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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

S.T.A.G.E. on 14 January 2013
007BondAgent said:
The wii u selling around 45m units would be amazing, considering it lack the "it" factor the wii originally had, and it will be outdated in about 2 years


I agree. I dont know why people are expecting the same sales when the Wii U hardware is of more substance utilitywise compared to the Wii. The casuals would rather buy an Ipad.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 14 January 2013
archbrix said:
ninjablade said:
archbrix said:
People need to be realistic here. Pointing to sales in Europe right now or the fact that WiiU was outsold by the competition this holiday as a solid indication of how well WiiU will be selling in the future is a flawed metric for many reasons. Have people forgotten how the PS360 were outsold by the PS2 for the first couple of years, how the GBA outsold the DS initially, or how the 3DS was barely managing 60k a week globally there for a while?

Just wait until next holiday when the cheaper WiiU and some big games go up against the new consoles. And how about its third and fourth holidays as low as $199 with a solid library and a new Mario Kart or Smash Bros? That's likely when we'll see it looking like 360 and PS3 did this last holiday.

Pachter's prediction is set low, but the people thinking WiiU is only going to manage 30 or 35m globally in its entire life are kidding themselves.

360 sold 1.1 million units in december 2006, with ps2 selling 1.4 million, 2005 360 was sold out every sinlge system availble at launch, so even though ps2 out sold it, 360 had healthy numbers and had a crazy attach ratio with games.

Except perhaps for the game attach ratio, I don't think you're making the case you think you are.

The WiiU outsold the 360 by over 1m units by the end of their respective launch years, so its numbers are plenty healthy. And am I to assume you believe WiiU won't manage 1.1m in December 2013? If so, you're likely in for a surprise.


You must factor in price and the fact that people were waiting for Sonys move to decide whether to purchase the 360 or PS3. The 360 didnt have any major core gamers at that time either. Pachter stated that the crowd who bought the first two million Wii U's are Nintnedos core audience.



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 14 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
J_Allard said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
J_Allard said:
If the 360 can top 80 million this gen with absolutely no support in a racist Japan market, then Nintendo can easily get more than 45 million considering they are strong in every market.


The 360 split Sonys market which is a far more stable multimedia/gaming market. Its easy to see why they gained, after splitting a 150 million marketshare.

And Nintendo grew their market from 22 million to 100+ million. Where are those gamers going to go? Enough will stay with Nintendo to make this prediction a typical Pachter LULZ.

What Nintendo needs is for the Wii to be off the market and some WiiU killer apps on the shelves.


Watch....the market Nintendo tapped is fickle and dont care about gaming. They bought it just for momentary fun. Neilsens reported that the PS3/360 had more activity than the Wii even when it was selling double what they had. This means it was only a momentary fad. 

this is the exact problem nintendo are going through right now. how many actual nintendo fans bought the wii and how many new fans did nintendo actually gain? wii got nearly all of its sales from people that dont care about gaming and never will. casual girls and old people aint gonna give a damn about the successor to the wii.



dsgrue3 on 14 January 2013

Eager to see how the Wii U holds up against the competition's next gen. That will be the true test. Predictions at this point aren't going to be very accurate. I think Wii U could end up under 40 M LTD.



ninjablade on 14 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
archbrix said:
ninjablade said:
archbrix said:
People need to be realistic here. Pointing to sales in Europe right now or the fact that WiiU was outsold by the competition this holiday as a solid indication of how well WiiU will be selling in the future is a flawed metric for many reasons. Have people forgotten how the PS360 were outsold by the PS2 for the first couple of years, how the GBA outsold the DS initially, or how the 3DS was barely managing 60k a week globally there for a while?

Just wait until next holiday when the cheaper WiiU and some big games go up against the new consoles. And how about its third and fourth holidays as low as $199 with a solid library and a new Mario Kart or Smash Bros? That's likely when we'll see it looking like 360 and PS3 did this last holiday.

Pachter's prediction is set low, but the people thinking WiiU is only going to manage 30 or 35m globally in its entire life are kidding themselves.

360 sold 1.1 million units in december 2006, with ps2 selling 1.4 million, 2005 360 was sold out every sinlge system availble at launch, so even though ps2 out sold it, 360 had healthy numbers and had a crazy attach ratio with games.

Except perhaps for the game attach ratio, I don't think you're making the case you think you are.

The WiiU outsold the 360 by over 1m units by the end of their respective launch years, so its numbers are plenty healthy. And am I to assume you believe WiiU won't manage 1.1m in December 2013? If so, you're likely in for a surprise.


You must factor in price and the fact that people were waiting for Sonys move to decide whether to purchase the 360 or PS3. The 360 didnt have any major core gamers at that time either. Pachter stated that the crowd who bought the first two million Wii U's are Nintnedos core audience.

you must factor in that 360 sold that much units cause its sold out, even the first xbox did out sold the wii u by 700,000 and it was a new comer.



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J_Allard on 14 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:
J_Allard said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
J_Allard said:
If the 360 can top 80 million this gen with absolutely no support in a racist Japan market, then Nintendo can easily get more than 45 million considering they are strong in every market.


The 360 split Sonys market which is a far more stable multimedia/gaming market. Its easy to see why they gained, after splitting a 150 million marketshare.

And Nintendo grew their market from 22 million to 100+ million. Where are those gamers going to go? Enough will stay with Nintendo to make this prediction a typical Pachter LULZ.

What Nintendo needs is for the Wii to be off the market and some WiiU killer apps on the shelves.


Watch....the market Nintendo tapped is fickle and dont care about gaming. They bought it just for momentary fun. Neilsens reported that the PS3/360 had more activity than the Wii even when it was selling double what they had. This means it was only a momentary fad. 


They don't need all 100+ million to come back, but more than 40-45 million will. And that doesn't mean anything about it being a fad. It means different type of userbase (lots of children), different abilities of the console (can't play DVD's), different online offerings (next to nothing in terms of new releases), different way you play games (it's a lot more tiring to play many Wii games). Means lots of things. Also, unlike television, Neilsen studies in video games are not taken very seriously. A lot like Michael Pachter.



HappySqurriel on 14 January 2013

A price cut will help Wii U's sales
Big game releases will help the Wii U's sales
Sony and Microsoft announcing/releasing their system will help the Wii U's sales
and so on ...

At the moment, Nintendo is selling a system that is just above what people (probably) want to pay for it without the killer app it needs and are facing competition that doesn't really exist and people's imagination are running away with them about how awesome it will be.



ninjablade on 14 January 2013
HappySqurriel said:
A price cut will help Wii U's sales
Big game releases will help the Wii U's sales
Sony and Microsoft announcing/releasing their system will help the Wii U's sales
and so on ...

At the moment, Nintendo is selling a system that is just above what people (probably) want to pay for it without the killer app it needs and are facing competition that doesn't really exist and people's imagination are running away with them about how awesome it will be.

never heard that one before, these systems are gonna make the wiimu look really dated, if anything that might kill t wii u sales.



mushroomboy5 on 14 January 2013

well, as another analyst said recently (can't remember where so can't link it):"If nintendo fails this gen it probably means everyone's f@#ked!"



Pavolink on 14 January 2013
menx64 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/bx2boj/pach-attack--thq--wii-u---ads-too-

My prediction that I've made for a month is now in line with Michael Pachter. I predicted between 40-45 million, at best 50 million. This means the games and marketing need to pick up or else.


 That is not something to brag about TBH.


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