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thismeintiel on 23 February 2013
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NintendoPie said:

I find it hard to believe this prediction when your prediction about the handhelds went so hay-wire, but I'll give it a go...

The PS4 and NextBox, despite what people may think about the prices, will ultimately be too high for the market at this time. I doubt that they will have any record breaking sales and pre-orders in their first few weeks/months on the market. The PS4 might have a good line up of games but that won't mean automatic success at all. The NextBox will most likely struggle with the European markets outside of the UK and it won't get much support there at the start. Their first few years will be okay, but...
The Wii U will be picking up after E3. Come the Holiday Season it should have an okay line up of games and Nintendo will release their block busters. If they pull a 3DS (New 3D Mario and Mario Kart) then you bet the PS4 and NextBox will have an even tougher time.

I'm not going to make a end of Gen prediction, though, because that would be stupid. I don't have a crystal ball like Pachter. Most of this isn't set in stone.

Like I told Kowen, that was before the $80 price cut.  I definitely don't see the 60% even being possible, now.

I don't see why people keep spouting this BS about the PS4 being too expensive at ~$399.  For the largest part of 2007, when the world economies took a nosedive, the PS3 was still $499.  It dropped to $399 for only 2 months of that year, yet it sold 7.92M units.  That's 1.12M more than the 360 sold in its 2nd year, which had a much better economy to sell in.  A PS4 at $399-$429 will do just fine.

As for the Wii U part, yes, I do think the sales of Wii U will definitely pick up after more games and a price cut.  However, you don't go from selling like a dying console 2 months after launch to being the market leader.  It's selling even worse than the PS3 at this point, which launched for $200 more and wasn't even available in EU.  I don't think Sony and MS really have anything to fear from the Wii U.  They didn't even have to change their 360 and PS3 pricing to compete with it.