Yakuzaice said: DQX was at 633,827 at the end of 2012 according to Famitsu. Previously you had said DQX would almost certainly sell better on the Wii U, hence where the 1 million figure seemed to be your estimation for the Wii U version. You've also been citing the 3.5-4 million sales of previous DQ titles, so 3-400k seems like a scaled down prediction (especially if that is to the end of June). Regarding NSMBU if nothing gets better (and also nothing gets worse) it would only reach 538k by the end of April.
Fifa in the US outselling the Euro numbers is almost purely due to the launch week. This seems to be a trend with every game in the US that the launch week was significantly higher than any other week. I suppose this isn't surprising, it was about a full week, it was black friday, and that was by far the biggest week for hardware sales. American Wii U owners seem to have bought quite a bit more software, especially at launch. Nearly 2.5 SW per unit in the US, versus 1.6 in Europe for launch. A quick glance shows every single Wii U game selling better in NA than EU. While Fifa selling more in the US is strange, I think it is more down to the Wii U in Europe than EA's handling of it.
Skylanders was number 19 on launch week when number 8 sold 1,618 copies. Since then it has never entered the Wii U top 10. A top 10 where last week number 9 sold less than 198 units. If Skylanders is any higher, that amount is relatively insignificant in the grand scheme.
800k sold in the next 9 weeks just doesn't seem realistic. Especially when we are a few weeks away from the next major software release. Yes they could probably do it with heavy discounts, but retailers are also not going to be eager to order that extra 940k if they had to slice their margins to get rid of their old ones. The current discount of 25 Euros on amazon brings the price about equal to the US price when you remove VAT, and at least Amazon has been running discounts since before Christmas. So I don't expect any appreciable spike.
If Nintendo has plans, they need to implement them quickly. We are more than a third of the way through this quarter and sales aren't picking up yet. The Nintendo Direct didn't seem to have any measurable impact on sales in Japan or Europe. So I don't think new announcements will cut it and it's unlikely that they will spring a game on us before the end of March. I don't know if retailers will be keen on new bundles when they already have the Basic sku rotting on the shelves. The only method that seems likely to succeed would be a price cut, but I don't think they'd do that this early, and if they did it probably wouldn't be till mid March when several games come out. By then it will likely be too late to affect their shipments greatly. I guess it will come down to if their forecast was based on any action by them or if the 4 million was their estimate based on the cards already on the table. If it is the latter I don't think they will be able to respond in time to change things before the quarter is through. It's already a third gone.
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I didn't say it would be ahead of the Wii version by midyear, I said it would sell better - meaning, total lifetime sales. My prediction of 300-400k is short-term, basically to June. I'd expect to see it getting closer to 900k lifetime, but it's hard to judge.
My point about EA's handling of Fifa is that Fifa is a huge franchise in Europe, EA should have been able to drive sales of the game on all systems. The fact that Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed on the Wii U was able to sell at a decent rate (relative to Wii U sales) in the UK proves that the problem wasn't Fifa being multiplatform, Wii U system sales, or anything like that.
As for Skylanders, I'm not sure what you're arguing about - as I said, I'd thought the franchise was doing better in the UK than it actually was.
800k in the next 9 weeks isn't a given, but it's achievable, if Nintendo handles things properly. Like I said, I'm assuming Nintendo has a plan to get themselves to that 4 million shipped number. And you note that it depends on whether Nintendo was basing the estimate on the "cards already on the table". The reason why it takes about 4 weeks for Nintendo to release their financial report is that they have to do analysis and make plans before reporting to investors. If the projections were already looking unlikely on January 23rd (time of the Wii U Direct), they wouldn't have left them at those values on January 26th. They could easily have reduced it to 3.5 million and saved face in April with little impact in January. So I stand by my prediction that they've got some plans to push the system, that don't involve actual price cuts (note: they could bundle NSMB U with both the basic and premium packs for the next 6 months without upping the price, and thus have an effective price cut without an actual price cut).
The very fact that Nintendo held that Wii U Direct, which announced more than we'd normally hear from Nintendo, suggests that Nintendo did make new plans, and are already in the process of enacting them. And Iwata wouldn't have blatantly ruled out any price cut on January 26th if recent numbers were a concern to Nintendo - he could easily have couched it in terms like "We do not currently expect to require a price cut" - thereby enabling them to simply go "situation has changed, we need to drop the price", and there's no problem.