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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

DanneSandin on 14 January 2013
HappySqurriel said:
Without knowing what Sony and Microsoft are releasing, I think it is foolish to make much of a prediction about the Wii U's lifetime sales ...

People are mostly predicting massive success for the PS4 and "XBox 720" based on unrealistic assumptions about what Sony and Microsoft will produce; and making even more unrealistic assumptions of what these systems will sell for. In reality, Sony and Microsoft will have to deal with trade-offs and balance their desire to attract a "hardcore" market (high end device) with their desire to attract a broader market (accessable system at a low price) and there is nothing saying that these companies will get the balance right.

With that in mind, with the 3DS we saw that Nintendo was willing to go to extreme lengths to make their system successful, and with the PS-Vita we've seen that Sony is unwilling or unable to take the same kinds of action to improve the sales of their system; and we don't know to what extent Microsoft can afford to lose money to increase sales for a system. It is entirely plausable that Nintendo could "fix" the Wii U by E3, Sony and Microsoft could struggle with launching their systems, and Sony (and/or Microsoft) might be unwilling or unable to take action to increase their system's sales.

Seriously, everyone should read this post at least twice - and that's why I'm quoting it! That's some very good points.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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Tarumon on 14 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Without knowing what Sony and Microsoft are releasing, I think it is foolish to make much of a prediction about the Wii U's lifetime sales ...

People are mostly predicting massive success for the PS4 and "XBox 720" based on unrealistic assumptions about what Sony and Microsoft will produce; and making even more unrealistic assumptions of what these systems will sell for. In reality, Sony and Microsoft will have to deal with trade-offs and balance their desire to attract a "hardcore" market (high end device) with their desire to attract a broader market (accessable system at a low price) and there is nothing saying that these companies will get the balance right.

With that in mind, with the 3DS we saw that Nintendo was willing to go to extreme lengths to make their system successful, and with the PS-Vita we've seen that Sony is unwilling or unable to take the same kinds of action to improve the sales of their system; and we don't know to what extent Microsoft can afford to lose money to increase sales for a system. It is entirely plausable that Nintendo could "fix" the Wii U by E3, Sony and Microsoft could struggle with launching their systems, and Sony (and/or Microsoft) might be unwilling or unable to take action to increase their system's sales.

Seriously, everyone should read this post at least twice - and that's why I'm quoting it! That's some very good points.

Too rational.  People want to see blood.  Wii is doomed!!! (I just cant bring myself to jinxing Wii U)



Metallicube on 14 January 2013
ninjablade said:
TheSource said:

You can look at it two ways, the Wii U has a lot of demand that is repressed by the higher price, and it will perk up by a 1/3 or 1/2 once its $250, or there isn't that much demand and price cuts won't help much. The latter is probably a 40m trajectory, the former is maybe a 70-80m trajectory. The middle is most likely, that's what happened with PS3, it perked up with price cuts but it just never had the demand of PS2, or anywhere near it. 

Presumably, Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, 3D Mario, and the Wii ___ series sequels will have some kind of push. Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and RPGS would be interesting on the system too.

I personally lean to like 10m Japan / 50m US & Europe / 10m all others but it's early yet.

comparing it with the ps3 is the worst comparison, 299.99$-349$ vs 499$-599$, lets not forget the 360 and ps3 sold great at 299$-399$ price point. i really doubt nintendo dropping the price to 249$-299$ is gonna start help sales much.

You're probably right, a price drop won't help much. However, games will. That is the main reason PS3 eventually gained momentum, not price. It started with a pretty weak library its first couple years and now is home to games like Uncharted, GOW, GT, Call of Duty, Killzone, Skyrim, AC, etc.. I feel the same will happen with Wii U, at least to an extent. Right now the only interesting games on Wii U are NSMB, and maaaybe Zombie U is you're in the minority of gamers who really like survival horror. But I really feel 95% of its quality library has yet to be released, and a good part of that has yet to even be announced.



o_O.Q on 14 January 2013

imo its nonsensical to predict how a console will do when its only been on the market for such a short space of time



DanneSandin on 14 January 2013
HappySqurriel said:
One thing a lot of people seem to miss when it comes to how consoles did in the last generation was the massive growth in multi-platform ownership; and, while the PS3+Wii or XBox 360+Wii configurations were (probably) the most common, people have shown a willingness to purchase additional platforms when they demonstrate value.

With this in mind, the challenge for Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft in the new generation is not how to convince consumers to buy their console instead of their competition as much as it is to produce enough value to convince gamers to buy their system regardless of what other systems they already own.

This may (potentially) be the problem that Nintendo is having with the Wii U because, while it is a very fun system to play, I'm not sure Nintendo has released games that really demonstrate that the Wii U is different enough from existing platforms. Nintendoland is full of promise, and many of the mini-games could be expanded into full games that demonstrate this, but (being that they're just mini-games) they're limited in how good of a demonstration they are; and it is difficult to argue that New Super Mario U is effective at demonstrating the new functionality of the Wii U tablet.

Obviously, Nintendo has time to deliver on this, but if they can successfuly demonstrate value there is little reason to believe that they're limited in the sales they can achieve.

I really should make a hbit of qouting your posts... Oh, wait, I think I already have... ^^

I think you're making an excellent point!! They should really push the local multiplayer/asymmetric gameplay to differentiate themselves from the up coming PS720... Or I could see SOny trying to steal that position with their PS4/Vita combination.

But there's really one obstacle to this, and that's the failing economy...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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Fireforgey on 14 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
phenom08 said:
Lol the big guns haven't even been played yet. Wii U Sports, Mario Kart U, and Super Smash Bros. will send the WiiU well past 50 million lol.


We'll see. I think the casual swell is falling down and the gamers who truly care will buy the product. Pachter assessed the numbers and stated that the majority of Wii U owners currently are hardcore Nintendo fans. Is that far fetched? I think not. He says some offish things sometimes but I think hes spot on right now. He should just stick to what hes good at which is predictions based on analyzing the market. 


You seem to be forgetting something very important.  He once said (I forget which episode) that he has never understood Nintendo. 

I used to watch him regularly a while back when few people were talking about the Wii and the Wii U was mere rumor.  For that time I found very intelligent statements, well rounded answers and added to my knowledge of the industry.

Then......He started talking about Nintendo and the Wii U.  The man can't understand Nintendo for the life of him and has ALWAYS been wrong about that company.  He can't predict what they will do, he can't predict its effects, he can't predict the company's sales.

Nintendo does things in a very wierd way that no other company has been able to follow.  With the Gamecube the sold less than the Xbox and yet made a profit while the Xbox lost billions.  They went in a very wierd direction with the Wii when everyone else was in a technology arms race.  They had an incredibly successful system (the GBA) and yet they killed it early in favor of a dual screen handheld.

Despite defying all expectations and doing everything "wrong" they succeed.  They don't always come out on top, but they always succeed.  Wasn't the 3DS going to be killed by both Iphones AND the PSV?  What happened there?  Its the same thing over again, whenever a company does something peopel don't understand, they predict its demise.  Nintendo has never been understood, and so it has always been doomed.

There is one law in the vide game industry, never underestimate Nintendo.



DanneSandin on 14 January 2013
Tarumon said:
DanneSandin said:
HappySqurriel said:
Without knowing what Sony and Microsoft are releasing, I think it is foolish to make much of a prediction about the Wii U's lifetime sales ...

People are mostly predicting massive success for the PS4 and "XBox 720" based on unrealistic assumptions about what Sony and Microsoft will produce; and making even more unrealistic assumptions of what these systems will sell for. In reality, Sony and Microsoft will have to deal with trade-offs and balance their desire to attract a "hardcore" market (high end device) with their desire to attract a broader market (accessable system at a low price) and there is nothing saying that these companies will get the balance right.

With that in mind, with the 3DS we saw that Nintendo was willing to go to extreme lengths to make their system successful, and with the PS-Vita we've seen that Sony is unwilling or unable to take the same kinds of action to improve the sales of their system; and we don't know to what extent Microsoft can afford to lose money to increase sales for a system. It is entirely plausable that Nintendo could "fix" the Wii U by E3, Sony and Microsoft could struggle with launching their systems, and Sony (and/or Microsoft) might be unwilling or unable to take action to increase their system's sales.

Seriously, everyone should read this post at least twice - and that's why I'm quoting it! That's some very good points.

Too rational.  People want to see blood.  Wii is doomed!!! (I just cant bring myself to jinxing Wii U)

Yeah, it's pretty sad really... rational argument goes on by unnoticed, while screaming out for blood gets the most responses...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 14 January 2013
archbrix said:
People need to be realistic here. Pointing to sales in Europe right now or the fact that WiiU was outsold by the competition this holiday as a solid indication of how well WiiU will be selling in the future is a flawed metric for many reasons. Have people forgotten how the PS360 were outsold by the PS2 for the first couple of years, how the GBA outsold the DS initially, or how the 3DS was barely managing 60k a week globally there for a while?

Just wait until next holiday when the cheaper WiiU and some big games go up against the new consoles. And how about its third and fourth holidays as low as $199 with a solid library and a new Mario Kart or Smash Bros? That's likely when we'll see it looking like 360 and PS3 did this last holiday.

Pachter's prediction is set low, but the people thinking WiiU is only going to manage 30 or 35m globally in its entire life are kidding themselves.

The PSP outsold the DS initially as well, and now the DS has doubled it's lead over PSP...

But I'd say that as long as Wii U only gets 1st party games the sales won't pick up too much... It doesn't have a Wii Sports, and Wii Fit U will not sell as well as the original - so a lot of the biggest selling IP's from the last gen is gone, and what Nintendo's left with is their old and trusted IP's - and as evident by the GC and N64, they can't push a console over 40m...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

GuyDuke on 14 January 2013

What that necessary to post it? Honestly. Why posting such statement from a man we all know got close to absolute zero credibility?



S.T.A.G.E. on 14 January 2013
J_Allard said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
J_Allard said:
If the 360 can top 80 million this gen with absolutely no support in a racist Japan market, then Nintendo can easily get more than 45 million considering they are strong in every market.


The 360 split Sonys market which is a far more stable multimedia/gaming market. Its easy to see why they gained, after splitting a 150 million marketshare.

And Nintendo grew their market from 22 million to 100+ million. Where are those gamers going to go? Enough will stay with Nintendo to make this prediction a typical Pachter LULZ.

What Nintendo needs is for the Wii to be off the market and some WiiU killer apps on the shelves.


Watch....the market Nintendo tapped is fickle and dont care about gaming. They bought it just for momentary fun. Neilsens reported that the PS3/360 had more activity than the Wii even when it was selling double what they had. This means it was only a momentary fad.