The Vita will pull ahead for a while thanks to the price cut, but the Wii U might still win the year if the second half of the year has some heavy-hitting software like Smash Bros and Mario Kart.

I get that mentality, the Wii U is currently selling worse than Vita at the same point in its lifetime under more favourable conditions, but while the Vita started to (and will continue to) coast along with mostly niche third party support and the odd mid-sized first party/third party game, the Wii U is guaranteed all the usual big first party games from Nintendo within the next couple of years. There's just no way with the size of those franchises that the Vita won't be outsold by Wii U, unless similarly large franchises make their way to Vita (e.g. continued COD/AC support, a portable GTA and a GT game - which just aren't happening). 

Wii U is on the best way to repeat the GCN sales - as I have predicted months ago. What is the limit for it? 35 mil? Probably a bit more, so around 40 mil? It's really hard to believe it'll sell more than 45 mil. That's all that 1st party games can give it and they have to be awesome. This is an optimistic evaluation.

Vita will be getting good first party games, don't underestimate the Sony brands. God of War and GT are easily system sellers, Uncharted and Killzone and a few others are premium brands as well, so don't call them mid-sized, cause it just sounds ignorant. A GT game is on the way without a doubt. I expect it to come out in 2014, a bit later if they plan to release a Cross-Play port of the GT that will be released on PS4. Vita has already managed to build a respectable portfolio of games in just one year, it needs just that one spark now and then the ceiling for it, as a handheld, will be much higher than 40-45 million. I can easily see Vita follow the PS3 route and explode after some time, when price of the console and memory cards is right and a few more games get released. We'll know more about its potential in a couple of weeks, when current announcements influence the Japanese market and in September when Killzone will try to fight for the western audience. I also hope that Activision will continue (start?) to make CoD games for Vita. But good ones this time. I hope they'll see the sales this way: "we gave them the crappiest game in history of the franchise and yet it sold over 600k, if we make a good game, it'll sell way over a million." Also the development costs for Vita will be much lower than next gen, which may be a factor going for the console.

But you are right saying that Vita is much more dependant on the fickle 3rd party support. The future of Wii U is clear to me, it's just going to be mediocre yet profitable for Nintendo, just like GCN. Vita can still be a much bigger hit, or a bigger fail.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Vita and wallet ready for the upcoming games ;) This console is so awesome, that it deserves to be a success.

And I'm still hoping to play MGS Vita: Phantom Pain... That game would set the Vita charts on fire this Christmas.

Now if anything gamers from NA/Europe will wait until the price drop comes to their regions. The sales from both regions will fall by comparison.

I'm sorry guys, I love mario but the New Super Mario Bros. series is slowly dying. It's like if you've played the Wii one you've played all of them. It's not an example of what the Wii U hardware is really capable of. I've been gaming for many years, don't question my credibility please. I'm really tired on New Super Mario Bros. they need a new mario series honestly. I love Nintendo's mario games but there's a point in time where mario is enough. What's really stupid is comparing the Vita to the Wii U. Two totally different consoles/machines. If you can't count the Wii U is still doing better than the vita even though it is slightly.

The system may have a Mario game but it isn't an innovative mario game. Nobody is going to go buy a Wii U because New Super Mario Bros. U is taking advantage of the hardware and it's completely different. Super Mario Galaxy added in new mechanics that made Sunshine look like crap. People want games that they feel are new. New Super Mario Bros. isn't that new anymore. If you've played one you've played them all. Yes, I'm still a Nintendo fan but my thoughts on the series haven't changed. After NSMBW it gets kinda old.

The Vita will outsell Wii U once the price drop hits in Japan. Not simply because of the price but because of the software.

Western sales will likely slug, even with a price. But sony could announce some things 2moro that will do big things for the Vita, like streaming ps3 games starting with God of War. That would sell the vita in truck loads, the only reason why cross buy never helped the vita s because no one wanted to buy the games that supported the feature (Sly, Ratchet and PASBR)

Hard to say. A price cut should help Vita but both systems desperately need some great exclusives. We know WiiU will be getting some great Nintendo IP - but don't know when.
I've no idea about what, if any great Vita exclusives are upcoming.

In both cases their best market is Japan, and Vita likely has more upward mobility in handheld centric Japan than WiiU but why anyone (other than Sony who games are too Westernized) would put a notable exclusive on the crap-selling Vita instead of 3DS (or even PSP) at this point is beyond me.

/endthread

I thought that was common knowledge. Software sells consoles after launch and Wii U has software coming unlike Vita.

I think the real title to this thread should be, "Will Vita start outselling PS2 now?" 

Nails it. Should be 1st post!

However, I don't think the Wii U will have a price cut. Nintendo will most likely bundle New Super Mario Bros U with a 12GB Wii U pre-installed at 299.99$. The average consumer does not see the value of purchasing the Wii U at 299.99$ without content - I don't blame them.

it's good to see that after all this time we still have room for another vita doom thread. :P