I read an article the other day, saying that AMD was making $60 - $80 for each chip inside of Next Gen consoles.
The PS3 has 7850 performance level($170 for consumers) and don't forget that it's an APU so the CPU and the GPU are one, meaning they're paying around $80 for the CPU+GPU.
The 8GB of RAM once discounted I'm guessing is at around another $80 or $100 at most. Card makers can afford to pump out cheat GDDR5 cards nowadays, just not in the quantity of 8GB's on one chip, but after discounts this seems plausible.
The Motherboard should add on around another $40 or so, then the Hard Drive is another $50, and then the dualshock should be around $15, and then the actual case should be around $10 - $15 and then the actual manufacturing process should only cost around $30 per console.
80+80+40+50+15+15+30 = $310 in material costs is my estimate. Sony will then prolly give it to retailers for $280 per console, and then retailers will make the mark up to $350, so I'd be willing to bet Sony would be taking a $30 loss on every console, which isn't significant and actually pretty good for a console at launch.
Seeing as how most launch games will be internally developed, Sony would be making around $48 on every launch game sold, so they'd make their money back pretty quickly. ($48 goes to Sony and the other $12 goes to the retailer, but in reality Sony will actually pocket around $38 per copy sold with $10 per copy going towards the developers next project.)
As for Microsoft, I'm pricing their APU at $60. Their RAM at $40. Their ESDRAM at $10, their Hard drive at $50, their motherboard at $40, their case at $10-15, their controller at $15, and Kinect 2.0 as a whole at $80 and then to actually produce the console at $30 per console.
MIcrosoft said the original Kinect takes $56 to make, the new Kinect I assume will have it's own processor, much more advanced tech, and a 1080P camera, I assume they made the original Kinect cheaper to manufacture, that's why I'm going with a generous price of Kinect 2 ONLY costing $80, in reality it could range from $80 - $120. No way in HELL the Xbox's one production cost is that low with Kinect included.
60+40+10+50+40+15+15+80+30 = $340.
I see Microsoft giving it to retailers at $360 per unit, and they'll mark it up to $400, making the Xbox One instantly profitable. I see them having a more expensive console because of how ambitious the console itself is, and how arrogant they are.