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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

S.T.A.G.E. on 13 January 2013
Sharu said:
70% from 100 mln is 70 mln, by the way!
And also - did you ever thought that if 70 mln people sold their Wii's on Ebay, then there are 70 mln people who bought these Wiis? So whats the big deal? There's still owner at every wii sold and these owners still can buy games for it!


I didnt notice it that the Wii had sold 100 million yet. I guess 70 million sounds about right then for the console returns. That console had momentary value at best. It satisfied its audience for four years and then the sales dropped quickly.



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Pavolink on 13 January 2013

Not bad. But at this time that sounds very optimistic...



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Soundwave on 13 January 2013

I think Wii Fit U and Wii Sports U will be a lot like Nintendogs + cats on 3DS.

Nintendogs (DS) -- 24.49 millon WW

Nintendogs + cats (3DS) -- 2.86 million WW

Brain Training on the 3DS at least in Japan also fizzled out compared to the older Brain Training games.

These things have their time (not even specific to Nintendo, you can look at Guitar Hero/Rockband too, Just Dance is probably on its way out in a year or two also).

I think Wii Sports U would do better than Wii Fit U though.

Also New Super Mario Bros. U *is* a "heavy hitter", lol, Zelda, Smash Bros., etc. are all smaller franchises. The only franchise Nintendo has that's reliably bigger than 2D Mario is Mario Kart. 

I think Wii U is much more like the GameCube in appeal, it will center around hardcore Nintendo fans and kids as the main audience. But I think it will do about double the GameCube anyway with a better showing in Europe and Japan long term. Which is SNES territory (my guess is 40-46 million), which isn't bad. 



Metallicube on 14 January 2013

You would, Pachter.. You would.. Pretty surprised he even decided to go that high. I feel more like 70 mil..

Damn I must be turning into a Nintendo hater, my prediction is only 30 million more than Nintendo's #1 troll, Pachter! O_o

But yeah.. any console that is home to: Mario Kart, Smash Bros, 2D and 3D Mario, Wii Fit, Call of Duty, Zelda, Monster Hunter, and Dragon Quest will almost sell more than his prediction simply by default..



menx64 on 14 January 2013
S.T.A.G.E. said:

http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/bx2boj/pach-attack--thq--wii-u---ads-too-

My prediction that I've made for a month is now in line with Michael Pachter. I predicted between 40-45 million, at best 50 million. This means the games and marketing need to pick up or else.


 That is not something to brag about TBH.



Menx64

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ninjablade on 14 January 2013
Pavolink said:
Not bad. But at this time that sounds very optimistic...


yea i think it would be great if it could sell 35 million.



ninjablade on 14 January 2013
menx64 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/bx2boj/pach-attack--thq--wii-u---ads-too-

My prediction that I've made for a month is now in line with Michael Pachter. I predicted between 40-45 million, at best 50 million. This means the games and marketing need to pick up or else.


 That is not something to brag about TBH.

LOL patcher is horrible at predicting, of couse now its easier to predict for patcher, since we have numbers and the demand is not there.



chriscox1121 on 14 January 2013

Well there is no way it's only selling 25 million, that would put it at 5 million a year...not happening.




chriscox1121 on 14 January 2013

Double post




archbrix on 14 January 2013

People need to be realistic here. Pointing to sales in Europe right now or the fact that WiiU was outsold by the competition this holiday as a solid indication of how well WiiU will be selling in the future is a flawed metric for many reasons. Have people forgotten how the PS360 were outsold by the PS2 for the first couple of years, how the GBA outsold the DS initially, or how the 3DS was barely managing 60k a week globally there for a while?

Just wait until next holiday when the cheaper WiiU and some big games go up against the new consoles. And how about its third and fourth holidays as low as $199 with a solid library and a new Mario Kart or Smash Bros? That's likely when we'll see it looking like 360 and PS3 did this last holiday.

Pachter's prediction is set low, but the people thinking WiiU is only going to manage 30 or 35m globally in its entire life are kidding themselves.