The one on 3DS is probably a better comparison than Wii U, it opened at 58k and ended around 280k.

I think your prediction could be close though. The 3DS entry had a good install base to sell to but was a mediocre game. The Wii U entry was a good game but had a low install base to sell to.

The Switch entry looks like it will be good and has a large install base to sell to show it could do as well as the 3DS+Wii U entries combined.

That seems to be the pattern for Switch, selling more than what the equivalent WiiU and 3DS games did combined. Zelda's best-selling and first 3DS game and Wii U game, OOT3D and WWHD, add up to 7.9 million, BotW crushes that at 10.28 million. Odyssey is already at 3D Land's lifetime sales, so only has 5.8 million more to go to beat it and 3D World combined. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is harder to tell, but it's tracking about even with where Mario Kart 7 and 8 are combined, and is tracking ahead of even DS. Super Mario Party has already outsold MP: Island Tour and MP10 combined. Smash Ultimate has nearly passed Smash 3DS in a month and almost no one doubts it'll beat 3DS+WiiU combined anymore. Kirby Star Allies is already at Robobot+Rainbow Curse, and will probably reach Triple Deluxe+Rainbow Curse lifetime. Even Xenoblade Chronicles 2 beats XBC3DS and XBCX combined and Mario Tennis Aces beats MT: Open and MT: Ultra Smash combined. Of course, this is based on worldwide numbers, and some series did better or worse in Japan, but it's certainly a promising trend for Yoshi.

That said, I'm curious, where are you getting your numbers? VGChartz no longer has them for Japan.