikohualda said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
aikohualda said:
only 22 million? 22 million is a huge number!
even if they sold 80 million in 6 years that is 13.33 million in year... and they will introduce its replacement! it is a loooooooooooooooooong stretch......esp microsoft is sharing almost identical market with sony....



The PS2 had 100 million units sold when the PS3 was released.  It went on to sell another 55 million

Even if you scale that down to PS3 numbers.  The PS3 is at 78 million units sold.  Another 50% on top of that is 39 million units, for a total of 117 million.  22 million on top of current numbers is only 28%.

It will happen. Last year I was the only one saying it.  Next year, by the time the PS3 hits 90 million, it will be the majority opinion.

it is the ps2... and most of those numbers came from uhm "rest of the world" sales.... ps3 didnt capture the "rest of the world" market like the ps2.... i think it will went downhill next year....


For the very simple reason that is is so expensive. Once the price is $149 or below, the "rest of the world" will bite. People in the US have no idea how big the PS brand is worldwide.



HikenNoAce on 19 June 2013
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:

Not at all. 16.5M PS3s + PS2s sold in FY2012. Also, 45% of PS3 sales occur in the last quarter so during the holiday season. In other words, it is foolish to consider the current weekly sales to be the same as the weekly average over a year.

I already took holiday sales into account with my numbers. I am talking about the GAP between Wii and PS3 sales, not the total sales. If the current ratio holds on as is, then the PS3 is expected to sell 100k more units than the Wii per week, roughly about. Just because there's a holiday, it doesn't mean only one console's numbers increase, every console's numbers increase. You aren't taking into account that the Wii is still selling too.The ratio is 5:1 in PS3's favor. So even if the PS3 sells 1m units next holiday, the Wii will be in the range of 200k, leaving the gap of 800k units recovered by the PS3, Tack that on to 4-6m units sold through the rest of the year for PS3 vs 1-2m  Wii's sold in the same timeframe, you're still looking at a yearly gap recovery of 7m units or so.

The gap between the two will be somewhat consistent for the remainder of this year at the very least (as the Wii is dirt cheap now, and few people are even aware the Wii U exists yet). Even without the Wii selling another unit, it'd still take close to 3 years for the PS3 to catch up.

The reality is, it'd take an act of God for the PS3 to outsell the Wii, LtD. The numbers are against the PS3, and numbers don't lie. I know you want to wave your Sony banner all high and mighty, but you're likely going to have to wait till next gen to hoist it again, as the PS4 doesn't really have much competition at all.


Well, check your maths again. Over the last fiscal year, the PS3 reduced the gap at the rate of 220,000 per week.



Raze on 19 June 2013
HikenNoAce said:
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:

Not at all. 16.5M PS3s + PS2s sold in FY2012. Also, 45% of PS3 sales occur in the last quarter so during the holiday season. In other words, it is foolish to consider the current weekly sales to be the same as the weekly average over a year.

I already took holiday sales into account with my numbers. I am talking about the GAP between Wii and PS3 sales, not the total sales. If the current ratio holds on as is, then the PS3 is expected to sell 100k more units than the Wii per week, roughly about. Just because there's a holiday, it doesn't mean only one console's numbers increase, every console's numbers increase. You aren't taking into account that the Wii is still selling too.The ratio is 5:1 in PS3's favor. So even if the PS3 sells 1m units next holiday, the Wii will be in the range of 200k, leaving the gap of 800k units recovered by the PS3, Tack that on to 4-6m units sold through the rest of the year for PS3 vs 1-2m  Wii's sold in the same timeframe, you're still looking at a yearly gap recovery of 7m units or so.

The gap between the two will be somewhat consistent for the remainder of this year at the very least (as the Wii is dirt cheap now, and few people are even aware the Wii U exists yet). Even without the Wii selling another unit, it'd still take close to 3 years for the PS3 to catch up.

The reality is, it'd take an act of God for the PS3 to outsell the Wii, LtD. The numbers are against the PS3, and numbers don't lie. I know you want to wave your Sony banner all high and mighty, but you're likely going to have to wait till next gen to hoist it again, as the PS4 doesn't really have much competition at all.


Well, check your maths again. Over the last fiscal year, the PS3 reduced the gap at the rate of 220,000 per week.

The price of gas used to be $1.50/gallon too. There's no point living in the past. Numbers dwindle over time.  The current numbers for 2013 show the PS3 selling at the rate I mentioned prior. Nothing at this stage is going to make the PS3 (or any other console) outperform previous years, short of a MAJOR price slash, and I'm talking like $125 PS3s, which won't happen.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com 


HikenNoAce on 19 June 2013
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:

Not at all. 16.5M PS3s + PS2s sold in FY2012. Also, 45% of PS3 sales occur in the last quarter so during the holiday season. In other words, it is foolish to consider the current weekly sales to be the same as the weekly average over a year.

I already took holiday sales into account with my numbers. I am talking about the GAP between Wii and PS3 sales, not the total sales. If the current ratio holds on as is, then the PS3 is expected to sell 100k more units than the Wii per week, roughly about. Just because there's a holiday, it doesn't mean only one console's numbers increase, every console's numbers increase. You aren't taking into account that the Wii is still selling too.The ratio is 5:1 in PS3's favor. So even if the PS3 sells 1m units next holiday, the Wii will be in the range of 200k, leaving the gap of 800k units recovered by the PS3, Tack that on to 4-6m units sold through the rest of the year for PS3 vs 1-2m  Wii's sold in the same timeframe, you're still looking at a yearly gap recovery of 7m units or so.

The gap between the two will be somewhat consistent for the remainder of this year at the very least (as the Wii is dirt cheap now, and few people are even aware the Wii U exists yet). Even without the Wii selling another unit, it'd still take close to 3 years for the PS3 to catch up.

The reality is, it'd take an act of God for the PS3 to outsell the Wii, LtD. The numbers are against the PS3, and numbers don't lie. I know you want to wave your Sony banner all high and mighty, but you're likely going to have to wait till next gen to hoist it again, as the PS4 doesn't really have much competition at all.


Well, check your maths again. Over the last fiscal year, the PS3 reduced the gap at the rate of 220,000 per week.

The price of gas used to be $1.50/gallon too. There's no point living in the past. Numbers dwindle over time.  The current numbers for 2013 show the PS3 selling at the rate I mentioned prior. Nothing at this stage is going to make the PS3 (or any other console) outperform previous years, short of a MAJOR price slash, and I'm talking like $125 PS3s, which won't happen.


And once again, you ignore that 45% of PS3 sales occur during the holiday season. Good job, dude.

Also, what makes you think that the price will never drop that low?



Raze on 20 June 2013
HikenNoAce said:
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:
Raze said:
HikenNoAce said:

Not at all. 16.5M PS3s + PS2s sold in FY2012. Also, 45% of PS3 sales occur in the last quarter so during the holiday season. In other words, it is foolish to consider the current weekly sales to be the same as the weekly average over a year.

I already took holiday sales into account with my numbers. I am talking about the GAP between Wii and PS3 sales, not the total sales. If the current ratio holds on as is, then the PS3 is expected to sell 100k more units than the Wii per week, roughly about. Just because there's a holiday, it doesn't mean only one console's numbers increase, every console's numbers increase. You aren't taking into account that the Wii is still selling too.The ratio is 5:1 in PS3's favor. So even if the PS3 sells 1m units next holiday, the Wii will be in the range of 200k, leaving the gap of 800k units recovered by the PS3, Tack that on to 4-6m units sold through the rest of the year for PS3 vs 1-2m  Wii's sold in the same timeframe, you're still looking at a yearly gap recovery of 7m units or so.

The gap between the two will be somewhat consistent for the remainder of this year at the very least (as the Wii is dirt cheap now, and few people are even aware the Wii U exists yet). Even without the Wii selling another unit, it'd still take close to 3 years for the PS3 to catch up.

The reality is, it'd take an act of God for the PS3 to outsell the Wii, LtD. The numbers are against the PS3, and numbers don't lie. I know you want to wave your Sony banner all high and mighty, but you're likely going to have to wait till next gen to hoist it again, as the PS4 doesn't really have much competition at all.


Well, check your maths again. Over the last fiscal year, the PS3 reduced the gap at the rate of 220,000 per week.

The price of gas used to be $1.50/gallon too. There's no point living in the past. Numbers dwindle over time.  The current numbers for 2013 show the PS3 selling at the rate I mentioned prior. Nothing at this stage is going to make the PS3 (or any other console) outperform previous years, short of a MAJOR price slash, and I'm talking like $125 PS3s, which won't happen.


And once again, you ignore that 45% of PS3 sales occur during the holiday season. Good job, dude.

Also, what makes you think that the price will never drop that low?

And once again, you ignore that the numbers I stated INCLUDE the increase during the holidays, even though I've already stated that twice.

Why won't the price drop that low? Simply because of the lack of profit for Sony in doing such. At this stage of the game, they're pushing efforts on the PS4, their upcoming flagship. Surpassing the Wii doesn't come with a money bonus, so they're not going to take a further financial hit just to boost their numbers. Come E3 2014, the Wii/PS3/360 gen will slow down to a point that will barely register in LTD sales/market share. It's merely the reality of the way the industry works. Games will come out for them still, but the sales will be nominal, at best.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com