Well then you still have 5 Forzas, which is still more than 3 main series GT games. Yea Forza 5 is going to be 1080p, there is no question about it. I never said 1080p and 60 fps had anything to do with polygon counts? Im not really a GT fan, I like all racing games, I never once put Forza down in a bad way, I never said the graphics of Forza were bad, I just sad I like the other style better. Driveclub looks to be better than both honestly, then you have the upcoming Project Cars which looks pretty good too. 

Even casuals go to Gamestop and best buy and buy used games.

I think a lot of gamers liked the Sony conference because the company stressed that they would be focusing on games.  Despite not showing off many game reveals (because they're likely waiting for E3 as well), whether they were talking about working with other developers to help create a console that would make it easier for companies to develop content, or how they would improve their gamepad, or how they felt that sharing would become an integral part of gaming (via uploading gameplay videos, chatting with other gamers, etc.), Sony was always talking about gaming, and that focus is what I think a lot of gamers like to hear.

In contrast, it is clear from their conference that Microsoft would be having a broader focus on entertainment, rather than just gaming.  While I'm personally not against that approach, I think that it is easy to see why their performance didn't resonate as well with gamers, particularly with the fans that were hoping that Microsoft's next hardware would still be a gaming console first (although let's face it, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time now).  I also think a lot of fans were hoping that Microsoft would finally squash the rumors about always being online and blocking used games, but unfortunately we still don't have a clear answer regarding these issues.

With that being said, I'm fairly certain that Microsoft is going to try and reach out to gamers during E3.  Regardless, I'm very interested in seeing if consumers prefer a traditional gaming console or an entertainment one.  I'm going to need a lot of popcorn later this year.

True, but I don't see them playing regularly enough to care about not being able to play their games at their friends' houses.

Also, they would likely be the type to also get their content directly online if that's what was offered to them and not need/require a physical copy. Examples of this type of content are streaming videos and other types of consumable media.

Good analysis.

Its going to be interesting to see how the mass market reacts to the two different strategies over the next 12 - 14 months.

No you are not the only one :)

Thats exactly it. One time is enough to piss off casuals because their dedication to gaming is loose, so if you put up the pay wall you increase the complication and create lack of easy which will anger them. They could do that, but even casuals know about Gamestop. Gamestop like a 8-9 billion a year in revenue companie.

Interesting point, but I think the issue is that you're putting dedicated gamer frustrations into the minds of casual gamers, which likely have not those same concerns, and then putting a casual gamer restriction in the logic (they can be turned off in a heartbeat). You must use casual gamer considerations if using casual gamer rules. Imho I believe that this will be a non-issue for them and they will take what they're provided without asking too many questions. They're not as aware as dedicated gamers are as to what a platform should offer, if you know what I mean.

I think the main problem with going for the expanded market, will be the sheer cost.

This machine wont cost less than $400. Then you have your Yearly Xbox Live Subscription. What helped make the Wii such a success was that the console itself was cheap. $250 for a console that does something youve never done before. A console that does something new. A console that anyone can get into and play.

The Xbox One is going to hit the price wall of these gamers. Its gonna be especially tough if Nintendo get out the big franchises - Wii Sports, Wii Fit and Mario Kart out for the Holidays... And hit a pricecut on the system too.

Its interesting you say lack of awareness because where I live the used game section of Best Buy is getting noticed big time. Its a store casuals shop in and quite a few buy their Kinect games there as I've seen as they are instructed when they approach a helper. When they buy a game in the new gen how high do you think their patience will last for the extra fees just to play their games?