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Forums - Sales Discussion - ALL marioboys bought SMG and Wii? Or speculations made on SMG and SMS sales

Fastrabbit09 on 27 January 2008

btw, u also fail to include the fact that SMG is supply constrained in many places (not sold out everywhere), which hurts its weekly sales...that should be added to your data collection before making conclusions



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
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stof on 27 January 2008

Crazy thinks that a game out for years with multiple Christmases and players choice rereleases is the same as 12 weeks (10 in NA and Europe). And that's why there isn't a shred of sense in this analysis.



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Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

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Erik Aston on 27 January 2008

This thread is funny.

Interesting that Galaxy and Sunshine have similar overall attach rates at similar install base totals.

But I can't begin to understand how that implies Galaxy sales will reach a ceiling soon.



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Brianna on 27 January 2008

These things take time, not every single wii owner is gonna go buy the game that fast...
Lingyis on 27 January 2008

i would actually take this more as evidence the so-called "casual" wii gamers are just as into games as gamecube gamers, which bodes well for wii games down the road.



the Wii is an epidemic.

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tiachopvutru on 27 January 2008
Lingyis said:
i would actually take this more as evidence the so-called "casual" wii gamers are just as into games as gamecube gamers, which bodes well for wii games down the road.

 I definitely agree. My thanks to CrazzyMan for helping us proving it. He's just too shy to admit that that's his intention.



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ZenfoldorVGI on 27 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:

Now, i went to look at Super Mario Sunshine sales. Then looked at Super Mario Galaxy sales.

5.91 mln. SMS with 21.5 mln. GC sold.
5.35 mln. SMG with 20 mln. Wii sold.

SMS: -------------------------------------------------------------------- SMG:
Japan: 0.87 mln.(with 100k in last 90 weeks in Japan) - Japan: 0.88 mln.(i expect to reach 1.1 mln.)
USA: 3.73 mln. ------------------------------------------------------ USA: 2.90 mln. (legs are declining will reach 4.1 mln.)
Europe: 1.31 mln. -------------------------------------------------- Europe: 1.57 mln. (will reach 2.1 mln.)

Total: 7 mln. (6 mln. bought by mario fans) + 1 mln. new gamers.

If SMS did 6 mln., then with SMG making 7 mln. Wouldn`t that mean, that 85% of wii owners are mario/nintendo fans?
Because I DON`T see SMG reaching 12 mln.
Even 8 mln. to me are hard to beat(looking at 16k SMG in Japan).
+Now i am looking at Gears Of War sales. 2.2 mln. in first 10 weeks + 1 mln. in europe. With 20-50k legs on 11th week vs probably 60-70k of SMG(which of course will make 7 mln. vs 5 mln. geow).

Maybe i created this thread a bit too early, because legs really went down only in Japan(when SMG Reached SMS numbers), BUT i noticed that now, so.. =)

And READ - SPECULATIONS.


Too early. How long did it take Sunshine to reach those numbers? Now, if Galaxy keeps up that trend, and the Wii keeps selling like it is....well, if the Wii sells 60 million consoles, how many copies will have sold?

 

I just don't see the logic in comparing a first year console software number to a console with a whole generation behind it. 



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It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

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Fastrabbit09 on 28 January 2008

the best part of this thread is that it'll only take a few weeks to show he's wrong



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
shams on 28 January 2008

Its very simple to debunk this.

Lets say GC owners are Ninty fans.

But how many Wii owners have NEVER owned a GC? Answer - lots of them (I would say at *least* half).

There goes your theory. It only works if the same people that bought a GC also bought a Wii.

Poor old Galaxy - its only the best selling (non-packed in) title worldwide at the moment - with around 160k sales per week (or almost 1m / month).
http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php

Did you know its already outsold the PS3 versions of Uncharted + PES + Motorstorm?

...

Galaxy sales *will* slow - but even so, it still has a great chance of hitting 10m sold by Xmas '08 (and will easily reach 8m).



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DarkNight_DS on 28 January 2008
OriGin said:
How about this comparison?

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

 So with a smaller userbase, SMG is outselling NSMB and NSMB is still selling extremely well.  Much better then FF and GT4 which Crazyman somehow dragged into this thread. 

Mario games have always sold extremely well.  SMS is considered the low point in the series.  SMG is considered one of the best games ever made.  A lot of kids get Mario games for Christmas or their Birthdays (Parents know and love Mario).  He always has a new and fresh audience of gamers playing his games and someone suggest Mariofanboys are the only people buying the game?!?!? 

Ok then....



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