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Forums - Politics - Popular Conservative Austerity argument Debunked?

Kasz216 said:

I'd point out that the UK's GDP growth predictions... even lowered actually aren't that far off the US.

EVERYWHERE regardless of strategy seems to be stuck at ~1-2% GDP growth.

Even if you think the debt spending is making the difference... why kill yourself for 2%, building up a future huge disaster?  When you could have 1% and have a safer future?

Espiecally if nearly all that 1% is a boost soley due to government spending!


I wouldn't say *everywhere* Australia avoided recession during the global economic collapse and has maintained growth through the whole ordeal.




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Tigerlure said:
thranx said:
Things in the US still have not recovered. High unemployment. High underemployment. Beginning a new housing bubble. The education bubble will have to burst sometime. Dont see how you can say we have spent ourselves into the good times when we haven't, and we still have to pay it all back. Also dont know how you can say that austerity has failed when we aren't through the mess yet. I say its too early to call right now. Why dont we wait until we are actually paying of our debt, have a good unemployment % and underemployment is a thing of the past before we declare a winner.


They've been trying that in Europe for a few years. Where has it gotten them? Some of the countries are almost entering a recession again. Maybe a few years isn't enough time, but it certainly hasn't convinced me that austerity is helpful when you're already in a weak economy.


How about 20 years?  That's about how long Japan has been trying stimulus mesures in an attempt to kickstart GDP.  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220703-japan-s-economy-shows-limits-of-keynesian-policies

Japan's been trying to spend there way out of trouble forever now.  Once their population gets a little older and there aren't enough conservative minded investors to buy government bonds... Japan will be facing a nigh inevitable crash of gigantic proportions.

 

The truth is... when your in a bad situation.  You CAN't get out of it.  Either by Spending or Austerity.

The biggest arrogance we have is that we can fix EVERYTHING.

We really can't.

The main difference is... spending can hide the numbers on the fundamentals.  Though the poor are still going to feel the burn.  Ask any of my customers where I work where the US Recovery is... they'll say it's nowhere



to call it a winner i wouldn't want to articles about growth not being as expected, and the us still possibly facing a recession/depression as we stop spending oney to prop things up.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100678290

" Gross domestic product expanded at 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled at 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase, however, missed economists' expectations for a 3.0 percent growth pace.

Part of the acceleration in activity reflected farmers' filling up silos after a drought last summer decimated crop output. Removing inventories, the growth rate was a tepid 1.5 percent. "

"Data ranging from employment to retail sales and manufacturing weakened substantially in March after robust gains in the first two months of the year. There are indications the weakness persisted into April. "

" However, households cut back on saving to fund their purchases after incomes dropped at a 5.3 percent rate in the first quarter - a bad sign for future spending growth. The drop in income was the largest since the third quarter of 2009.

The saving rate - the percentage of disposable income households are socking away - fell to 2.6 percent, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2007, from 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. "

" A core measure that strips out food and energy costs rose at a 1.2 percent rate, still well below the Fed's 2 percent target. Core PCE had increased at a 1.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

The lack of inflation should come as welcome relief for American households, but it could cause some nervousness at the U.S. central bank, which may see it as a symptom of the economy's weakness. "

I cherry picked some qoutes, but the article is all there. To me it just doesn't scream success and that we are out of the water. To me it more says we have no idea where things are going. We have less than expected growth that was bolstered by companies filling the reserves. Not much confidence in there.



No Paul Krugman mention is relevant without his brilliant insight.

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law”—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s." -Paul Krugman



Any economist that proclaims bubble growth over organic growth hates his children.



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Viper1 said:
Any economist that proclaims bubble growth over organic growth hates his children.

Except cat lady Krugman. His children won't outlive him.

Well, okay... looking at his spare tire and clam-like posture, maybe they will.



Pemalite said:
Kasz216 said:

I'd point out that the UK's GDP growth predictions... even lowered actually aren't that far off the US.

EVERYWHERE regardless of strategy seems to be stuck at ~1-2% GDP growth.

Even if you think the debt spending is making the difference... why kill yourself for 2%, building up a future huge disaster?  When you could have 1% and have a safer future?

Espiecally if nearly all that 1% is a boost soley due to government spending!


I wouldn't say *everywhere* Australia avoided recession during the global economic collapse and has maintained growth through the whole ordeal.

Sure?

Certainly looks like it dipped into a recession at a couple points.

Furthermore, any growth <2% is considered poor, let alone <1% which is anemic.



Viper1 said:
Any economist that proclaims bubble growth over organic growth hates his children.

Organic growth is actually very limited in nature (mostly to time-saving innovations and things that enable more people to live longer and live better). Most growth is bubble growth, whether backed by government spending or not.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

dsgrue3 said:
Pemalite said:
Kasz216 said:

I'd point out that the UK's GDP growth predictions... even lowered actually aren't that far off the US.

EVERYWHERE regardless of strategy seems to be stuck at ~1-2% GDP growth.

Even if you think the debt spending is making the difference... why kill yourself for 2%, building up a future huge disaster?  When you could have 1% and have a safer future?

Espiecally if nearly all that 1% is a boost soley due to government spending!


I wouldn't say *everywhere* Australia avoided recession during the global economic collapse and has maintained growth through the whole ordeal.

Sure?

Certainly looks like it dipped into a recession at a couple points.

Furthermore, any growth <2% is considered poor, let alone <1% which is anemic.


Not quite. The actual definition of recession is 2 consecutive periods of negative growth. That being said, their growth rate is still poor.



:D
Which European country is practising austerity?



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.