The Wii caught on so well because many people were intimidated by the standard videogame controller.  We take it for granted, but a normal controller is not intuitive at all.  It's got two sticks, some kind of pad that looks like a plus sign, triggers, and a bunch of buttons.  Many people take one look and don't even try.  They would have to learn how to work it first and most of them aren't interested enough in games to make that much effort.  They want something they can learn to play in two minutes.  That's why Wii Sports and the Wii went viral.  I've spoken with so many non-gamers who went to a party somewhere, bowled or played tennis on a Wii, then went out and bought one the next day.  I even talked to a 50 year old construction foreman who said he bought one after playing it at a dinner part and having it tell him that, in his words, he was "fat" and needed to work out.  True story.  It was like he was telling me about the most amazing technology in the world.

The Wii U's gamepad doesn't appeal to casuals the same way.  It's not nearly as dynamic or intuitive.  It might even be -more- intimidating than a normal gamepad.

There is also the possiblity that many of those casuals weren't going to buy another console now no matter what.  That's what I think.  Many of the people who bought a Wii are happy with what they have, or maybe unhappy, but either way they're not going to buy another gaming console any time soon.  They have something to play Dance Central on, or workout with, or break out for parties.  They're content and have no interest in upgrading or keeping up with an expensive hobby.  In that regard, I think the Wii U was going to lose market share from the Wii no matter what.  The Wii had a non-sustainable consumer base.

Still, if I were Nintendo, I would shift focus away from the gamepad somewhat and market the Wii U as the Wii 2.  Show the gamepad some but also show that it does motion controls.  Make casuals think that it's like a Wii, only better.  Instead of displaying how it's different, display how it's the same.  I don't think a lot of them really even understand what the Wii U is right now.

price point is only 50$ more, wii launched at 249$, wii u basic is 299$, nintendo can drop it 249$ and take a small loss, thats not the problem though, the problem is nintendo  is not a brand gamers care about anymore, wii sold as a wii sports and wii fit machine, played it, enjoyed and are now done with it, i predicted 35 million for the wii u, now i'm thinking it might not even sell 25.

I don't really speak for everyone here but I will say this about the Gamepad. It's a godsend.

I have three kids a wife and one TV. Guess what plays on the TV 90% of the time? Kids shows. About 8% of the remainder is eaten up by TV/Movie time with the wife. That leaves me with about 2% of the TV time to game. My gaming got so sparse that I didn't even buy Mass Effect 3 until September because I was still playing Skyward Sword, Skyrim, and Arkham City. I finally finished Mass Effect 3 right before Christmas when I got my WiiU. It took nearly 4 months to finish that game. To put some perspective on that, I played Mass Effect 1 on my Computer (where no one bathered me for the TV) and finished it in a week and a half.

Back in August I bought a 2nd TV for my office but I still couldn't game because I had to go down to the basement to play while everyone else stayed upstairs. If my wife needed any help with the kids she'd have to go all the way down to the basement to get me. This lead to numerous arguments so I gave up on the idea. As a result my game time got regulated to Friday and Saturday nights after 11pm. This left me with maybe 6-10 hours of game time per week depending on how tired I wanted to be Saturday and Sunday. If we had things to do on either of those days I'd find myself with less than 4 hours a week to game on consoles.

I was leaning heavily on my 3DS and Vita during the months leading up to the WiiU. While there are great games on both systems it kind of sucked that my AC was a 3/4-assed port and the CoD I could play was absolute garbage. Now that I have a WiiU I easily get enough game time in to play AC3, CoD, and the new Mario. Then I can leave the Friday and Saturday for ZombieU.

I can't be the only one that loves this hobby and finds himself in a similar situation. I'm the target market for this system and I imagine that eventually others like me will find out how great the WiiU really is for us.

Wasn't the Wii more expensive at launch than the Wii u? It was here in Aus.

The Wii price launch was $249... $50 cheaper than the basic Wii U set.

The Wii was $399 here and the Wii U launched at the $350-450 range. So about $50 cheaper in Australia for the standard edition.

At Wii launch $399 AUD was equal to $315 USD... now $350 AUD is equal to $360 USD.

The US dollar became weaker but in fact the Wii U is more expensive.

Are you going to get a link to back that up or should I get a mop and bucket to clean that up off the floor?

The main Wii crowd isn't going to even consider considering that.

i wish nintendo would make an ad that says....
"NINTENDO Doomed since 1890"

I wish there were more screens!