Mario Kart > Smash Bros > 3D Mario > Zelda

Numbers are impossible to guess for obvious reasons.

Aw, come on...roll the dice! XD

Thanks for the posts, guys. Keep 'em coming. I should make a separate thread on the system's sales itself...

It's a bit early to say. They will sell well, but we need to see the games and Nintendo's approach. People love innovation with Nintendo's games. Super Mario Galaxy was great - it had a neat theme, neat name and fantastic graphics and gameplay. If Super Mario U is revealed for this fall and it is called Super Mario Universe, has spectacular worlds to explore, neat new gameplay twists and fun new multiplayer using the game pad for more than collecting stars - the game will probably be huge, sell 10 million plus and move a bunch of systems so that other games sell well too. If it's Mario Sunshine 2 and releasing in February, it will sell around 7 million and not move as many systems, which will affect everything else.

This carries down the line. Mario Kart should hopefully be a big jump graphically and seem fresh. If it is, it will be a big mover. If it's a bit stale like some people felt NSMBU was (not me) it could see a lesser impact than the Wii version. Zelda, if it's mature and graphically stunning and has fresh gameplay (multiplayer? open world?) it could be massive, upwards of 10 million. If it's toony, then it will be lucky to hit 5 and again, it will negatively impact the systems sales themselves.

As far as the games we already know a bit about, I think Pikmin 3 is going to be the biggest selling Pikmin title. It will come close to 2 million. WWHD is perfect for WiiU, as the early adopters are the kind of people who will gobble it up. They are either people who loved it on GameCube or never played it but would like to now. When it hits it should impact system sales significantly. X should exceed Xenoblade sales by quite a bit. If it turns out as well as the trailer implied, and if Nintendo treats it as a major 1st party title with worldwide launch, it could become a bit of a system seller and sales could be upwards of 3 million.

I'm not too concerned of WiiU sales vs Wii sales, because I look at it in the opposite direction. I don't think it's the install base that makes good software sales, but rather software that will drive up the install base. If the games are good, people will buy Wii U to play them. Especially if it comes down $50 and is the cheapest system.

I wasn't joking.

The "core" want a dark, semi-realistic Zelda. (Think Twilight Princess) Why do you think the E3 2011 demo got so much positive hype? Numerous gamers who would otherwise never touch a Wii U would run out and buy one to play a dark Zelda in HD.

If Zelda U is cartoony, these same gamers will run for the hills.

I'm just going to give my predictions as if the Wii U sells 50 million.
Mario Kart: 12 million
Super Smash Bros: 10 million
3D Mario: 8 million
Zelda (if realistic): 6 million
Zelda (if cartoony): 3million
Wii Fit U: 6 million
Pikmin 3: 2.5 million
Wind Waker: 2 million
"X": 1.8 million
Yoshi's Yarn: 1.5 million
Lego City: 2 million
Wonderful 101: 1 million
Bayonetta 2: 600k
Metroid: (if they market it well): 3 million, (if they don't): 1.5 million

Since I promised...

I expect Wii U's (First Party) titles to sell worse than most First Party Wii Titles. When your console doesn't have as large as an install base as the Wii, you are pretty much guaranteed to sell less SW.

Was that generic enough?

While I hope I'm wrong, I don't see WiiU doing that well over it's lifetime. But Nintendo's games always sell great on their own platforms so despite WiiU's sales being a small fraction of Wii's I expect main franchise sales to be a large percent of what they were on Wii and close to their GC counterparts. Except for Wii___ titles, Mario Kart and NSMBU because WiiU lacks and I expect always will lack Wii's casual base.

Super Smash Bros - 7-8m
Zelda - 5-6m
3D Mario 6-8m
Mario Kart, NSMBU 10-15m
Metroid, Kirby, Starfox, Pikmin - 1m
Animal Crossing 3-4m
Wii___ - 3-10m

well kind of. GCN has a way better attach ratio than wii titles. also Metroid prime sales>>> Metroid prime 3 which is on Wii. Even Metroid other m sold worse. both on wii

3D Mario 7m
SSBU 12M
Console Pokemon 2M
Mario Kart 10m
X 1m
Zelda 6M
Pikmin 1M

That didn't justify your point. That justified why you think A cartoony Zelda on the WiiU would sell less than Twilight Princess.

Why would a cartoony Zelda on the Gamecube outsell a cartoony Zelda on the WiiU?