This whole discussion is totally pointless because most posters don't know what they are even talking about. It almost makes me cry! Hell...

- You can't talk about Wii sales if you don't understand what a disruptive product is
- You can't predict Wii U sales if you don't have a basic understanding of value innovation and value networks
- You can't talk about effects of a price cut if you've never heard of price elasticity of demand
- Don't talk about Vita sales if you don't know what an upmarket and a downmarket is and how the 3DS plays into this

Reading this thread (granted, I only skipped most posts after a certain point) I get the feeling most people (especially the most vocal ones) haven't even heard of these things and are just talking out of a gut feeling. It's mind boggling (And I don't want to pick out anyone personally, really. Just saying.)

Yes.

Sincerely, a Vita basher.

No Dragon Quest game has ever tripled its three month sales.  That period of time generally makes up 90+% of ther lifetime sales.  If it is only at 300k in June, it won't hit 900k.  Even insanely leggy games don't usually do that in Japan.  NSMB DS got about 47% of its total sales in that period.  The Wii version 79%.  Wii Fit 45%.  The only game I've been able to find that managed it was Nintendogs.  Considering Dragon Quest isn't a new casual IP being released on a platform that will become the best selling in Japan, it seems unlikely that it can manage those legs.

My point with Skylanders is that you said we can't trust the data and it is higher than it looks.  While this might technically be true as in 3,697 is more than 3,691, it is pretty meaningless.  We know the first week was incredible low.  It was more than 10 places below a game that sold ~1,600 units.  We know it hasn't made the top 10 Wii U chart in any week, and we know the barrier to enter that chart is extremely low.

As for the rest, we'll just have to wait and see if Nintendo has anything in the wings by March.  They don't exactly have the best track record for hitting their hardware forecasts.  Last fiscal year they missed on all three systems from their stated forecasts in Q3 to the actual figures in Q4.  And of course all of their forecasts for this current fiscal year have been slashed. In the 2010 fiscal year they also missed on all 3 systems from Q3 to Q4.  The craziest of which was them keeping their forecast of 6.8 million DS units for Q4 when they only shipped 1.82 million.  History shows they have made bad forecasts ever since Wii and DS sales dropped, but I guess we'll see come April.

Becuase that is how bad the Vita is failing, it has little prospects outside of a handful of Japanese games and cross play Sony titles.

The 3DS was failing for a few months but has been doing steady business since the price cut. The Wii U while failing so far, it is mainly because like with the 3DS before the fall of 2011 and the Vita still, it has no software to push the system. Pikmin 3 and Monster Hunter Tri Ultimate will help but the Wii U still has golden eggs in the form of Mario games and Smash Bros down the line.

The official statement from Sony was released over a year ago (november 2012).

I think it's perfectly fine to criticize another system, even if one you like isn't doing so well.  Free speech and all.  What I find amusing, however, is the excuses Nintendo fans come up with for the Wii U.  Here's the top 3 I keep seeing. 

Well, it sold over 2.4M in two months.  While this is true, it's just looking at the total sales, which include a good launch.  However, if you look at recent sales trends, it is very troubling.  The most recent numbers put it at 33.5K for last week.  I took a quick look at the charts, and maybe someone could point this out to me if I'm wrong, but I'm can't find a time when PS3 has dropped to below 35K WW.  And keep in mind that the PS3's entry price was $200 more than that of the Wii U, so this is very troubling.

Wait til it get's games, especially a 3D Mario.  This one is the strangest for me, since a 3D Mario has never been a larger system seller than a 2D Mario.  In fact, many Wii fans were saying the same things when NSMB Wii was announced and released, and they were right.  You can also look at the N64's or Gamecube's sales to support this.  Once, I even had a Nintendo fan explain to me that those two systems didn't sell well because the Mario games for those systems weren't true (read 2D) Marios.  Now, all of a sudden Nintendo fans think a 3D Mario is going to save the system?  Interesting.  I think for the most part, Nintendo has already played some of its biggest cards in terms of SW.

The whole industry is in a decline, which will be even worse for the PS4/NeXbox.  While the industry is in a decline, it has to do more with the current systems turning 7 years old (8 for the 360) this year.  That doesn't necessarily mean that next gen will continue this decline.  It also implies that Nintendo has always been on top, so the other consoles will always fare worse than Nintendo's console.  I think a lot of this comes from some Nintendo fans only coming into gaming recently, so are ignorant, willingly or not, of what happened with the N64 and Gamecube.  Personally, I think the Wii U is going to end up with sales similar to those consoles.

Actually I would rather have systems come out without something that has to do with a system failing coming up. It is extremely unlikely any of the new systems will fail. Maybe struggle but not fail. The only way systems like them can fail is if the manufacturer did something terribly wrong.

That is the argument I've used and it is actually very valid. I wouldn't say the industry is in decline but people are spending less. Look at 3ds and vita. 3ds came out at £230 and people didn't pay it. People swore they would do it with vita though and look what happened. It seems the specs didn't lure consumers in.

Wii u has launched at a fairly mainstream price for gamers and it is yet again struggling. If you actually think more power (which would mean more expensive consoles and games as well) will fair any better then you are probably in for a rude awakening. In fact this time next year I think we will see the same excuses vita got when that came out "oh but wii u launched without any competition so it isn't fair to compare to that". It depends how sales go but I highly doubt the others aren't going to struggle.

yeh that's what i said. Surely the PS2 didn't sell over a million units in 2012. The Vita can barely sell that. And it was Nov 2011 not 2012.

The PS2 is very popular in evolving countries and it actually recently released in some of those smaller countries. It's still a very popular console due to it's massive amount of games available. I wouldn't be surprised if it did sell over a million units in over a years time. The vita is suffering because of it's lack of games and high price. The PS2 has none of these problems. Understand?