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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

Another beast day. It's on fire.



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Teeqoz said:
1.5-2 million for MHW in Japan alone would be pretty incredible.

It's certainly way higher than people expected when it was first announced. I know that it's not great when compared to the PSP/3DS mainline entries, but it was always going to lose that battle. Will have to see how global its impact is.



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Monster Hunter will do fine in Japan, compared or not compared to PSP/3DS.

It's his west performance that are more interesting imo. Personally, when all is said and done i can see Monster Hunter World to sell around 4 million worldwide.



sc94597 said:
ZODIARKrebirth said:
seems finishing at 1500 points for monster hunter seems possible, let's see

Yes if you do a rough regression of the sales data and COMG results from this point to the last day of 3DS monster hunter games (MH4,MH4U,MHX,MHXX), and plug MHW's current results in for a rough extrapolation, you get ~ 1508 points on last day of preorders, 1.01 million first week sales, and 1.81 million lifetime sales. Of course since N= 4  the error-bars are pretty big for each data point. 

I do think 1500 points is a solid bet, with maybe an uncertainty of +/- 50 points. 

MHW will likely sell more than XX, but less than the rest of the 3DS MH titles in Japan. That's impressive enough, but maybe not what Capcom is hoping for if Western sales don't meet expectations and considering the development costs of this game versus previous monster hunter titles. It's a risk on their part, but the Japanese sales are looking to be pretty good all things considered. 



how the game will do in america and europe it's very hard to say, but did capcom mentioned how much sales they expect from mh worldwide?



Damn Monster Hunter just can't catch break! This game is seriously on fire!



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ZODIARKrebirth said:

how the game will do in america and europe it's very hard to say, but did capcom mentioned how much sales they expect from mh worldwide?

They haven't said specifically what their expectations are, but they've been hinting at them being high. They seem to want Monster Hunter to be mainstream and popular in the West, like the rest of their games have become. Meaning they want the game to be a many multiple million seller in the West. 

Many people were first hypothesizing that Capcom wanted to start micro-transacting the game, but that was discredited in December. Which means that in order to accommodate for the opportunity cost of not making the game on a handheld, and the extra  explicit costs of developing the game on multiple platforms, as well as the significant improvements of asset work they must make more than they  think they'd make on Switch or 3DS, where they'd have amazing Japanese sales and okay Western sales at a lower explicit cost. Which means they want decent Japanese sales + great Western sales at a minimum, I am thinking. Also Capcom seems to be spending considerably on marketing and advertising on this title, versus previous Monster Hunter games. 

I'd assume that the total sales will have to approximate something like MH4U's, 3.95 million worldwide + across all platforms, more or less depending on what proportion of sales are digital (and therefore more profitable.) 

MHW probably will best MH4U's Western + others sales (1.32 million), but by how much is the first question, and will the profits be higher with respect to the opportunity of pursuing an alternative development path for any successor titles. 

One also must ask how tolerant console gamers will be with buying re-releases (the G-rank titles, etc) vs. preferring to purchase paid DLC and the respective profits of one path over the other. Paid DLC might not make as much profit per sale, but might sell more with console gamers. Reusing assets and game scenarios, and reselling the game has been one of the reasons why Monster Hunter titles are so incredibly profitable with their sales. 

Basically Capcom (as a publisher) is disrupting their tested model with the franchise, and it is hard to gauge their expectations and goals. 

Nevertheless ~2 million sales in Japan (if it happens, as seems likely) means the game isn't going to outright bomb or take a loss, but all publishers are questioning how they can maximize profits, not just break even. With Capcom Monster Hunter is their most profitable franchise, so it does seem risky, but it might pay off too. Companies must take risks now and then. 



Ryng_Tolu said:

Monster Hunter will do fine in Japan, compared or not compared to PSP/3DS.

It's his west performance that are more interesting imo. Personally, when all is said and done i can see Monster Hunter World to sell around 4 million worldwide.

4m sounds almost impossible. Maybe on PS4 alone but with XBO and PC sales (especially PC) I don't see it below 5m.

Last edited by Boutros - on 14 January 2018

Boutros said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Monster Hunter will do fine in Japan, compared or not compared to PSP/3DS.

It's his west performance that are more interesting imo. Personally, when all is said and done i can see Monster Hunter World to sell around 4 million worldwide.

4m sounds almost impossible. Maybe on PS4 alone but with XBO and PC sales (especially PC) I don't see it below 5m.

lol i was talking about japan so much i almost forgot PC and XB1

Yeah, i mean 4 million on PS4... i really don't know about the rest tho, i guess it could be big on PC maybe? but i think it will bomb on XB1 imo.



Ryng_Tolu said:
Boutros said:

4m sounds almost impossible. Maybe on PS4 alone but with XBO and PC sales (especially PC) I don't see it below 5m.

lol i was talking about japan so much i almost forgot PC and XB1

Yeah, i mean 4 million on PS4... i really don't know about the rest tho, i guess it could be big on PC maybe? but i think it will bomb on XB1 imo.

Yeah I don't have high expectations for the XBO version (like 500k?) but PC sales could do 1m+ fairly easily. I mean if Dragon's Dogma can.



Boutros said:

but PC sales could do 1m+ fairly easily. I

With the game releasing in Fall, and with heavy competition in the multiplayer gaming space on PC, I am not sure about "fairly easily" but it is possible. 

I'm predicting something more modest, like 500k-700k for PC and 300k-400k for XBO. Monster Hunter is still pretty niche in the West, and whether or not it leaves that niche depends very much on how successful Capcom's advertising campaign has been. 

Most of the people interested will probably get it on PS4.