And Nintendo grew their market from 22 million to 100+ million. Where are those gamers going to go? Enough will stay with Nintendo to make this prediction a typical Pachter LULZ.

What Nintendo needs is for the Wii to be off the market and some WiiU killer apps on the shelves.

You can look at it two ways, the Wii U has a lot of demand that is repressed by the higher price, and it will perk up by a 1/3 or 1/2 once its $250, or there isn't that much demand and price cuts won't help much. The latter is probably a 40m trajectory, the former is maybe a 70-80m trajectory. The middle is most likely, that's what happened with PS3, it perked up with price cuts but it just never had the demand of PS2, or anywhere near it. 

Presumably, Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, 3D Mario, and the Wii ___ series sequels will have some kind of push. Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and RPGS would be interesting on the system too.

I personally lean to like 10m Japan / 50m US & Europe / 10m all others but it's early yet.

360 sold 1.1 million units in december 2006, with ps2 selling 1.4 million, 2005 360 was sold out every sinlge system availble at launch, so even though ps2 out sold it, 360 had healthy numbers and had a crazy attach ratio with games.

comparing it with the ps3 is the worst comparison, 299.99$-349$ vs 499$-599$, lets not forget the 360 and ps3 sold great at 299$-399$ price point. i really doubt nintendo dropping the price to 249$-299$ is gonna start help sales much.

The wii u selling around 45m units would be amazing, considering it lack the "it" factor the wii originally had, and it will be outdated in about 2 years

This guy must be on crack, 60 million minimum.

Except perhaps for the game attach ratio, I don't think you're making the case you think you are.

The WiiU outsold the 360 by over 1m units by the end of their respective launch years, so its numbers are plenty healthy. And am I to assume you believe WiiU won't manage 1.1m in December 2013? If so, you're likely in for a surprise.

meh, of course it out sold the 360, cause it was completly sold out, both gamecube and xbox out sold the wiiu by the end of there launch years, gee i wonder why is that, maybe it cause they had stock unlike the wii, 360, ps2. i will put i'm a dumb donkey under my sig if wii u does 1.1 million  units in december 2013 npd.

I always watch pach-attack, and he really does have some points. If the PS720 is a major leap, Wii U won't get much 3rd party support and therefore sell less. It's really quite simple. But I'd say that 40m is the low end of sales for the Wii U, and not 25m as the pachter claims. I'm expecting roughly 225-250m HW sales at the end of this gen, and for the Wii U to only get roughly 10% of those sales are quite astounding!