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Hard to say. A price cut should help Vita but both systems desperately need some great exclusives. We know WiiU will be getting some great Nintendo IP - but don't know when.
I've no idea about what, if any great Vita exclusives are upcoming.

In both cases their best market is Japan, and Vita likely has more upward mobility in handheld centric Japan than WiiU but why anyone (other than Sony who games are too Westernized) would put a notable exclusive on the crap-selling Vita instead of 3DS (or even PSP) at this point is beyond me.