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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony Q3 FY2012 - $124m loss, PS3+PS2 6.8m, PSV+PSP 2.7m

Train wreck said:

Guess different people from different segments are going to cherry pick which ever data points they want to advance their agenda. Guess I'll do the same:

Most of the companies in consumer electronics are citing soft growth worldwide for their light sales numbers, which makes sense. I don't see how Sony is going to be immune to these pressures.

Sony as a whole last year Q3: Loss of $2 billion dollars, this year loss of $100 million, definite improvement over last year, still below the profit that 3 analyst expected, includes a massive 432 million tax bill for this quarter, day to day operations are still positive. I did not see any asset sales for this quarter (do not know where that Japanese analyst Bloomberg quoted got that from), the sale of their NY headquarters happened in January so it will be reflected in this quarters numbers

In terms of Sony's piers in the industries that they compete in:

Gaming
Microsoft and Nintendo reported lower sales in their gaming division, even with Nintendo having a new console on the market. I really dont see how Sony was able to skirt that when overall gaming revenue around the world has been down according to NPD/GFK/Japanese Media.

They are maintaining overall console shipments which is surprising. Sony cut its handheld shipments in half from last year start of the fiscal year to 7 from 14. Also the cut tells me that they do not plan on lowering the price soon. Probably their weakest product right now, dont know how they are going to turn it around without a permament price cut and software. Nintendo, which is the market leader cut their shipments by 23% from 18.5 to 15 in the same time period.

Last year's operating income was helped out by the introduction of the Vita in Japan.

Cameras:
See Nikon: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-07/nikon-plunges-most-since-1985-after-forecast-cut-tokyo-mover.html
and Canon: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/canon-q4-profit-edges-down-sees-growth-in-fy13-announces-dividends-20130130-00083#.URPBdqVEF2A
They both tell the story of whats going on in the dedicated camera space (Sony does too, higher smartphone sales and lower demand from television/print media for big production cameras)

TVs
Outside Samsung no one is experiencing growth (Panasonic and LG and Sharp experienced lowered TV sales)

Movies, Music, Financial
moving the company forward as usual

Mobile
Pretty much the lone bright spot, sales up 100%, negative net income but as carriers get a better mix of product to try to get away from the iphone and its high "apple tax" i see their mobile unit benefiting, especially if they come out with compelling products

@bolded So true

Anyways i thought you post was pretty great! Not overly negative like most people in here are claiming and not overly positive either. Well said.

While the core business is still operating at a loss, despite the more favourable environment, i think the control on losses is the big thing in this report and not the lack of profit. If Sony can continue on this trend and not lose focus (ie. selling the ps4 at a major loss would be imo losing focus) then they can definitely turn things around.

At the end of the day you don't need to be a market leader to have a profitable company.



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Kind of an interesting side note, fuelled by a hint of boredom while I ate breakfast: If you purely use the VGC charts for the Vita (obviously not THAT accurate, but it's something, at least), get the 2012 Vita numbers, then subtract all sales until March 31st (when the new fiscal year started), followed by adding what you get for 2013, you get a grand total of 2,597,500 Vitas sold in this fiscal year so far.

Yikes.



Max King of the Wild said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
ethomaz said:

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

87m shipped or sold? i have 85m sold end of 2013

Shipped... so we have close predictions .

lol ok sounds good. so by 2015 105-120m sold which high end is a bit of a stretch but PS3 should have long legs at the right price.

and 95m maybe by yr. end 2014.


I'm expecting 85mil shipped this year. The Ps3's pricecut will make it flat YoY but it won't take effect till last half of the year. So basically 3mil less in first half of the year (It shipped 13mil this year right?)

13m shipped, yea i think that's right. there's a chance of 90m shipped though. i wouldn't bet money lol.



So 3.4m PS3 on shelves? Unless Sony overshipped then this doesnt seem right, i guess we will have to wait til next quarter as always.



ethomaz said:

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

only 80m!! i'm predictig 85m.

He thinks PS3 will shell just 5 million in the next year lol

lol who thinks that? i know sales2099 doesn't think that. 10-12m, but 5m is ludacris, and some type of fanboy mentality. 

@sales2099 you seem to be coming unhinged.



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shanbcn said:
So 3.4m PS3 on shelves? Unless Sony overshipped then this doesnt seem right, i guess we will have to wait til next quarter as always.

yea that seems about right, unless we've undertracked which i doubt would be by more then 2m. 



shanbcn said:
So 3.4m PS3 on shelves? Unless Sony overshipped then this doesnt seem right, i guess we will have to wait til next quarter as always.



More like 2.8-3mil on shelves. undertracked by a good margin in the last 3 quarters and have been adding up.



ethomaz said:

That's bot a good estimation but here we go...

Q1 FY2011

PS3+PS2 =  3.2m
PS3 = 1.8m (56%)

Q2 FY2011

PS3+PS2 =  4.9m
PS3 = 3.7m (76%)

Q3 FY2011

PS3+PS2 =  7.4m
PS3 = 6.5m (88%)

 

Using the same PS3 ratio from last year to this year (even so I think the PS2 drop is bigger than PS3).

 

Q1 FY2012

PS3+PS2 =  2.8m
PS3 = 2.4m (estimated - 66.3m LTD)

Q2 FY2012

PS3+PS2 =  3.5m
PS3 = 2.7m (estimated - 69.0m LTD)

Sony reported 70 million PS3 shipped as of November 4th, 2012 * my estimate fits *

Q3 FY2012

PS3+PS2 =  6.8m
PS3 = 6.0m (estimated - 75.0m LTD)

 

That's is what I can do for you guys.

 

Those PS2 shipments seem too generous, last fiscal year trend:

1.4 (Q1 - FY 2011) -> 1.2 (-15%) -> 0.9 (-25% - Christmas quarter!) -> 0.6 (-33%) -> 0.4 (-33%) -> 0.8 (+100%) -> 0.8 (flat) -> xxx

PS2 could have been in the 0.2m - 0.3m range in Q3 and Q4. It is no more something you buy as a gift for Christmas, I bet a 0.5 -> 0.3/0.4 -> 0.2/0.3 progression is much more likely.



babuks said:
Few days later when PS2 sale will completely stop, it will be interesting to see how Sony announces their financial (Maybe with combined PS3 + PS4 sales?).


PS3/PSP/PSV then PS3/PSP/PS4



Booh! said:

Those PS2 shipments seem too generous, last fiscal year trend:

1.4 (Q1 - FY 2011) -> 1.2 (-15%) -> 0.9 (-25% - Christmas quarter!) -> 0.6 (-33%) -> 0.4 (-33%) -> 0.8 (+100%) -> 0.8 (flat) -> xxx

PS2 could have been in the 0.2m - 0.3m range in Q3 and Q4. It is no more something you buy as a gift for Christmas, I bet a 0.5 -> 0.3/0.4 -> 0.2/0.3 progression is much more likely.

We have to be generous when trying to determine sales of unknowns. One reason why declines might not have dropped as much over the last few quarters is because 600k is negligable and you cant really get less than that. So maybe Sony shipped a consistant 600-900k last 2 quarters because anything less wouldn't be worth it.