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Forums - Sales Discussion - Stranger than fiction: Is PS3 about to win the console sales war?

Kuramakun on 06 March 2013

I doubt it, I do see the PS3 comming in on 2nd place though.



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GameAnalyser on 06 March 2013
Mnementh said:
ethomaz said:
JWeinCom said:
At the current rate that its selling, it will take the PS3 3.4 years to catch up to the Wii. This is assuming not a single Wii is sold. But, if the Wii keeps selling at its current rate, it will add about 4,000,000 to its total. So, if both systems continue to sell at the current rate, it will take the PS4 about 4 years.

Of course the systems will not continue to sell at the current rates. PS3 will probably dip more than the Wii, because the Wii simply doesn't have very far to drop. If Wii sales drop to zero and PS3 sales average 80,000, it will take 5 years for the PS3 to catch the Wii. If it averages 50,000 per week, it will take 8.8 years to catch the Wii.

So... I don't really see that happening. The PS3 isn't going to have as long of a post PS4 life as the PS2 did post PS3. The PS2 basically had no opposition. The X-Box and Gamecube were essentially dead once the next generation of consoles arrives. The Wii and X-Box 360 still have some decent life left in them.
Well...

FY2012: 77 million
FY2013: 89 million (12 million shipped)
FY2014: 99 million (10 million shipped)
FY2015: 106 million (7 million shipped)
FY2016: 111 million (5 million shipped)
FY2017: 113 million (2 million shipped)

Is that too hard? You can remove 1 million per year if you think I'm optimistic... 108 million shipped... I can't see Wii topping that.

Then you absolutely should take my bet. If PS3 overtakes Wii (max until 2020) you win, I win if it does not. What do you say, deal?

So many people here say it is doable or even likely, but nobody will take my bet. You all should better BELI3VE!


Hoping VGChartz archives the thread until then.



GameAnalyser on 06 March 2013
BHR-3 said:
yeah i believe the ps3 will surpass both 360 and wii in the future to bad i or someone else didnt foresee this earlier in the gen when it mattered oh wait. . . http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=102249

sony doesnt drop support for its past gen consoles like the others, this has been shown for the last to gens

next gen will have a slower start compared to last gens, as shown by the wii u already and b/c of the big technical jump of the HW

23-28M isnt to much of a gap to overcome in the next 4-5 yrs especially since PS is a stronger brand on a WW level compared to Ms and nintendo

It's the emerging markets that will play the key role. And now China is open to consoles, things would coast along in a steady manner for PS.



thismeintiel on 06 March 2013
theRepublic said:
thismeintiel said:
theRepublic said:
Has anyone actually been in the gaming section of a big box store lately? There are four consoles and two handhelds right now and it is packed. There is not going to be space for six consoles, two handhelds, plus games for each. All last gen consoles are not going to be stocked after about one year of the PS4 and Xbox3 coming to market.

While you are correct that most stores won't stock ALL of the current gen consoles (there are currently 3 handhelds being sold, not just 2), they will keep one or two for longer than just a year.  I think it's a no brainer that the Wii and the DS will be the first to go.  Not only are they not pushing a lot of HW, but also not a lot of SW, which retailers care about most.  Of the 360 and the PS3, I think the 360 will be the first to go.  I can completely see MS abandoning it to support an all out war with the PS4, especially in the territory MS needs to keep the most.  I think we'll see US stores keeping the PS3 around for at least 2 years after the PS4 launches.  EU and Japan will keep it around for at least 3 years.  Emerging markets will probably have the PS3 for at least another 4 years.

In the big stores, PS2 only made it 2 years at the most in the US.  Probably less.  PS3 will not come even close to that.

I don't know what stores you have been to, but all the Walmarts, KMarts, and Targets around me carried the PS2 til about 2010, maybe even early 2011.  So, ~4 years into the PS3's life.  I expect the PS3 can last at least half that time.



 

adriane23 on 06 March 2013

The Wii would need to completely stop selling and China would really need to be a high demand market. Both of which are possible. With all the disasters (some outside of SONY's control) that happened to the PS brand this year, SONY should still be happy with coming in at second place by the end of 2013, since they weren't in competition with Nintendo this gen anyway.



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 06 March 2013

i'm in doubt of Sony releasing PS3 in China.

during the PS3's hype, i estimated 125m ww by 2020. but personal adjustments have changed those numbers, and i haven't predicted consoles sales in over a yr.

PS3 will likely reach 10-12m by yr.'s end, and is still undertracked from last yr. (imo)

PS3 will have sold 80m units sold by yr.'s end. 5-10 for the next 4 yr's will put PS3 over 100m units sold, and it won't be discontinued in 2016 either.

lets wait for GOD:A and the last of us to release before we jump the gun.



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 06 March 2013
thismeintiel said:

I don't know what stores you have been to, but all the Walmarts, KMarts, and Targets around me carried the PS2 til about 2010, maybe even early 2011.  So, ~4 years into the PS3's life.  I expect the PS3 can last at least half that time.

PS2 got took out of display just last yr. in Alex. LA. Walmart lol. Hastings still has a huge section dedicated to PS2. well i haven't been there in 3 months so things have changed. anyway this is my post. your thoughts.

 

during the PS3's hype, i estimated 125m ww by 2020. but personal adjustments have changed those numbers, and i haven't predicted consoles sales in over a yr.

PS3 will likely reach 10-12m by yr.'s end, and is still undertracked from last yr. 

PS3 will have sold 80m units sold by yr.'s end. 5-10 for the next 4 yr's will put PS3 over 100m units sold, and it won't be discontinued in 2016 either.

lets wait for GOD:A and the last of us to release before we jump the gun.



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Lawlight on 06 March 2013
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
i'm in doubt of Sony releasing PS3 in China.

during the PS3's hype, i estimated 125m ww by 2020. but personal adjustments have changed those numbers, and i haven't predicted consoles sales in over a yr.

PS3 will likely reach 10-12m by yr.'s end, and is still undertracked from last yr. (imo)

PS3 will have sold 80m units sold by yr.'s end. 5-10 for the next 4 yr's will put PS3 over 100m units sold, and it won't be discontinued in 2016 either.

lets wait for GOD:A and the last of us to release before we jump the gun.


Given that the PS3 is already at 77M in February, it's safe to assume that it'll be about 85M by year's end.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 06 March 2013
Lawlight said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
i'm in doubt of Sony releasing PS3 in China.

during the PS3's hype, i estimated 125m ww by 2020. but personal adjustments have changed those numbers, and i haven't predicted consoles sales in over a yr.

PS3 will likely reach 10-12m by yr.'s end, and is still undertracked from last yr. (imo)

PS3 will have sold 80m units sold by yr.'s end. 5-10 for the next 4 yr's will put PS3 over 100m units sold, and it won't be discontinued in 2016 either.

lets wait for GOD:A and the last of us to release before we jump the gun.


Given that the PS3 is already at 77M in February, it's safe to assume that it'll be about 85M by year's end.

yea i did math based on the holiday season and not the full yr.



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 06 March 2013
Metallicube said:

For gods sake.. NO, its not going to happen.. And Sony did NOT sell 77 million either. But even if they did, the notion is just absurd. I'm getting sick of this same ridiculous topic popping up. I'll say it again to make sure it soaks in, NOT going to happen. Just make peace with it already, for yours and my sake.

Honestly, You're gonna get second, Sony fans. Is that not good enough?

2 things. first, no it's never enough to those who have opinions. i'm believing less and less core Sony fanboys will care either way.

second, it's very possible. we are looking at 85m units sold by 2013 yr. end. all PS3 needs to do is sell 8-10m in 2014 2015 5-8m and 5-8m in 2016, and with the current breakdown in numbers that i've seen for how people think it will go. Ps3 can out sell Wii by 2015.

1 final note. PS3 will not be discontinued in 2016. Sony doesn't know how to kill the horse. i'd give it 2020.



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