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Forums - Politics - Popular Conservative Austerity argument Debunked?

If you don't manipulate the interest rates, the market takes care of it. It's just so incredibly stupid that we have to even have to have this argument. If people believe you can pay it back they will borrow to you, if you don't think you can then they won't. If debt levels go up then interest rates go up, and if people borrow you when you can't afford it then those investors take the loss. That should be basic economics, but every country is the world is manipulating their interest rates and many countries have already found themselves in a debt trap with no way out. Just watch now as the real wealth gravitates from the west to the east.



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Well, I have even problems measuring growth in money. That is a problem that lies in the root of it.
scenario 1: If prices drop people can spend their money on more things. The wealth is increasing - but as the same amount of money is spended, the GDP stays the same.
scenario 2: If prices stay the same, but people start to save more money, the GDP decreases, although people don't have the impression the personal wealth is decreasing.
scenario 3: If prices stay the same, but people take credits to spend more money, the GDP increases, although people while having more stuff are in debt now.
scenario 4: If prices increase, people buy less stuff with the same money. As the money that is spended stays the same, the GDP stays the same, but people have less wealth.
Also take into account, that if you recalculate GDP by converting into another currency, the picture may change depending on current exchange rates.
We need some other index to talk about general wealth in population and the state of economy. GDP is often enough misleading.



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Mnementh said:
Well, I have even problems measuring growth in money. That is a problem that lies in the root of it.
scenario 1: If prices drop people can spend their money on more things. The wealth is increasing - but as the same amount of money is spended, the GDP stays the same.
scenario 2: If prices stay the same, but people start to save more money, the GDP decreases, although people don't have the impression the personal wealth is decreasing.
scenario 3: If prices stay the same, but people take credits to spend more money, the GDP increases, although people while having more stuff are in debt now.
scenario 4: If prices increase, people buy less stuff with the same money. As the money that is spended stays the same, the GDP stays the same, but people have less wealth.
Also take into account, that if you recalculate GDP by converting into another currency, the picture may change depending on current exchange rates.
We need some other index to talk about general wealth in population and the state of economy. GDP is often enough misleading.

Household Net Worth per capita would probably be a pretty good indicator.  Or just total Net Worth if you want a big number.

Then it accounts for savings, debt, government debt, government benefits and new earnings.  Increases in technology, loss of value of assets etc.



Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
We need to update our infrastructure more than anything. We still use sewers from the Victorian ages for example and there are still many post-industrial scars that need to be rebranded and reused for something (its depressing seeing so many empty buildings in some areas!). Thank god we got the olympics which put some money in East London. and we also must re-diversify our economy, relying on mostly services can't be good. 

 

Upgrading the sewers is fine and all... that's not going to help the economy though.  Hell you'll probably lose jobs since i'm guessing those kind of sewers run better.

As for fixing post industrial scars... that's exactly what austerity plans are suppoesd to include.   Pro buisness reforms to attract buisness.

Since Austerity is  a lot like cutting costs at a faiing resteraunt.   All it does is buy you more time.

 

If we were looking at it through John Maynard Keynes perspective... Stimulus spending probably actually wouldn't be his first suggestion.   He'd likely find it a waste of money currently.  Why?  The United Kingdoms HUGE trade imbalance.   He would find it illogical to spend stimulus money when a lot of it would end up overseas and would first suggest trying to eliminate the trade balance.   He'd probably want to cut ties with the Euro.  He was for the Bancour, but that was back when the rich countries were the ones with the trade surpluses.

Afterall, how does a demand driven muliplier work, when the majority of the money we buy go back to foreign manufacturers and producers?    You go out an buy a bunch of Nintendo games with your stimulus money, and the majority of your money is going straight to Japan.

What would Keynes want... the government to spend... to give the rich incentives to invest in the USA and UK.

I'd suggest the Economic Consquences of Peace if you have time.  It's free because the publishing rights have expired.  (Oops, in the US.  You may want to check United Kingdom Copyright law before reading)

http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15776

It'd likely give you a fuller understanding of Keynes.  

The sewers was probably just a bad example but they are very old. Stuff like High Speed Rail would probably be more beneficial to the economy.

But the problem is, how can we follow Keynes theory when we wasted all our money from the good times of 1992-2007? It's an interesting topic but very complicated. 

But from what you're saying, each economy needs some amount of manufacturing to succedd, which could be why Germany is one of the least affected in the Eurozone. 

But i'll read the book when i have time 



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Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
dsgrue3 said:
Pemalite said:
Kasz216 said:

I'd point out that the UK's GDP gro
Even if you think the debt spending is making the difference... why kill yourself for 2%, building up a future huge disaster?  When you could have 1% and have a safer future?

Espiecally if nearly all that 1% is a boost soley due to government spending!


I wouldn't say *everywhere* Australia avoided recession during the global economic collapse and has maintained growth through the whole ordeal.

Sure?

Certainly looks like it dipped into a recession at a couple points.

Furthermore, any growth <2% is considered poor, let alone <1% which is anemic.

At least they are growing, we in the UK are amazed at .3% growth. How pathetic!! Sadly, it's the same across much of Europe too. We are just so screwed. Australia must at least maintain what it's got.

This graph is the UK's poor economy

 


Yeah... and a lot of Australia's growth in the past 20 years has been a huge commodities boost of raw matierials.

While the UK's GDP Growth has mostly all been in it's banking sector.   

The UK is honestly... doing strikingly well when you consider the main driver of their growth has been the same area that had a huge collapse.

It's not like you guys have huge swarths of untapped land and resources or even a lot of real estate. 

We need to update our infrastructure more than anything. We still use sewers from the Victorian ages for example and there are still many post-industrial scars that need to be rebranded and reused for something (its depressing seeing so many empty buildings in some areas!). Thank god we got the olympics which put some money in East London. and we also must re-diversify our economy, relying on mostly services can't be good. 

Upgrading the sewers is fine and all... that's not going to help the economy though.  Hell you'll probably lose jobs since i'm guessing those kind of sewers run better.

As for fixing post industrial scars... that's exactly what austerity plans are suppoesd to include.   Pro buisness reforms to attract buisness.

Since Austerity is  a lot like cutting costs at a faiing resteraunt.   All it does is buy you more time.

 

If we were looking at it through John Maynard Keynes perspective... Stimulus spending probably actually wouldn't be his first suggestion.   He'd likely find it a waste of money currently.  Why?  The United Kingdoms HUGE trade imbalance.   He would find it illogical to spend stimulus money when a lot of it would end up overseas and would first suggest trying to eliminate the trade balance.   He'd probably want to cut ties with the Euro.  He was for the Bancour, but that was back when the rich countries were the ones with the trade surpluses.

Afterall, how does a demand driven muliplier work, when the majority of the money we buy go back to foreign manufacturers and producers?    You go out an buy a bunch of Nintendo games with your stimulus money, and the majority of your money is going straight to Japan.

What would Keynes want... the government to spend... to give the rich incentives to invest in the USA and UK.

I'd suggest the Economic Consquences of Peace if you have time.  It's free because the publishing rights have expired.  (Oops, in the US.  You may want to check United Kingdom Copyright law before reading)

http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15776

It'd likely give you a fuller understanding of Keynes.  

Well, not straight to Japan. International trade is not quite so seamless as that, such that demand in one market necessarily produces jobs in that market even if the demand were 100% for foreign made goods. Enough of a boost and NoA would have to hire people, or more Gamestop branches open and they hire more associates

Not that video games are entirely a product where increased demand creates more jobs, though. That's one of the real problems of demand-based economics: it was devised some 60 years before the information age, whereby content generation doesn't have to match the scale of demand, and only delivery networks have to expand. Unlike, say, GM, who rapidly reaches a bottleneck of how many cars they can sell should there be a surge in demand that they don't have enough factories or workers for.

There's still much to be said for demand economics (moreso than the giant tax-evasion scam that is supply-side economics, anyway), but the math complicates dramatically as the notion of "product" becomes more dynamic.



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PDF said:

thranx said:

  I am open to examples of countries that managed to spend their way to success, but I cant think of any. 


China didn't do to bad.  http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/chinas-economic-recovery-a-tribute-to-keynes


I will not lie, I dont know much about the Chinese economy. But I did not think they entered a recession when the rest of the world did. China is also unique in that it is growing and modernizing so fast. I will have to look more into their stimulus and see exactly what they did and how they look now. thanks for the info. Most other major econmies in the world have already gone through this phase, so I dont know how well it will compare.



PDF said:

thranx said:

  I am open to examples of countries that managed to spend their way to success, but I cant think of any. 


China didn't do to bad.  http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/chinas-economic-recovery-a-tribute-to-keynes

Only because their economy is more closed, and because there is a LOT of price-fixing and general unnecessary real-estate development going on.

Chinese still rapidly move from the country to the city, but the growth of cities is even more rapid. Much of it just seems to be building for the sake of building, similar to the Japanese (although that is truly in the spirit of Keynes, the proposed government paying people to dig ditches and then fill them back up)



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There is no austerity in the UK as spending and borrowing more than ever before is not austerity.



In the UK our Chancellor ' George Osbourne' isn't being honest about austerity. He is not as concerned about growth or employment rather he want's to reduce the deficit whether it takes 5 years, 10 years, 20 years even. Issue is such measures will mean a stagnant or a recession hit economy for years to come in order to get the debt under control and furthermore the welfare state would balloon in size as more unemployment increases benefits paid out which would slow down the the time it takes to pay off the debt. Most individuals and businesses don't want to live in a depressed economy for that long, they would rather the Government tries to spend it's way out of the crisis which in turn would mean more tax is collected and less benefit paid due to higher employment BUT once again you are back to a large state capitalist based economy where many businesses rely on Government spending to keep the money rolling in. There's no real issue with that until until you realise for years the Government or opposition bribes the electorate with promises of large scale spending to keep unemployment low and business happy by borrowing money to pay back years later not by the electorate it's bribing but by taxing the future generation.

It's a cycle that works when everything is going right but comes tumbling down when something like the financial crisis happens as suddenly the banks who were lending them money needed to be rescued and investors who could lend the money charged higher interest rates to do so meaning the Government will have to charge the future generations a higher rate of tax to pay it off unless they suddenly discover a trillion barrels of oil in the River Thames.

The other issue with austerity is there are countries out there like India, China and Brazil to name just a few who are growing at a rate of 5-8% while the austerity driven Eurozone are lucky to get 1%. At that rate if austerity economics goes the distance it won't be long before a monumental shift in economic, political and even military power shifts to other parts of the world. I mean it's already taking place to a certain degree but it's been accelerated. However should austerity go the distance and debt is finally brought under control, it could pay off not soon but many decades down the line (you and I will be nearing retirement, retired or dead) as Europe has a very strong economic, intellectual and high technology foundation that could be put to real good use if the political will is there.

EDIT- There is one way Europeans can spend their way out of trouble but it will mean taking on the (current majority) Chinese work ethic i.e 6-7 days of work a week, lower pay, more hours, saving for a rainy day, buying a house with a 40% deposit, less labour rights etc etc....and that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.



why are ppl defending debt in this thread?

keynes is why we have inflation, paul krugman is PR for the LENDERS, colbert is a paid actor, and few of you are economists.

Could you or I survive on debt? no.