I find it hard to believe this prediction when your prediction about the handhelds went so hay-wire, but I'll give it a go...

The PS4 and NextBox, despite what people may think about the prices, will ultimately be too high for the market at this time. I doubt that they will have any record breaking sales and pre-orders in their first few weeks/months on the market. The PS4 might have a good line up of games but that won't mean automatic success at all. The NextBox will most likely struggle with the European markets outside of the UK and it won't get much support there at the start. Their first few years will be okay, but...
The Wii U will be picking up after E3. Come the Holiday Season it should have an okay line up of games and Nintendo will release their block busters. If they pull a 3DS (New 3D Mario and Mario Kart) then you bet the PS4 and NextBox will have an even tougher time.

I'm not going to make a end of Gen prediction, though, because that would be stupid. I don't have a crystal ball like Pachter. Most of this isn't set in stone.

I don't feel like he addressed the issues at hand in his article and it was obviously Sony biased.

lol, very direct I see.

Oh, and I predict the same. So who do think will be second and third? I think Ninty will be second, but by less than 5% worldwide.

WiiU wil continue to struggle but wil eventually go on to sell 40-50m, it'll be a success eventually.
Xbox 720 will do worse in Japan and Europe, the gap with PS4 in NA will be much smaller
PS4 will be up every region, biggest boost in NA.

I dont think the PS4 will be up in Japan unfortunetly, I see all consoles underselling their previous gen counterparts

I think your prediction is off a bit.

Here's how I see it playing out:

WiiU - Has stumbled out of the gate, much like the 3DS. However, Nintendo was able to quickly address its discrepancies, and cut the price, which has made it rather viable. I don't see this happening with as great success with the WiiU, as the competition will be much more fierce, and its opposition is going to bring far more assets. The WiiU will become pidgeonholed over the next 2-3 years as getting ports of 360/PS3 titles, while seeing an increasingly skimpy 3rd party library, as its hardware shares little with its next-gen kin. Additionally, their online infrastructure and digital footprint is the weakest of the three, which puts them in a very precarious situation with publishers that are constantly seeking more value and revenue from long-tail sales via the digital market place.

It will sell between 30-45m units LTD.


PS4 - Sony has done arguably everything right with its release. However, they're dealing with something they've never faced before: Less brand awareness, and a competent opponent in Microsoft. They've made a very smart play for developers and publishers, which will help them out considerably this coming generation. Additionally, their online push is likely to yield some strong value going forward.

However, I think that the one thing that will hurt them this time is the same thing that hurt them last gen - price. It may not be as significant as the abysmal $599 of yester-gen, but its still likely to be very unfavorable when compared to the next Xbox. However, they'll see a generation that is far more fluid than the last one. I believe they'll sell in between 70 million and 90 million units worldwide.


Nextbox - Its hard to fully speculate on the system, as we only hear rumors. However, Microsoft is also in an odd position: The driver's seat, or something close to it. They added 50 million users this generation, while their heated rival lost 50 million. They're seemingly adopting a very general gaming focus, as they are likely to push both core and Kinect. This could either be brilliant, or awful. The hardware is likely to be underwhelming compared to the PS4, but is likely to be competent enough to get the same ports as the PS4. Hopefully, the architecture is easy to work with, allowing for affordable exclusivity and other deals the coming gen.

What will really separate Microsoft, good or bad, this coming generation is online features and entertainment. Microsoft destroyed Sony and Nintendo when it came to their online offerings - XBLA titles destroyed PSN and WiiWare by hefty margins, and DLC did very well, alongside all of their other noted offerings. They've also added some IPTV functionality, and cable offerings.

The real what-if scenario is if Microsoft can score big next-gen in regards to online and entertainment. If Microsoft can make the next Xbox a set-top system that encourages people to use it instead of AppleTV, Roku, and other devices, as well as push for differed payment options via its X360 subscription model, it could absolutely kill Sony in regards to price and value. Imagine the next Xbox releasing for $199 or even $99 via an XBL Gold subscription model. If they did this, it would nullify any advantage Sony has, and utterly destroy the WiiU's supposed value immediately. But again, these are major "What ifs".. Microsoft isn't stupid, but they aren't brilliant either - they just happened to be the least stupid of the Big 3 last gen. They may sell anywhere from 70 million to 120 million units, depending on how smart they are.


SteamBox / OUYA - I think these consoles are going to be boutique affairs, but they're going to do better than the other also-rans we've seen in years' past. OUYA is likely to sell >1 million units, and a Steambox can probably do 5 million, or so. However, I just don't see them getting major traction, as the other consoles will be just too attractive to develop for. However, they can likely get great affection from indie developers, which may allow them to compete with Microsoft's set top box desires. We'll see.

By up do you mean up from the total that the PS3 has right now?

Those were some praise worthy predictions Your Highness.

Like I told Kowen, that was before the $80 price cut.  I definitely don't see the 60% even being possible, now.

I don't see why people keep spouting this BS about the PS4 being too expensive at ~$399.  For the largest part of 2007, when the world economies took a nosedive, the PS3 was still $499.  It dropped to $399 for only 2 months of that year, yet it sold 7.92M units.  That's 1.12M more than the 360 sold in its 2nd year, which had a much better economy to sell in.  A PS4 at $399-$429 will do just fine.

As for the Wii U part, yes, I do think the sales of Wii U will definitely pick up after more games and a price cut.  However, you don't go from selling like a dying console 2 months after launch to being the market leader.  It's selling even worse than the PS3 at this point, which launched for $200 more and wasn't even available in EU.  I don't think Sony and MS really have anything to fear from the Wii U.  They didn't even have to change their 360 and PS3 pricing to compete with it.

At this point, I don't see how any of the three platforms can dominate ala NES, PS1, or PS2. The Wii U will lack the 3rd party support and the PS4 and NextBox will likely come out the gate at $500 or more. Furthermore, if what we saw at the PS4 reveal is any indicator, there won't be a huge gameplay leap similar to 3D platformers on the N64, open world games on the PS2, or online shooters on the 360. That will slow down the adoption rate for the Ps4/720 more than the Wii U, since at least the U will cost more similarly to the PS3 and 360 and while having years of support ahead of it.

Honestly, this generation could end up with the first notable contraction in console history, particularly since Sony can possibly die 2/3 of the way through the generation if things go sour. Add in the resurgence of PC gaming, competition from the mobile devices, and non-gaming machines being used for things like playing media, and the market could end up a bit crowded.

Here's how I can see the rest of 2013 and some of 2014 going down.

Wii U: Continues to do poorly until the holidays, when a couple of 3rd party games combine with the might of Wind Waker HD, Mario Kart, and the minor hits of all year to give it a solid Q4. 2014 will generally go well as the platform enjoys the best 3rd party support of its life, thanks to combined overlap with 7th gen and 8th gen machines (See Watch Dogs and Call of Duty), and games like 3D Mario, Project X, and Yarn Yoshi, come out. The Wii U will likely be the only 8th generation console that matters in Japan until 2015 or so, seeing as there's no reason the PS3 won't steal support from the PS4 like the PSP is stealing from the Vita.

PS4: This system will get off to a rough start. Sony has yet to reveal a real killer app for the system (No, Sci Fi CoD and multiplatform games don't count), so at this point, it looks like the system will start off without a really big title. Combined with the high price of entry (I'm sticking to $500 until proven otherwise) and the still decent costs of established machines (The PS360 will likely still cost $200 this holiday season), it will have a hard time getting established. This is made even worse by the lack of a revolutionary new media to push hardware. More than one person bought the PS2 as a DVD player and the PS3 as a BlueRay player. Seeing as how people can get Netflix on their aging Wii nowadays, it's likely that the PS4 will have to stand on its own.

NextBox: See the PS4, albeit slightly better off. Microsoft has inferior 1st parties to the other 2, but several things put them at an advantage. First, Kinect 2.0 ought to win over a few casuals, especially after making a big splash since 2010. Second, Microsoft will likely have a Halo game and some nice casual-oriented games available around launch, which will sell a lot. But the likely $500 price point will drive people away.

Conclusion: I'm not tooo optimistic about the 8th generation. I was a couple of months ago, when the PS4 had 4 GB of RAM. But after this week's presentation, it looks like the industry is going to go through some hard times.